Musings —11.05.2012 09:31 AM—
In the U.S., popular vote don’t matter so much. Sure, the ebbs and flows of the avalanche of national polls have been plenty fun to watch. Sure.
But Barack Obama, my guy since 2004, has been winning this thing for quite some time.
I’ll have more to say about this in my Sun column tomorrow morning – and on Sun News Network, starting tomorrow night – but the bottom line is that there is only one U.S. pundit worth paying any attention to: Nate Silver. He’s a certfiable god-like genius, consulted for his analyses of everything from the electoral college to major league baseball.
Silver’s take, which you can fairly regard as gospel:
Based on the simulations that we ran on early Sunday evening, for example, Mr. Obama would have an 85 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if the popular vote were exactly tied nationally. This is where Mr. Obama’s Electoral College advantages, particularly in Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, would be of their maximum benefit. Given a tied national popular vote, we would expect Mr. Obama to underperform his polls slightly in these states — but since he leads by a minimum of about three points in the polling average in each one, he could underperform those numbers and still win them.
Bottom line? It’s all over, conservatives. Thanks for coming out, and go suck an egg.