11.05.2012 10:13 PM

In Tuesday’s Sun: giving it the old electoral college try

Ever since the first presidential debate, has Mitt Romney been steadily gaining on Barack Obama?

Yes.

Has the Republican presidential nominee erased the Democratic president’s substantial lead?

Yes to that, too.

Has the GOP run a well-funded, focused campaign, one that has put the Democratic machine on the ropes?

Yes, yes, yes.

So, taking all of that into account — and the indisputable fact Romney and Obama are now effectively tied in national polls leading into Tuesday’s historic vote count — can Obama lose the election?

Well, actually, no. No he can’t.

13 Comments

  1. DJ says:

    As GW Bush demonstrated in 2000, a victory is a victory. Plow ahead like you own the place. Sweet justice for Democrats if Obama squeaks out a victory.

  2. monkey says:

    I generally agree with the assessment. I think Romney’s chances might be slightly better, but I still think Obama has about 3:1 or 4:1 odds in terms of who wins the electoral college. The reality is in the safe red states Romney will win those by much larger margins than Obama wins in the safe blue states while in the swing states, most will go for Obama but by very narrow margins. Of the swing states, North Carolina is the only one I would be shocked to see Obama win, while Florida Romney has a very slight edge, while Virginia and Colorado are 50/50 chances. Iowa, New Hampshire, and Iowa are close and if America wasn’t so polarized and there were more undecideds I would say they are too close to call, but considering the undecided vote is around 2% I think Obama will take those three. Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will be closer than 2008, but with not a single poll showing Romney ahead it is pretty wishful thinking to think he will actually win any of those. They will be close yes, it will take a few hours and possibly longer before any networks call them, but I still am pretty confident Obama will win them. Now if one is trying to predict the popular vote, then it is truly a toss up, but it is the electoral vote not the popular vote that matters. The only interesting thing is if Obama loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral vote, will their be a strong public outcry to change the system for electing presidents; after all prior to 2000 the last time a president won without winning the popular vote was in the 1800s, but with two cases in a 12 year span, that might make the public take the issue more seriously. Off course I still think Obama has a slight edge on the popular vote, but not like he does on the electoral vote.

  3. jonevan says:

    Life is more than arithmetic! If O. loses the popular vote he will become a lame duck president with little clout to do battle with congress and will have to compromise, compromise and more of the latter. America is already an ungovernable nation and this will only add to that.

  4. Mark says:

    I can’t verify the validity of this, but since some kid, somewhere has inevitably been in such a space, possibly worth posting.
    MT
    http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2012-10-29-392_10151126740999685_431582006_n.jpg

  5. Mike B says:

    I don’t see 303 as a worst case scenario.

    As a ‘worst case’ this means that there is no way Obama loses Ohio or Virginia. (Unless you are getting to the 303 number without counting those states as Obama wins.)

    Both states, while likely Obama, are by no means guaranteed.

    Obama will probably win, but a win with less than 280 electoral college votes is definitely possible.

    GOTV is the key today.

  6. Matt says:

    I’ve got Obama 288 Vs. Romney 250 on my highly personal, non-scientific probably entirely false generalization based prediction. Obama holds Ohio (Hamilton County is key there) and Romney takes Florida. I’m with Torgo on the 0.5 – 2% of the popular vote in favour of Obama as well which matters exactly 0% of the time.

  7. Conservative Socialist says:

    I predict 303-235 for Obama. Romney will improve on McCain’s 2008 performance by taking all of his states plus Indiana, North Carolina and Florida.

  8. Philippe says:

    Romney gained some points after the Denver debate, but was never in a position to win this thing. Even with the crazy 3rd world voter-suppression shenanigans by Republican Governors in several key States, he’s a dead duck.

  9. Greg from Calgary says:

    If voter suppression wasn’t such an underhanded tactic by the Republicans I doubt the election would be even this close.

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