05.29.2014 05:17 PM

Your Thursday Ipsos

Ontario Popular Vote Tightens as Liberals Rally (34%) to Within Two Points of Tories (36%), NDP Soften (23%)
But Likely Turnout Shows Motivated PC Voters (41%) Delivering Big at the Ballot Box over Anemic Liberal Voters (29%) and Growing NDP (25%)

Verdict: nobody engaged, still, except always-motivated conservatives.



  1. Al in Cranbrook says:


    Is not the 905 traditionally quite Conservative??? That’s the one aspect of this poll that I find surprising.

    My prediction holds.

  2. GSW says:

    I can see Wynne and Horwath ganging up against Hudak in the final strokes of the election campaign to deny Hudak a majority based on low turnout because normally voting Liberals are staying home sitting on their hands. Liberals and Dippers will both be in panic mode if they can’t GOTV!

  3. Matt says:


    Some really weird things in the analysis of the numbers.

    – Among the 51% of Ontarians who say that ‘nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote’ on June 12, the Tories receive 41% of the vote (up 5 points compared to overall figures), while the Liberals sink to 29% (down 5 points). The NDP strengthen to 25% (up 2 points)

    – NDP losing major ground in SW Ontario. PC’s back in 2nd in GTA, NDP continue ti lead in the North, Libs now ahead in the 905, PC way out in front in central and east

    – As the Liberals gain in support in the popular vote, the proportion of their supporters who are likely to show up on Election Day and won’t change their mind beforehand decreases.

  4. Matt says:

    Should be PC’s back in 2nd in the 416 (Toronto)

  5. Lance says:

    If that is the same poll I skimmed earlier, the undecided was very high, as well as the impetus for change. How that jives, I’m not sure, except maybe the desire for change is high, yet they just don’t know what the change looks like yet.

  6. TrueNorthist says:

    I wonder what the OPCs offered Klees in return for his help? You know it’s gotta be big, really big, considering that the knife is still sticking out of his back. Some plum patronage job, or maybe some board appointment from a major backer? I wonder if anyone has the nads to ask Hudak what the quid pro quo is?

    • justin says:

      Just because the Pc’s claim it, doesn’t make it true. Matty boy.

      • Matt says:

        Wynne – Deal not done yet.

        Documents – Deal done and will close on July 14.

        No mention of a $317 million building purchase anywhere in the Liberals recent budget.

  7. MississaugaPeter says:

    No poll predicted this:


    “Even NDP leader…himself admits he’s surprised by the results”

    A great debate can change everything. GOTV efforts matter. The undecideds are unpredictable and can cause a result outside the polling margin of error.

    The last week will be crazy. The last week could be a classic.

  8. Ralphie says:

    Just got my NDP election literature in the mail; it’s a big glossy fold out all in colour with a big picture of a smiling Andrea Horwath. Looks impressive and it presents the NDP “Plan that Makes Sense” with each promise listed in a table on a 4 year plan.

    I like what she says about the opposition parties:

    “LIBERALS DON’T MAKE SENSE they waste our tax dollars on scandals while making our lives more and more expensive”

    “TIM HUDAK DOESN’T MAKE SENSE Hudak is not a leader. He is in it for himself and won’t deliver results for you”

    Then in the NDP candidates letter she states: “After ten years of scandal after scandal, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals deserve time in the penalty box.”!!!

    To me that means the NDP will not support another Wynne Liberal minority government, but will they support a Hudak Conservative minority government after June 12th if the NDP only come in third again?

    • Matt says:

      The NDP spent 2 years supporting a government that the keep calling corrupt and scandal ridden.

      They will again.

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