08.02.2016 06:42 AM

Poking through the entrails with less than 100 days to go

Real Clear Politics:


What’s it mean?

  • It means Hillary got a much bigger convention bounce than the short-fingered vulgarian did. 
  • It means the DNC convention – with better visuals, more flags, more patriotism – is the way to go for the next three months. Keep doing what works, folks. 
  • It means that the media, who cannot resist chasing every shiny ball Trump rolls past them, are not helping the bilious “billionaire” as much as they once did. 
  • It means that being organized and disciplined (as the Dems are, as the GOP isn’t) still works. 
  • It means that terrorist attacks – eg., Nice, Munich, etc., that I have always feared as an October Surprise – don’t appear to impact public opinion for long periods of time. These attacks have (sadly) become frequent enough to command less of a hold on passions in a way that benefits Trump (happily). 
  • It means – as I’ve always said – the American people are like people everywhere: they will always gravitate towards the candidate who isn’t a prick. 

17 Comments

  1. Steve T says:

    The Donald is now predicting the election will be “rigged”. Sounds like something you say when you expect to lose. Here’s hoping…

    • Ron says:

      Sure, right up there with ‘the moon landing was faked’. But I don’t think Drumpf is capable of doubting himself.

      To much megalomania.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Steve T,

      Rigged, that stale, old, boiler plate? Guess he has no faith in the American people.

    • Francis says:

      Its the equivalent of a kid losing a race to another kid, then claiming they “didn’t wanna play your stupid game anyway. Plus you got a head start and I wasn’t even trying. I’m going home and taking my toys with me”.

  2. MississaugaPeter says:

    In spite of everything, The Orange’s numbers (minus the Reuter’s outlier) are CONSISTENTLY between 41%-45%.

    I disagree WK, Hillary is in serious trouble. Steady as she goes is not going to do it. I believe that this bump may make folks even complacent.

    IMO, the Convention bump is Bernie’s millions coming on side, nothing else.

    The problem is that the DNC and the Khan stuff has not affected Trump. The Orange’s numbers appear SOLID.

    We will see how solid Hillary’s numbers are after the upcoming nasty book releases, more WikiLeaks, and Trump spending more than $0 in television advertising (while she has 10’s of $M).

    • WestGuy says:

      All the focus on the “who” is missing the “why”. Those polling numbers are people, people who are angy with the political set who they feel either no longer represents their interests or outright represents the interest of the politically connected or insiders and all this election has done since the RNC is reinforce that. Think about it. Two parents get up and slag a political candidate. One is held up as a hero, the other is roundly criticized. A newspaper releases photos of Melania fully naked and nowhere is the defence of feminists that the news was opportunistic and offensive. One side talks fear as a selling point and the other side talks about the fear of the one side getting elected, like that’s a different kind of fear to sell. A lineup of rich and famous enterainment stars get up and no one seems to see why that might be feeding a narrative.

  3. Greg from Calgary says:

    I hope so Warren. I was never so scared as when Trump briefly took a lead except maybe that time we had a Grizzly cross our path out in K-Country near Paddy Flats.

  4. james elder says:

    OMG Kinsella.
    I just realized we are living through the realization of the book “the plot against America” written in 2004. In it Philip Roth posits that a giant celebrity known around the world is nominated to run for President by the Republicans who then defeats Roosevelt in 1940. The man hates Jews and thinks Hitler is a great guy. His name…Charles Lindbergh. Sound familiar? Remind you of anybody?

  5. Ron says:

    prick:
    vulgar slang a penis.
    • a man regarded as stupid, unpleasant, or contemptible

    Trump sure has all of the qualifications. Has he ever considered what may
    happen when reality sets in and he can’t deliver his Nugentian Utopia ?

    My guess is the answer is no, and five minutes after entering the Oval Office
    he would be asking himself ‘What did I get myself in to ?’.

  6. EB says:

    If the election is ‘rigged’, perhaps Trump will be looking for sympathetic generals to make sure he wins anyway.

    Scary thought?

  7. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    The other Warren is doing a better number on Donald than Hillary.

    May I introduce you to the next president? Meet GOTV!

  8. Gilbert says:

    The numbers could change a lot before election day. I think there will be more leaks.

  9. Eric Weiss says:

    As a small-c conservative I’m rooting strongly for a Trump defeat. I think most Canadian conservatives are more in line with the Dems than the GOP anyway. If the defeat is huge and humiliating the better. Then maybe the GOP can purge itself of Trump and the insane Tea Party elements that seem to be running the show there now.

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