09.01.2016 09:39 PM

It’s just a by-election  – but it isn’t nothing, either


15 Comments

  1. Howard says:

    Turnout extremely low however, only 28%.
    Not sure what typical turnout is for byelections.

    • Matt says:

      That’s actually pretty typical for a byelection, especially one where the outcome won’t have ant affect of the balance of power in the Legislature.

  2. Brian says:

    The victory in the by-election can be explained in two words: Kathleen Wynn. Sad to say, she has been a disaster and is succeeding, gloriously, in pushing people like me, who have, for the most part, voted Liberal for most of their adult lives, right into the hands of the Progressive Conservatives. She just doesn’t deserve the support of Ontarians, any longer. My prediction for Ontario, come next election: Kathleen Wynn will be so scandal ridden that she’ll drop out of the race entirely, giving up on her party in the same way that she has managed to give up on truth and common sense throughout her time as Premier. Patrick Brown (not a fan but…) will win with a huge majority and maybe, just maybe, do whatever he can to prosecute the current pile of crooked Liberal Party dung in Ontario. Andrea Horvath, couldn’t win at ring toss let alone in the political world. The NDP will get trounced so badly that she’ll simply curl up into a ball and roll right on out of The Legislature.

    The irony though, is this: Every one of them is pretty much the worst leader we’ve ever seen. Brown scares me. Wynn scares he shit out of me. Horvath is just a piece of furniture. A lamp. She brightens up the room once in a while when somebody turns her on.

    • doconnor says:

      People angry at Wynn never seem to say what they are angry about.

      • Ted H says:

        Exactly, and the alternative is some Conservative twit.

      • godot10 says:

        1) She was involved in the gas plant scandal and the coverup. A billion dollars in taxpayers dollars wasted to help the Liberals get elected.
        2) Her pay-for-play government.
        3) Her pay-for-play government at bargain basement rates. If she is going to allow companies to pay-for-play, they should have been charged a whole lot more. Cisco gave Ontario almost nothing for the dollars it gave to the Liberal Party.
        4) The continuing electricity fiasco which is an enormous burden to ordinary Ontarians, which is de-industrializing Ontario, and guarantees windfall profit to Bay Street friends of the Liberals.
        5) The cap and trade fiasco, where carbon taxes paid by the poor and middle class will go to give massive subsidies to favored businesses, and to pay for most of the cost of electric cars to the 1%.
        6) The CPP expansion fraud, which provide no benefit for the working poor. Their higher premiums go to pay for higher pensions for the middle and upper middle class, while the working poor with see their GIS clawed back dollar for dollar with increased CPP.
        7) Ontario is the most indebted sub-national government in the developed world.
        8) Ontario’s housing bubble.

        How is that for a start?

        • Mike says:

          Didn’t we already have an election where the PCs tried to make the gas plants an issue? It’s not as big an issue to most people as it is to conservatives.

          What exactly is the “electricity fiasco”? Who wouldn’t want lower rates? But how do you realistically achieve that in Ontario? Would prices be any less under a different government? Ontario relies on nuclear which is an expensive option. What other options does Ontario have for electricity generation?

          All parties in Ontario favour some form of carbon tax. While it is true that the PCs have not yet done the full Patrick Brown where they flip flop 4 times before settling on a carbon tax, the leader has been unequivocal that climate change is a man made problem, and that a PC government would bring in a carbon tax.

          How is the provincial government responsible for housing prices? If anything the blame can be laid at the feet of the Bank of Canada and the low cost of borrowing.

        • Bill Templeman says:

          godot10: 2 minute penalty. Wrong fact. Quebec is the most indebted sub-national government in the developed world. Off the ice with you.

  3. David says:

    Before the 2013 BC election, the NDP won a by-election in Chilliwack. Yes, Chilliwack! In the heart of BC’s Bible Belt. We know how the general election turned out for Adrian Dix and the NDP. By-elections are different.

  4. Ian Howard says:

    If the PCs are to win the next election they must focus almost entirely on the McGuinty, Wynne record. Hudak couldn’t resist trying to pull the province too far right and lost two very winnable elections.

  5. Charlie says:

    I’m not plugged into Ontario politics, but general political wisdom dictates that by-elections aren’t the best indicators of broader electoral trends. While the loss/win isn’t insignificant given its historic subtext, I’d be more cautious when trying to extrapolate the results.

    The race seems to have been won by a pretty slim margin, with a significantly lower voter turnout. Its possible that traditional Liberal supporters opted to just stay home instead of taking the time to go and vote seeing as how another election is already going to be held in 2 years.

    Where the candidate factors into the race also matters. With the apparent downturn in public opinions of the OntLibs, the vote could have been suppressed in this race, allowing the new MPP to squeeze a win out.

    With that all said, I’d hesitate to say this is a sign of things to come. I’ve seen politicians win by-elections in tough ridings like this before, only to go into the next election and have their party decimated. Its highly possible that this new MPP holds his seat, but to say its foreshadowing future events is naive.

    One this is for sure: if the PCs had lost this by-election, Patrick Brown would’ve been in some hot water with core PC supporters. No leader should ever been shifting positions on the even of an election, no matter how sincere the motive may be. If Brown did this before a by-election, whats to say he won’t shift on something big in the next provincial election? Thats a question that probably pricking some PC supporters right now.

  6. James Smith says:

    Troublesome, yes.
    But also very similar results to the Etobicoke Lakeshore by-election of 2013 where Tory Municipal Councillor Doug Holiday won only to loose in the general election. Mr Cho while a Tory, stood up to the Fords, so I think he is seen as more a Red Tory. (Good luck to him in THAT caucus BTW)
    Remains to be seen if the obsequious Tory leader will be any better than his predecessor in 2018.

  7. Matt says:

    While it’s always preferable to win any by-election, I’m not really sure what to make of this one.

    As we all know the Hudak PC’s took a riding in Etobicoke in a 2013 by-election and the NDP took several away from the Liberals before the 2014 general election. Then in that election, the Liberals took back most of those lost in the by-elections and went from a minority to a majority.

    What may be more worrisome for the Liberals is how close the NDP were to them. Only 350 or 400 votes behind them.

  8. ottlib says:

    What most people read into by-elections tends to support their preconceived notions.

    At the end of the day the only thing that anybody can say with any authority is a by-election took place and when it was over Kathleen Wynne still lead a majority government in Ontario.

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