Musings —10.31.2016 09:56 AM—
Since Friday, a few readers – and others – have suggested that the FBI’s mid-campaign move in 2016 was just like the RCMP’s mid-campaign move in 2006. With the conservative option benefitting.
The FBI’s stunt won’t change the election’s outcome, just as the RCMP’s didn’t. But, just for the sake of argument, let’s ask ourselves: did the Mounties change history?
Um, no. And here’s the response I just gave a commenter:
This is one of the great myths of Canadian politics.
Ipsos and others showed that the CPC moved ahead of the LPC immediately after Jane Creba was gunned down on Yonge Street. It happened over the Christmas holidays, and it provided dramatic support for the Cons’ “law and order” message. That’s when the numbers moved, big time.
The Martin Liberals lost because (a) they spectacularly mismanaged the sponsorship affair (b) they had a million messages instead of just five (like Harper) and (c) they were running the shittiest campaign in Canadian history (“soldiers in the streets,” etc.).
The RCMP didn’t win the election for Harper. The Martin Liberals did that all on their own.