11.01.2016 01:25 PM

You want #USpoli polls? We got #USpoli polls

…courtesy of the ever-vigilant, never-sleeping Jeff Gauvin:

11/1, 7AM
■REU C+5
■ABC T+1
■SVM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■AP C+14
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■DC C+12
■FOX C+5
■QUI C+7
■BLO C+9
■CBS C+9

17 Comments

  1. Innocent III says:

    So what do you think, dear Magus? With numbers like these is there any reason for HRC to toss Huma Abedin under the bus?

  2. MississaugaPeter says:

    Every morning, I check the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections. I don’t see it listed. I am sure you would not like it.

    The daily 6:00 a.m. poll results reminds me of Nanos in being daily and giving pretty good specifics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

    Hillary is up 1%.

    It is the only poll that reveals the real split in the Hispanic vote out there (Mexican vs. non-Mexicans) that no one in the media appears knows or wants to acknowledge. The Hispanic vote is only 48%-33% in favour of Hillary. Florida swings Trump easily next Tuesday. I have a Mexican worker and he laughs at how the Hispanic vote is grouped. He says that folks from non-Mexico central America and from South America detest Mexicans.

    In Florida, there are more South American Hispanics than Mexican Hispanics. Helps Trump.
    In Florida, there are almost as many Central American Hispanics as Mexican Hispanics. Helps Trump.
    In Florida, Caribbean Hispanics (mostly Cubans) outnumber all other Hispanic groups combined. Not sure in the end who they will vote for but I do know that Rubio is Republican.

    • Warren says:

      I look forward to the day that MississaugaPeter returns to the political centre!

    • jay says:

      Isn’t that Donald Trump’s favourite poll?

      • MississaugaPeter says:

        Was one of them, along with the LA Times, but STRANGELY stopped being so once they started showing Hillary ahead.

        The best polls were the 8-10 online polls Trump would put together and tweet out after every debate. They all had him ahead, some by incredible landslides (85% vs. 15%). While Hillary has the ground game, Trump for appearance’s sake looks like he leads social media. For the past few months Trump has steadily had 3M more followers than Hillary. Although they may be made up or bought for just like the rest of his campaign.

  3. MississaugaPeter says:

    So does everyone else I know. I will die claiming I am left of Hillary even though I am against her (and not so obviously, against Trump). Too much of those Russian Wikileaks will do that to you.

    If Curran (haven’t seen him since OMD concert at The Phoenix many years ago) can make it next Thursday you can buy me a beer for my fearless Florida prediction. I dare not go alone because of the hipsters you tend to attract (still have not got their taste out of my mouth from a campaign four years ago). I would go alone if you tell me Pierre’s sister (I believe her name was Sheila) or Conan (red hair, Hot Nasties groupie) are going to be there.

  4. Maps Onburt says:

    I still think that Trump is wildly under polled and there will be a lot of polling companies out there saying “we didn’t see this…” come next Weds. Will he win, I dunno as he definitely doesn’t have the ground game that Hillary has but he does have motivated voters. My US friends tell me that NC is a sea of Trump signs right now but the pollsters are calling it clearly Clinton or a wash… They tell me, despite most of them being democrats, that Hillary is going down in NC. I have another friend who went to Cincinnati for the World Series games 1&2 and said he didn’t see ANY Clinton signs until he got into the inner city. Hillary was just campaigning in Cinncinati… she drew 2500 supporters. Trump was there two weeks ago and drew 15,000. Unless Hillary’s team is busy printing ballots, it’s going to be a rout. That said, I suspect she’ll take many of the Northern states like Vermont, NY and NH. I suspect it’ll be a nail biter. What a crazy system where one candidate could win dramatically the popular vote and yet still lose because the electoral college votes don’t line up with that (some states go winner take all).

    • Jim Keegan says:

      Re: your last sentence…….*ALL* States go winner take all, except for Nebraska and Maine, where it is possible to have splits. I think you might be confusing this with the primaries.

  5. I was dubious about this, but upon looking up PollyVote and checking out the credentials and track record, it seems that they are better forecasters than Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight. Still, I will remain a healthy skeptic until November 9 when I wake up and the whole nightmare is over for at least another four years.

    On another note, it looks like the FBI aren’t even pretending to be neutral.

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/fbi-clinton-marc-rich-investigation/index.html

  6. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Head and heart still say Hillary. Gut still screaming Trump…

  7. monkey says:

    How many of these were before the FBI october surprise? While I agree it probably won’t shift by much, until those pollsters report again, which they probably will, many of us are quite nervous. Perhaps being on the campaign, maybe their internal numbers paint a more rosy picture, at least a hope so. I also hope Clinton doesn’t just win, but wins big. I am afraid if its close, we will have more deadlock and even worse the GOP will choose another nutbar in 2020 who I think would win (12 years for one party in power is the most we’ve seen in the past 60 years) whereas if he loses badly at least she will win the senate and in the house GOP members might cooperate as well as the GOP will probably radically change so even if they do win in 2020, it will be someone we can live with.

  8. Matt says:

    CNN talking head was musing tonight that the Dems are pretty sure they will lose the actual election day vote count which is why they are pushing so hard to get their voters to the advanced polls. Think he said about 26 million have voted so far.

    Interesting point I didn’t know: Apparently in Wisconsin and a couple other States, those who cast their ballot in the advanced poll actually have the right to go in and change their vote up to and including election day.

    • MississaugaPeter says:

      Yah, Trump just tweeted that info this morning. Out of respect of the fine owner of this website I will not link to it, but will give the content:

      You can change your vote in six states. So, now that you see that Hillary was a big mistake, change your vote to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

      I guess Trump no longer thinks that there is election fraud or a conspiracy against him.

      If I was a conspiracist, this changing of vote thing would explain more than a few election results I did not like.

  9. Matt says:

    What I mean by lose the election day vote count is more votes will be cast for Trump than Clinton on the day of the election.

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