12.22.2016 06:33 PM

Five points about Trudeau

So. 

I’ve been reading some of the commentariat’s year-end stuff. Short version: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in trouble, blah blah blah. 

He isn’t. Five points:

• Trudeau has had the longest honeymoon of any Prime Minister in the history of polling. It is extraordinary, and it hasn’t ended. 

• Trudeau’s government has more support than both his principal opponents put together. After more than year, that too is extraordinary. 

• Trudeau – as seen in myriad polls and focus groups and such – is genuinely liked by Canadians, coast to coast. It isn’t Trudeaumania, but it also isn’t the sort of affection enjoyed by any other politician in the planet. Truly. 

• Trudeau has seen a bit of a dip in his party’s support, sure. But that’s more due to the high cost of electricity in Ontario, and the low cost of oil in Alberta. I don’t believe, not for a minute, that the “cash for access” and pipelines stuff have hurt him with real people. Newspaper editorial boards and people who never vote Liberal, maybe. But not real folks. 

• Trudeau, when contrasted with the fucking maniac who is about to become President of the United States, is going to continue to look good. He will be the anti-Trump, and he (and we) will benefit from that.

 

36 Comments

  1. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Cash for Access has never been skilfully dealt with. That makes it a ticking time bomb even though the sound is still faint.

  2. The Doctor says:

    Warren, those are all fair and valid points that you make. That said, before we start deeming JT PM-For-Life, I think it’s prudent to see what the two oppo parties do on the leadership front. JT has had a pretty easy ride in that regard, facing two interim lame ducks. If the CPC picks a fire-breather like Leitch, then JT is probably in the clear. But I think someone like Bernier could make things interesting. Next election is probably a gimme for JT in any event, because #1, Harper shat the bed on the Tory brand big-time, and #2, we do have a history in Canada of putting parties that we kick out of power in the penalty box for a couple of election cycles.

  3. Dan Calda says:

    Re the last point. Justin Trudeau may well become the most important politician in the world, depending on the outcome of the German elections next year.
    The sheer volume of fake accounts cropping up now…to attack Trudeau speaks volumes.

  4. monkey says:

    Didn’t Chretien maintain sky high approval ratings for pretty much his whole tenure? I don’t recall Chretien’s numbers ever falling into negative territory while PM although could be wrong. I agree the honeymoon has gone on longer than what is a normal honeymoon, but his numbers are dipping a bit, although hardly anything to get too panicked about. Probably in a year’s time will have a better read on whether Canadians are truly in love with Trudeau or his high numbers were more due to lack of opposition. Very few politicians remain wildly popular for long although provincially we have seen a few such as Brad Wall, Danny Williams, Frank McKenna, and Gary Doer. The interesting thing is except the first who is still premier, once each resigned their parties took a huge hit not too long after thus if Trudeau’s high numbers stay put the danger comes more when he decides to call it quits.

  5. Luke says:

    Also, if he were becoming unpopular this would be ideal timing, being so far from the next election. Lots of time for turning things around, getting policy in place, etc.

  6. bluegreenblogger says:

    Amongst other things, I have spent a fair bit of my career training sales people. There is one pre-condition for closing a deal, the prospective client must TRUST the person asking them for an order. It is a necessary, if not sufficient condition. That is what Trudeau enjoys right now. Trust. The pre-condition for support. We TRUST implicitly that he is NOT Harper, Not a Blue Meanie, Not a racist. The rest is just not so important after ten years of the baddies. There are a thousand things for him to do, and he is doing them willy nilly, but the effort is there. Good enough for now, keep it up, there is much damage to undo. We TRUST you to do the right things.

    • Cath says:

      Many also trusted him to keep his word. Ask any NDPer who bolted from their leader how much they trust Justin now.

      The longer he digs-in on the cash-for-access the more he looks like Wynne and THAT = mistrust on a HUGE scale.

      The honeymoon will be over when the people say it’s over. No media, pundit or poll will change that either IMO.

      Voters clue in pretty quickly.

      • redraven says:

        Trudeau following Harper was like Obama following Bush. How could anyone not look good by comparison.
        THE biggest problem facing our country is not values or ideology or whatever the wingnuts who run for office say it is…. it’s tens of thousands of unemployed males under the age of thirty and there is no way an analog nineteenth century system of government can address that. There is shit coming and a large fan and don’t pretend you didn’t see it coming when it hits. Oh, and those kids won’t give a damn how popular some leader is or his proxies or his minions. They will wreak shit.

        • MississaugaPeter says:

          Most of the problem is diverted. In another age it would have been a societal problem (and it may still be), but folks are having a lot fewer children now than yesteryear, so they can and will allow these grownups to live at home indefinitely. It is actually becoming very acceptable and the stigma is quickly declining.

      • bluegreenblogger says:

        I know plenty of dippers who do NOT spend all day howling ‘he lied’ every time they have no excuse to say so. There are plenty of rational people who often vote NDP. Lots more people get turned off by the ones shouting ‘he LIES’. And no, people do not ‘clue in’ pretty fast to non-issues 3 years away from an election. They drift along, reserving judgement. Which is probably why so many partisans holler ‘he LIED’, because they think hyperbole will cut through indifference, and kill the trust.

  7. Kevin (the Dutch one) says:

    I think you’re right on all counts. A couple of observations:

    He IS genuinely liked by Canadians. On top of having assets other politicians would sell their soul for: looks, hair, personality, spontaneity (good teeth, shiny coat, good with children…), we watched him grow up. He’s everyone’s son. So we want to see him do well and we root for him even when he gets on our nerves. The familiarity probably contributes to the trust that bgb mentions.

    Cash for access. Oh sigh. I don’t think I’m an outlier, and when I hear all the uproar about that I just think “what a bunch of hypocrites”. Every politician, every party does that. The only difference is that when “we” do it we call it getting out and meeting Canadians, when they do it we call it cash for access. “We have to stop those corrupt Liberals and their corrupt rent-a-minister scheme. Oh, just make that out to the Kellie Leitch campaign – she’s just over there by the way. Go and say hi. And please try the smoked salmon”. It’s getting tiresome.

    • Cath says:

      The narrative has just begun on CFA on all sides including the media (Bob Fife) which broke this and continues to dig. Who was it that said “Scandals, embarrassments and improprieties are best served up by reporters, not consultants in back rooms.”

      Justin’s fine for the time being but cracks are starting to show.

      2017 will be pivotal for him.

      • Kevin (the Dutch one) says:

        You’re probably right about pivotal, but you may be surprised. I ask myself why a team with so much political savvy would be digging in and taking all the abuse instead of bending and weaving the usual way. Leads me to think something surprising is in the works (and has been since before Bob Fife broke anything).

  8. billg says:

    The fly in the Trudeau ointment will be something many on the Left are not considering, what if Trump is successful?
    What if, as we’ve seen reported this week, company’s relocate to the US for a more business friendly attitude from governments.
    Leaders, as they say, are defined by that moment in time when events dictate what they do.
    By the time the next Federal Canadian election comes around our Prime Minister will have plenty of time to either prove the detractors wrong, or, his supporters right.
    Buckle up, this is going to be interesting.

    • Cath says:

      Very good point.

    • Ron says:

      If companies do relocate to the U.S., they will bring in experts on robotics. Not guys and gals putting round pegs into round holes.

      Trump thinks he can solve the unsolvable. He can’t, and when his base finally twigs to this it could get very ugly indeed. Bigly.

  9. Bill Templeman says:

    Sorry Warren, I know your opinion on the Libs’ handling of the election reform file, but for Jane & Joe Frontporch, all they remember is Trudeau’s campaign boast “This (2015) election will be the last FPTP election”. I get all the conditions and rationales as to why he shouldn’t / can’t change the voting system before 2019, and I get the fact that this boast was perhaps light-weight campaign spin. (btw, I voted for JT and Maryam Monsef and, so far, would do so again). But….Jane & Joe are not perhaps as involved in politics and the media as you or those of us who cruised your fine site here. And for J & J, they just might be whispering the front porch equivalent of “Trudeau is fucking us around and pretending we don’t remember” to their neighbours as they sip their double-doubles. J & J remember….

  10. David says:

    Another positive for Trudeau right now is that he is NOT TRUMP. So many Canadians are feeling thankful we have him instead of an odious figure like Trump!

  11. cynical says:

    Not only is he not Trump, he is not Harper. Our memories are not that short, and that is good enough for now.
    We could see at the time he was elected that there were WAY too many promises to keep, with conflicting interest groups in play.
    He’s got a way to go before he’s no longer electable, and if the opposition continues to fumble (with some exceptions) he can get away with whatever he wants.
    Fine by me.
    And if Mike Harris lines up behind O’Leary, that’s the kiss of death in Ontario.

  12. redraven says:

    Here’s your Christmas gift Warren Kinsella. Use it well.

    I give you the best name evah for Kevin O’leary after today’s ridiculous pr stunt.

    are you ready? here it comes 🙂

    Kevin O’leary aka COUNT SPATULA.

    gotta be a song there Kinsella. I’d do it myself but I have weightier matters to deal with. It’s all yours.

    God it’s hard to be humble when you’re this good with woids:)

  13. redraven says:

    more on COUNT SPATULA. How can Kevin O’leary run for office or rise in the house of commons for question period if he has to sleep in his coffin during the daytime? hehehehe I can’t help myself. I think COUNT SPATULA is just so fucking funny.

    • Kevin (the Dutch one) says:

      Ha! That is funny. And when he delivered that nonsense he was totally deadpan. I think the guy’s finally flipped. But if he keeps up with the cheesy stunts the voters’ll take care of him in short order. Then he’ll be scrambling.

  14. John Lawson says:

    I attended the Calgary Chamber breakfast this past Wednesday with PMJT as the guest of honour. They sold out the room in 2 days . 1700 people. The room was warm towards him. He got a standing “O”. His speaking is much improved. In short — they really liked him. In Calgary. He is not going to lose in 2019. He is immensely popular.

    • The Doctor says:

      Yeah, everybody in Calgary loves him. If an election were held today, the Liberals would win every seat in Alberta.

    • lance m says:

      Being polite to someone and liking them are two very different things. Respecting the office he holds and respecting the man that holds it are two very different things. One thing that is well know about westerners is that they are polite.

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