02.25.2017 06:04 PM

It’s Forum. But. 

It’s Forum. That’s the first thing. 

Election is far away, that’s another. Wynne’s been counted out before, plenty of times. Seat projections are voodoo science. Media polls are worth what you pay for them – nothing. 

And, it’s Forum. 

But:

Kathleen Wynne and Ontario’s Liberals could be on the verge of electoral disaster in 2018, according to a new poll.

The Forum Research survey, provided exclusively to the Toronto Sun, shows that if an election were held today, the Patrick Brown-led Progressive Conservatives would be poised to win a “super-majority” with 84 of 122 seats in Ontario’s newly expanded legislature. Andrea Horwath and the New Democrats would form the Official Opposition with 27 seats.

The Wynne-Liberals would be the rump of the house, relegated to third-party status with 11 seats.

The source notwithstanding, this one is consistent with many other polls, over a long period of time. It may be exaggerated, but it’s pretty consistent with what others have concluded. 

And: it reflects what all of us are hearing, anecdotally, over and over. That’s been happening a lot since Thursday of this week, when Brown and Co. voted against Islamophobia in the Legislature. Unanimously. Without any of the ugliness seen in their federal Conservative Party. 

If all of these polls are right, we Ontario Liberals are looking at what some are calling “saving the furniture,” and not much else. Worse: we are down to a decade, maybe more, in the wilderness. 

And, if so – a big if – it means some big, big changes are in order. 

13 Comments

  1. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    It’s Kathleen Wynne’s job now to feel it out. She needs to know whether the elected political class, as well as ordinary party members, still have the fire to go to the wall for her. If I was an Ontario Liberal, my own answer would be unreservedly Yes. However, if consultations reveal that the answer is a broad-based No, she will know what she must do.

  2. Robert Viera says:

    Brown’s justice critic, Randy Hillier, did not vote for Thursday’s Islamophobia motion. He did retweet an article titled “Here’s why I fear Islam, Prime Minister” that day.

    Other PC MPPs not present for the vote include Toby Barrett, who retweeted an article about 25% of Canadians supporting a “Trump-style” ban on Syrian refugees earlier in the week, deputy leader Steve Clark, and Michael Harris.

  3. Cath says:

    She should have stepped down when she had the chance for the sake of her party. Too late now. It’s all about her now.

    Then again, you’ve said so many times that even 10 years in gov’t is too long. So……perhaps it’s just time.

    If the NDP start to surge that too will be of benefit to Brown. If the public sector unions decide they’ve had enough of Wynne and the Liberals, I can’t see them flocking to Brown. NDP? Maybe.

  4. Mario says:

    It is going to be hard to overcome the constant reminder that comes with every Hydro bill.

    Hydro is the one thing the Wynne can’t out run or hide.

  5. gord gemmell says:

    Patrick Brown appears to have become a new person.Liberals should check out ” the old Patrick Brown”
    as he appeared on the now defunct “Michael Coren show.”There,he was far right,close to being a Tea-party
    member.The question is which is the real Patrick Brown ?

  6. Bill Templeman says:

    The Ontario PC’s still have to deal with the powerfully negative memes that have clung to the Tory brand like tenacious barnacles since the Harris Regime: “scary”, “zealots”, “ideologues”, “cut-backs”, etc. Of course the Wynne Liberals have picked up a few negatives as well, “corrupt’, “dishonest”, “wasteful”, etc. Then there is the NDP and their unpopular leader, who seem to be sleep-walking towards the next election, more of less MIA in terms of key messages. Hard to call, polls notwithstanding.

    • Mario says:

      The Harris Boogeyman is getting old and its been a Liberal government for the past 15 years.

      Harris is used to scare public service unions into voting Liberal.

  7. Gyor says:

    According to polls Horwath is more popular then the other two leaders.

  8. Jean says:

    I don’t intend to change the topic from Ontario politics, but I just realized that someone has to point out, loud and clear, that all the big provinces seem to have embraced Hydro power too adoringly, and it looks to be a fickle critter. The governments of Manitoba, B.C., maybe Quebec and definitely Ontario, went into debt over Hydro power expansion. Now we are finding the demand may be at a plateau. B.C. is still willing to sacrifice part of the Peace River valley for the site C dam, at high cost but questionable need. Is it time to say: HYDRO is a rat fink?

    • Mark says:

      Ontario only get about a quarter to a third of its power from actually hydroelectricity. More than half comes from nuclear, about 10% from gas, and the remaining 10% from solar, wind, etc. Hydro, IMO, has been a pretty good investment. Wynne troubles with regard to “Hydro rates” (i.e. electricity rates) have to do with how the government has managed and subsidized the expansion of renewables.

  9. bluegreenblogger says:

    I bet Horwath will do well in an election. Campaign will turn a spotlight on her she seldom gets, and she is pretty experienced by now.

  10. P. Brenn says:

    time for change …simple as that …wynne should be congratulated (with Hudaks help) for extending the winning streak for libs…I do not tihnk they will bew down as far as poll calls but there are many who are due for change – Chiarelli, Sandals , Matthews , ..you just get stale ..

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