04.26.2017 12:30 PM

“Oral questions. The Honourable Mad Max.”

If true, this thing is over, no? 


6 Comments

  1. whyshouldIsellyourwheat says:

    I still think Scheer or O’Toole is going to win, whichever finishes ahead of the other on the first ballot.

    Scheer’s votes plus O’Toole’s votes > Bernier’s vote.

  2. Robert Frindt says:

    This has much more political significance.

    https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=HCG:TOR

    Similar to the collapse of New Century Financial in the Spring of 2007. New Century was the first big casualty of the USA housing bust.

    Home Capital specialized in mortgages for people that the big banks would not lend to.

    Interesting that the first collapse in Canada occurs while house prices are still going up.

    We’ll see if Baby Doc can do any better than Bush did in their financial crisis.

  3. Miles Lunn says:

    I think you will see more no hopers drop out and throw their support elsewhere so it ain’t over yet, but Bernier is certainly the frontrunner.

  4. Gord says:

    Scheer and O’Toole have a lot of caucus support. It remains to be seen whether that translates into membership votes (see Layton, Jack v. Blaikie, Bill).

  5. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Scheer or O’Toole don’t strike me as being able to even come close to Harper’s fortunes in Quebec. IMHO, if they want to have a realistic shot at Trudeau, they have no choice but to select Bernier.

    • Miles Lunn says:

      I think the problem with Bernier is he would hurt them elsewhere. He would likely lead to another shut out in Atlantic Canada which has a strong Red Tory tradition not libertarianism. Ontario is a wildcard, but considering how badly Hudak did, I think Bernier would do more harm than good whereas O’Toole would probably gain back a lot of the marginal seats as he is from the outskirts of the GTA. BC is as always a wildcard although I think Bernier’s chances will be much better if the NDP win provincially on May 9th than if the BC Liberals get back in. Generally the province swings rightward in its federal voting patterns when they have an NDP provincial government usually due to the backlash of them going too much to the left. During the 90s that was a big reason the Reform Party did so well in BC. The Prairies are largely Tory already asides from a few urban ridings. I think Chong followed by Raitt are their best hopes. Raitt would probably do poorly in Quebec, but she would do better than Bernier overall due to a much better showing in Atlantic Canada and Ontario.

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