, 10.26.2017 10:54 AM

Is Mr. Selfie in trouble? Is the dud a stud? Is Jagmeet dead meat?

Let us peer into the oracle that is Abacus (who, full disclosure, Daisy uses all the time, and proudly so).  It contains all sorts of interesting factoids and fun.  A chart, for your perusal:

It astounds and astonishes me that Blandy Scheer is this competitive – but if Abacus says he is, then he is.  It is less surprising, however, that Justin Trudeau – only now emerging from three months of myriad Morneau-messes – is slightly less popular.  And it is decidedly puzzling that Jagmeet Singh has yet to register on the public consciousness, because the new-New Democrat boss is a Trudeauesque charismatic hipster.

Anyway.  Full poll is here.  And comments are open.

 

13 Comments

  1. Kyle says:

    Isn’t the last thing that there is no “congenial truth” about Jagmeet Singh as familiarity is so low? http://angusreid.org/new-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh/

    So the question is, what does that truth become? Does him not registering in a a month or two of polls come to define him?

  2. Dennis Prouse says:

    I think it is a lot to expect of Jagmeet Singh to break through this early. He leads the third party, doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons, and was previously unknown to Canadians as a relatively low profile provincial opposition MPP. It may well take until an election campaign, when the playing field starts to level a bit in terms of media coverage, that he starts to resonate more. After all, Jack Layton’s breakthrough really didn’t start to take hold until the 2011 campaign was well underway…

  3. Luke says:

    So far, my federal voting decisions have been between NDP and Liberal. I think that because Trudeau and Jagmeet have the same appeal, Jagmeet with more benefit of the doubt at this point, a vaguely tolerable Scheer could manage a Conservative minority win as voters like me flip flop between Lib and NDP. Just centre left vote splitting of the usual kind. Election is forever away though so nothing matters tangibly yet.

  4. Matt says:

    Look back at the trends in polling. The CPC always poll better in the Fall and Winter.

    Could simply be that…….

    But as a CPC voter I hope it’s more people are finally beginning to see the real Justin Trudeau and they don’t like him.

    As for Singh, he’s had the job less than a month, but personally I think not being in the HOC is really going to hurt him. He needs the clips and soundbites on the evening news going head to head against Trudeau in Question Period.

    Also, the third quarter fundraising numbers come out next week. Should be interesting.

    • Charlie says:

      “As for Singh, he’s had the job less than a month, but personally I think not being in the HOC is really going to hurt him. He needs the clips and soundbites on the evening news going head to head against Trudeau in Question Period.”

      I think the one lesson to pull away from Tom Mulcair its that the above statement does not hold true.

      Justin Trudeau was miserable in the House when Harper was PM, but Mulcair was a machine. When it came to the campaign trail though, Mulcair was a fish out of water. None of his soundbites helped him; and he had many, many good ones.

      For Singh, he does need to ensure that he remains a part of the national discussion despite not holding a seat in the House for the next two years. That is going to be tough, but the cost of spending more time in Ottawa than in grassroots ridings across Canada is far too great for Jagmeet to be worried about not holding a seat in Parliament.

      Trudeau is terrible in the House and he knows he’ll never win there. Thats why he spends significant amounts of time away from the chamber. No sense in wasting you’re breath and screaming during QP when Canadians have completely tuned that charade out.

      (It’s been a charade for a long time now; all parties are guilty of making it so).

      Point being, Trudeau is going to be a very tough person to campaign against in 2019 just because he does retail politics so, so well. Scheer and Singh (sound like a law firm on a funny sitcom about two ideologically different law partners) would be wise to appoint trusted and component House leaders, but focus their personal energy getting through to Canadians directly.

      • Matt says:

        Some valid points there, BUT remember that for nearly the first half of the 2015 campaign the Libs, CPC and NDP were locked in a three way race with only 3 or 4 points seperating first and third.

        Then came Mulcair’s response to the issue of removing the niqab for citizenship ceremonies.

        That got the NDP dropping in Quebec, and then it spread across Canada as the anti Harper vote started to rally behind Trudeau.

      • Luke says:

        I think this is a clever analysis.

        I don’t think it will be hard fir Singh to gain the attention of the media outside of question period, though. He is fascinating and produces headlines at the drop of a hat (or turban?). I think he is a major problem for the Liberals and unless one or the other decisively sways voters, Scheer and his unimaginative cardboard box party can enjoy a split vote.

  5. BlueGritr says:

    Singh’s quandry: when to run, and where? Until he gets into the House, he’ll remain an afterthought, and the New Democrats will continue to poll around 15% nationally.

  6. Charlie says:

    Scheer is not competitive. Lets not credit someone with something their undeserving of.

    There variety of factors that resulted in the bump for the tightening between the LPC and CPC, but Scheer’s magnetic personality is not even on the top 1000 list.

    All in all, if the Liberals are at a 39 from their election night 40, and the Conservatives are at a 35 from their election night 32; I’d say its not a bad place for either parties to be with two years to an election.

    On the other hand, the NDP is at a 15 from their election night 20, which is a pretty obvious indicator that the quasi interim leadership of Mulcair has done nothing positive for the New Democrats overall.

    Honestly can’t wait for history to look back at his tenure in federal politics as a tragedy of promise killed by hubris.

  7. Simon says:

    Well, WK, here is a reason that Scheer is competitive (Not the men should man-up part, but the suggestion that 75% of men are criminals, when most male crime is the result of a very small % of the same men, say <5%, like Weinstein himself) :

    http://warrenkinsella.com/2017/10/i-dont-want-to-be-yet-another-man-writing-metoo-affects-me/

    Here's another reason (again not the man himself, or even the particular issue, but the movement that seems to have formed up behind him, which includes free speech): https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson

    And some more background: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/trump-republican-unity/544077/

    This is not to say that the economy will not trump everything, or that a social conservative eruption will split Scheer's support, just that there is a global pushback against elite-directed "openness" (for lack of a better word). There is a cross-partistan movement growing for "borders": that includes borders around the person that protect free speech, borders around nations that protect what is good about them, and ultimately borders that indicate what is good and bad, patriotic or unpatriotic behaviour (such as the propriety of paying a terrorist $10 million) for societies as a whole.

    Obviously, this will be filtered through the Canadian reality, and our need to be plugged into the world. But if Scheer can get the tone and balance right, he can capture not only the right, but those traditional small 'l' liberals (true liberals) who worry when red flags like the Islamophobia bill and the trans pronoun bill are introduced.

  8. Miles Lunn says:

    I am not totally surprised, while 35% may some high, lets remember 30% of Canadians would vote for a monkey running under the Conservative banner so you don’t have to be that strong a Conservative leader to get 35% of the popular vote. Where Scheer’s real challenge is if he comes across as too scary, progressive voters may coalesce around the Liberals to keep him out. Also lets remember Stanfield in 1974 got 35% and remained in opposition. In addition in the case of Ontario, I think the 42% has a lot to do with the unpopularity of the Wynne government so if Wynne gets turfed next June, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals rebound there a bit as Ontario often tends to vote opposites. Likewise in BC, I suspect once the NDP government becomes less popular, both them and the Greens who propped them up will fall so that could help the Liberals depending on where those voters go as in BC it’s not automatic they will go to the Liberals.

    • billg says:

      Too scary as in promise a bunch of things he knows he can never fulfil just to win an election?
      Just once I’d like THAT to be considered scary.
      And, just cuz its Friday, 60% of Canadians would vote for a monkey running under anything but the Conservative banner, which makes me wonder how you guys even lose elections.

  9. Lyndon Dunkley says:

    I don’t think the Liberals have anything to worry about. Once the public understands the Conservatives literally hired Joseph Goebbels’ grandson as their campaign manager and anyone making over $35,000 a year is no longer in the middle class they were elected to help, Liberal support will rise above 50%.

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