04.10.2018 10:01 AM

Ugly graphic

…but a beautiful trend line, if you are Mr. Ford or Ms. Horwath.

Perfect split on the Left.  For the only party on the Right, that’s about as good as it gets.


  1. Pedant says:

    The most significant figure here is of course the rise in the NDP. If the NDP manages to outpoll the Liberals, the seat count will be devastating for the Libs since their vote is far less efficient than the NDP’s. The Liberals have many wasted votes in the Toronto and Ottawa city centres.

    Even if the Liberals outpoll the NDP by a few percentage points, the NDP will still probably win more seats and become Official Opposition.

  2. doconnor says:

    Barely in majority territory is a pretty risky place for the Conservatives to be right now when it is far from clear that the intensity of a campaign will help them or hurt them.

    • Warren says:

      There is a perfect split on the Left. In what way is that not perfect for them?

      • Chris says:

        It may be just the start for the NDP. Remember the orange tsunami under Jack Layton?

        • Patrick says:

          Think there’s any chance the center, and the left will collapse into a consensus candidate?

        • Matt says:

          People were saying the same about the Ontario NDP in 2014.

          They then ran a disaster of a campaign where, despite voting to bring the government down and trigger the election, they looked and sounded completely unprepared to fight election.

        • Fred from BC says:

          The “orange tsunami” was a direct result of the collapse of the Bloc vote in Quebec…in other words, a protest vote. The NDP immediately began to enthusiastically embrace the delusion that it was actually their own popularity in Quebec that had translated into a record number of seats, but no one was fooled.

          • doconnor says:

            The orange crush was triggered by the NDP rise in popularity in Quebec, but they had growth across the country. Even without the Quebec seats, the NDP still had a record number of seats in that election.

            If the NDP becomes the not-Conserative party (simply by being ahead of the Liberals) it could have massive success in Ontario.

          • Gord says:

            People forget the NDP actually did worse, seat-wise, in the ROC in 2011 than in the previous high-water mark of 1988. In 1988 they won 43 seats, all in the ROC (primarily Western Canada). In 2011 they won 44 seats in the ROC. But when you consider the House was considerably larger in 2011, in percentage terms they actually won fewer seats in the ROC in 2011 (44/233 or 18.9%) than they did in 1988 (43/207 or 20.8%).

      • Adam says:

        Is that all the NDP is to you? An inconvenient splitter of the left, nothing more? No wonder the Liberals are so widely hated.

  3. Brendan says:

    With Wynne’s apparent failure to make any hay with the budget, I believe that sooner rather than later we are going to see the Star and other progressive media outlets completely throw the premier and her party under the bus and begin to seriously advocate for an NDP government as Horwath clearly has the most room to grow from this point forward.
    I can already envision the Star’s “Notice of Divorce” editorial in my head, first briefly acknowledging the accomplishments achieved under Wynne’s leadership, but then going on to rip the premier and her government a new one in a fashion that will leave Star readers wondering if they accidentally picked up the Sun at the newsstand this morning!

    • Adam says:

      I highly doubt it. It took the 2011 “Orange Crush” for the Star to very grudgingly endorse the NDP (but still advocate “strategic” voting) for the first time in about thirty years against Ignatieff’s right-of-centre Liberals. There is no way the Star is going to give any serious consideration or coverage to anyone but the Liberals and PCs.

      Meanwhile, the Postmedia/Sun chain will inevitably back the PCs, while the G&M will probably fence-sit until they tepidly endorse the PCs but call for Doug Ford to step down.

  4. Dork in East York says:

    If the NDP and Liberals flip sides, and the Anyone-but-Ford vote goes to the NDP, the Liberals could have as few as a dozen seats come summer.

    Ford is on his way to a massive 90+ seat majority.

  5. Gyor says:

    If we had proportional representation this wouldn’t be an issue, we’d be looking at an NDP Minority government instead of a possible Tory government from these numbers.

    • billg says:

      I think most sane people would look at the circus that is the proportional gov’t in BC right now and say “no thanks”.

  6. Ronald O'Dowd says:


    More progressives than conservatives. Let’s see. Who can they vote for to stop Ford? To ask the question, is to answer it…

  7. p bre says:

    liberals are fine ..just ask – Hoskins, matthews, and others who quietly went into the night .

  8. Alicia says:

    I wonder, if there is no clear majority PC vote would the Libs and NDP attempt to form a coalition government to stop Ford. I hope so.

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