, 05.24.2018 05:29 PM

Holy moly, Ontari-oly!


These are apparently unverified Ekos results making the rounds.

Can you say Premier Horwath?

Zero OLP seats! Isn’t the Wizard the Greatest political strategist who ever lived?

Anyone agree with me on Andrew Lawton yet?

Comments are open!


  1. usenet says:

    Not sure what I am supposed to agree with on Lawton, but….

    I have voted PC and Liberal in the past, will not vote NDP. This election I want to see the liberals gone, but will not vote PC with him as the candidate in my riding. Plan is to vote green.

    So, is Ford’s error in not replacing Lawton his fatal flaw?

  2. Matt says:

    There is of course the possibility people are simply lying to the pollsters.

    Could these numbers actually hurt the NDP?

    I think it was Abacus a day or two ago that said something like 45% of NDP support is from people who are only voting Dipper to prevent the OPC or Liberals from winning.

    They may look at this and think the NDP has it in the bag so they don’t need to actually go and vote.

  3. Matt says:

    Sample size is only 507 people with a big 4.5% MOE.

    • Matt says:

      Also Graves on his personal twitter said he was seeing a dramatic change in his polling but wasn’t going to release until he gave it another night in the field, (which would be tonight and release tomorrow) to verify the results.

      So who released this now? Who paid for it? Is this an NDP paid for poll like the one last federal election that showed Trudeau losing his home riding?

      • Miles Lunn says:

        Also Advanced Symbolics was on the agenda and they said their AI tracking had 37.2% PC to 36.5% NDP but in seats it was 73 seats PC to 50 seats NDP and 1 seat NDP. Likewise Quito Maggi at Mainstreet tweeted NDP pulled ahead, but much less dramatic than Ekos and their riding polls have 67 PC, 47 NDP, 7 Liberal, 1 Green and 2 toss-ups. We will have to see how things unfold over the next few days but NDP is on the move and looks good to win, but still not a sure thing while PCs odds of winning are dropping but still not totally out of yet.

      • p bre says:

        ..no poll protocols ? weird ..still other polls pointing same way …very much a message being sent

  4. Miles Lunn says:

    I doubt it will be that big a lead for NDP, but agree Premier Horwath is the most likely outcome. Waiting for a few more polls to confirm and not confirm but it looks like PCs made a big mistake in choosing Doug Ford. Liberals off course were toast for over two years it was simply who would replace them. Off course this might be a rogue poll, but I would say if by next Monday all polls show NDP leading, then we can say hello to premier Horwath.

    • Mike Douglas says:

      Can anybody say Venezuela? What a freaking nightmare!

    • Matt says:

      Mainstreet is in the field everyday and as of a couple hours ago is still predicting a OPC majority

      67 seats for the OPC, 47 NDP, 7 Liberal, 1 Green and two that are currently tied, presumably between the OPC and NDP but Quito didn’t say.

  5. the salamander horde says:

    .. well, Ford may yet explode.. this 407 scandal aint exactly disappearing.. but hey, its only about 26 ridings.. and Harper rode out some 240 .. they called it ‘hijinks’ in Mainstream Media.. We had ‘vote moving’, in Scarborough & other Ontario ridings, mysterious scrutineers who spoke Sri Lankan & were never identified, and in other provinces, similar scamming, plus live and robo calling across the entire country, fake messages re voting locations, other ‘black ops’ we really don’t even know about, a guy with a red goatee operating out of Vaughn, about 30 k as the crow flies from Guelph and Michael Sona.. and the Guelph guy, campaign manager who disappeared himself to Kuwait permanently.. skullduggery & funding scams al la Del Mastro, all under & including In/Out funding via Harper.. ‘They call it democracy’ (Bruce Cockburn)

  6. Charlie says:

    I think I remember posting a comment on here re: a possible rebirth of the NDP in provincial legislatures.

    This one could be huge.

    I originally expected a best-case-scenerio for the Dippers to be Official Opposition in Ontario, but forming government can definitely help chart a new path forward.

    Side note: Note sure what the main cause of drag for PCs is; could be scandal after scandal after scandal (nominations are making national news now), or could be that traditional Liberals can’t stomach the idea of a ROFO Premier and would gladly vote for Horwath.

    Either way, its not looking great for the PCs.

  7. Stephen Bent says:

    Depressing. God help us.

  8. David_M says:

    I don’t know your position on Mr. Lawton
    he’s the hand picked PC candidate in my riding
    I feel more comfortable with Peggy Sattler

  9. Gyor says:

    If Andrea Horwath has a great debate Sunday, its possible she could go higher. It all hinges on Sunday.

    • Matt says:

      No, it all hinges on those who say they support the NDP actually showing up to vote June 7th.

      • Ned Ludd says:

        I thought the Ontario NDP was permanently tainted from the Rae days, but I suppose many of the electorate who were so vehemently anti NDP are no longer with us. Of course we have a much longer history of NDP govt’s out on the Left coast, but it’s been my experience that no one gets out the vote like the NDP…..socialist volunteers always seem to go the extra mile if they see there is any chance to stick it to the corporate robber barons. As well, they can always depend on cadres of volunteers from other provinces and the Federal wing, which other parties don’t seem to be able to attract. I just don’t see how an NDP gov’t is going to be able to get Ontario out of the financial hole it finds itself in. Unless Ms. Howath shows the financial restraint of a Tommy Douglas, methinks they are going to go from the frying pan into the fire.

        • Ian says:

          A sizeable percentage of the electorate doesn’t really remember Harris, let alone Rae.

          All three parties have been energetically convincing me there are good reasons not to vote for them, so that is what I will probably do.

        • Nicole says:

          Boomers are obsessed with Bob Rae but those 45 and under were not even old enough to vote for him in 1990 and instead lived through the Harris slash and burn years. Great “business” moves like selling Ontario Hydro and the 407 still haunt us today. Had the PC chosen Christine Elliott or Caroline Mulroney then perhaps they could make their party more appealing to the people who aren’t PC diehards. Instead the epitome of inexperienced male mediocrity was chosen and he does not inspire any confidence because the PCs have no plan. There are complex problems that need to be resolved and spouting platitudes isn’t enough.

          • Fred from BC says:

            “Great “business” moves like selling Ontario Hydro ”

            I thought Harris only split the corporation into different parts, and it was the Liberals who actually sold it. No?

          • doconnor says:

            They tried to sell Ontario Hydro, but a labour group challenged it and the court rules the law splitting Hydro didn’t allow them to sell it, partly because they said in the Legislature that it wouldn’t. By the time that was sorted out Enron had hit exposing the terrible effects of privatization.

  10. Luke says:

    Of course it could change, but I think this is how it will end up. It seems intuitive and natural.

  11. Dork in East York says:

    Shame on stubborn Wynne. A lot of great people are going down with the ship… Ted McMeekin, Han Dong, etc. A leadership change late last year could have completely changed the course.

    • David_M says:

      that was never going to happen

    • Ron says:

      You are so right. The writing has been on the wall for a long time. For whatever reason(s) the electorate can’t stand Wynne. She put herself above party. The liberal party is going to be just about wiped off the map.

  12. Ronald O'Dowd says:


    As the first one to the NDP party, I’ll tell you now how I feel: not like it’s already in the bag. The funding hole will hurt at least on the margins. My gut is suddenly feeling cautious about a projected Horwath win. Maybe I’m just a nervous Nellie, who knows.

  13. Steve T says:

    So, as a non-Ontarian, I want to get this straight.

    Voters are tired of Wynne’s (and the Liberals’) mismanagement of the province, including: raising taxes when they promised not to; failing to lower taxes they promised to lower; promises to balance the budget and instead running a deficit; funnelling money to unions to ensure their support; bloated public spending; and various other government largesse.

    So the solution is to vote NDP???

    • Miles Lunn says:

      I think its more people dislike Wynne and Ford. We still have 2 weeks left so will be interesting to see where things go. Frank Graves at Ekos thinks PCs don’t stand a chance while Quito Maggi at Mainstreet still thinks they would win one today. I think things are volatile so probably won’t settle down until next week.

    • doconnor says:

      The anger at Wynne is not really about these things, but various scandals over the years, mostly from the McGintey era. I admit it doesn’t make a lot of sense.

      Another difference the NDP promises to raise taxes and increase spending.

    • Fred from BC says:

      As a BCer, I know exactly what you mean. I remember two NDP governments here, and shudder to think of what they might do to a province the size of Ontario especially in their current economic condition).

  14. Ronald O'Dowd says:


    Off topic but by the by, who goes out there and says I can do better???

    Doesn’t that just invite an automatic retort of then, why didn’t you?

  15. Art says:

    What complete bunk, Mike. Stop with the ‘red scare’ nonsense. Its not 1953. Every time the NDP is up in the polls all the ‘red scare’ nonsense comes out. It’s almost comical.

  16. Matt says:

    Hearing Forum is about to release claiming a near 20 point NDP lead.

    People must be fucking with the pollsters.

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Forum’s poll is massive but one thing I find weird is the raw numbers are 342 PC, 307 NDP, and 143 Liberal, but when re-weighted it is 47% NDP, 33% PC, and 14% Liberal. Most pollsters re-weight but this seems massive in reweighting thus why I think the NDP is ahead, but not by this amount. Mainstreet however insists they still show PCs in the lead. You have to subscribe to get their numbers so with pollsters all over the place who knows. We will probably have a better idea next week. At this point I think NDP government is most likely outcome, but unlike the Liberals, the PCs aren’t totally out of it, but with Liberal vote collapsing and most going NDP things are not looking good. Also Mainstreet hinted due to voter efficiency NDP could win the popular vote but PCs more seats.

    • Fred from BC says:

      Could be (they did with Trump).

      Is it true that Horwath is pretty much ‘owned’ by the unions? That would be really bad for the economy, if true…

  17. Ronald O'Dowd says:


    I’m sure The Wizard did not agree to a money back guarantee.

  18. David Ray says:

    Attention shoppers. Sometimes a thug is just a thug.

  19. Liam Young says:

    Greens too are percolating, but not enough to warrant any seats. It may be BC all over again?

    Horvath will have to prepare herself for this kind of nonsense:

  20. Gyor says:

    Forums new numbers are even more shocking, 47% NDP, 33% Tories, and 14% Liberals.

  21. dean sherratt says:

    This poll is apparently fake news…The actual EKOS poll released today has the PCs and NDP neck and neck…the NDP is NOT up by 10% according to EKOS. Forum may be a bit of an outlier.

    • Matt says:

      Not technically fake news as that was the result after a one night sample of 507 people.

      But Graves in now claiming they “never intended” to have it released and yet it somehow got out.

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