12.21.2018 09:34 AM

Abacus on Trudeau trouble

New Abacus. Is Justin Trudeau in trouble? His majority is.


  1. Ian says:

    Sort of staggering that this is happening with the NDP essentially leaderless. If they were to select someone more effective, perhaps Inanimate Carbon Rod, the Liberals might well be in freefall, particularly in the West.

    • Slater says:

      If Singh loses the Burnaby South by election, I wouldn’t be surprised if the party “Patrick Brown’s” him and selects a new leader to fight the 2019 election.

  2. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    I don’t know how to quantify it but to me it feels like some element of racism is at work against Singh.

    • Fred from BC says:

      You mean because he couldn’t bring himself to condemn the Air India bomber when Terry Milewski interviewed him? Or maybe because he couldn’t figure out what his stance on pipelines should be? Or was it because he didn’t know the official NDP position on gun control?

      He’s been underwhelming right from the start. No ‘racism’ necessary.

      • Doug Brown says:

        The NDP were looking for their Trudeau. What they got was a Trudeau minus Gerald Butts.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:


        Seriously? Yours are all excellent and highly substantive points but to wave a magic wand and absolutely declare no racism? That’s rose-coloured glasses territory. Some in this country just aren’t that generous. Think back to Mounties in turbans.

        • Fred from BC says:

          I see your point, Ronald…but what if the racism here was of a different kind? What if the NDP deliberately chose Singh as their leader to exploit his race for political gain? There are a lot of Canadians of Indian descent (and many of them are quite racist themselves).

          And the RCMP turban thing should have been nixed for safety reasons.

  3. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Could 2019 be 1972 all over again?

    You bet it could. Tired of repeating myself, so I’ll end it here.

  4. Fred from BC says:

    One poll is pretty much meaningless, two is troubling…but three different polls? That’s serious.

    Trudeau’s handlers need to figure out why people are turning away from him, and fast.

  5. Jack says:

    I look at this graph and the thing that sticks out to me immediately is that the Conservatives have hit their ceiling.

    You take BC, ON and QC into collective consideration and the Liberals have a lot of space to move with a collapsed NDP vote on a hypothetical vote night. The Conservatives have effectively no space to move and that is a big (predictable) problem for them. Particularly so considering that a majority Ford government in Ontario clearly is not producing a favourability bump for the federal Conservatives, even 10 months-ish out from an election.

    The points that Trudeau needs to retain a majority are there and more accessible than Scheer can hope for himself – that is what has always been the problem for the CPC.

    Other points worth noting:

    – Atlantic Canada still demonstrating love for the Liberals is very interesting and contrary to any over-saturation theories.

    – 25% and 21% in BC and SK/MB for the NDP respectively is also interesting and not at all as dire as I thought it was.

    – Contrarily, 18% and 14% in ON and QC for the NDP respectively is abysmal. Truth be told, I always knew the NDP/Jagmeet were going to struggle in ON because of how piss-poor the NDP’s brand traction is in the GTA. Looking towards QC, I’m not at all surprised. The NDP base in QC is comprised vastly of soft-separatists with a hard-on for diversity so Jagmeet was never going to retain support there. The NDP are paying the price of the deal they had made with QC voters going back to Layton’s days; they’ve abided the xenophobia and lied to themselves about disenfranchised Liberals – now their rhetoric as a progressive party has collided head first with their fairly backwards base in QC.

    – JFC; Alberta is really in a mood as of late. Can’t help but think that that kind of homogeneity in political preference is part of the problem in why that province struggles with change.

    – Final comment: the curve ball of 2019 is that nobody is going to really give a shit about federal politics for a good chunk of the year. The pile of shit that is American politics is about to hit the fan and the whole world is going to be consumed by it. The attention-span for campaign politics in Canada is going to be very limited.

    • Gord Tulk says:

      The left vote correlates heavily with dependency on government programs and infrastructure.

      Thus Atlantic Canada and urban Canada vote predominantly liberal or ndp.

      Alberta isn’t struggling with change. And is far more ethnically diverse than all of the Atlantic provinces. Calgary has more engineers per capita than any other city except Paris. What Canada is struggling with is the age old lack of respect of the Center for the east and west.

      • Derek Pearce says:

        Yes Gord because we all know that “urban Canada” relies on subsidies and government support and doesn’t remotely pay the whoppppppping majority of taxes in this country to funnel to rural areas. Yep not at all.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:


        In my book, a Canadian is a Canadian. I don’t consider the center of the universe better than the rest of the regions. I like to hope, cause this is almost 2019 (thanks, Justin) that most Canadians feel the same way. Am I living in a fool’s paradise for thinking that way?

    • lance says:

      Jack said,
      “– JFC; Alberta is really in a mood as of late. Can’t help but think that that kind of homogeneity in political preference is part of the problem in why that province struggles with change. ”

      Yeah, sheesh, you beat them when they’re down, actively try to sabotage their and (that so-called country) Canada’s major export, consistently ridicule them and have the sitting PM say the country is going to hell when they have a voice and then they have the gall to hate you for it.

      Go figure.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:


        The first lesson you learn in politics is that only supreme idiots go around deliberately attacking one region or another.

        Our biggest resource mistake in this country in not playing hard ball with the Yanks on WCS. We willingly allow them to rip us off of our resource…for considerably less than its worth. Our second gigantic mistake is lack of pipeline capacity and hammering out a deal that both Alberta and BC can support.

  6. Dork in East York says:

    I’m amazed the NDP is that high.

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