07.04.2021 06:44 PM

This week’s Sparky: election? What election?

21 Comments

  1. Gary says:

    Question for all of you: why the hell is Erin O’Toole polling behind this whimpy half-literate, vaccine hating creep? Why? Why isn’t he ahead by twenty points? What (if anything) has he done wrong?

    I am only seeing answers from the older and wiser. I saw Trudeau as the Canadian Trump and I figured the CPC were going the same route as the US Dems by picking the Canadian Biden. Why was I wrong?

    Anything at all would be greatly appreciated.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Gary,

      Frankly, Erin has to do what Legault did in the debates: he has to successfully reintroduce himself to Canadians and sell both himself and the party as non-threatening and Conservative middle of the road. I think he will and like Legault win. Once you prove you’re the real deal and if people are fed up with the outgoing government, that’s already have the battle there. Legault closed the deal and IMHO, so will O’Toole.

    • Nick in the 'frew says:

      Probably because people are watching.
      A majority of CPC voted in favour of Conversion Therapy.
      CPC MP’s misinform constantly on even the most mundane of issues.
      Erin O’Toole photoshops other people’s legs onto himself for pictures of himself jogging.
      Most all though?
      Canada is in a good spot, the current coalition of NDP/BQ/LPC ensures that Canada remains an open, caring nation and…the CPC major voting block, the elderly, got decimated by COVID.

      (Also, the CPC keep talking about Trudeau instead of their policy and themselves, so…people will just go to Trudeau. All the Trudeau talk is free adverts for the LPC, when will CPC learn?)

      • Gary says:

        The leader voted against conversion therepy and that is all that matters. In Canada, the party leader IS the party. Full stop.

        That should be more than enough.

    • Campbell says:

      “Why was I wrong?”

      My guess: you allowed your dislike if Trudeau to blind you to the fact that his successes and governing style are appreciated by a plurality of Canadians, and no one has learned how to trust O’Toole as of yet.

      • Gary says:

        What successes? What style?

        He reminds me, in all honesty, of the kids I knew growing up who were “slow” and had to be shuttled around special classes. Don’t you find?

        There is no place for someone like that in the seat of power. I have all the sympathy in the world for the intellectually disabled but there are issues with having them in office.

        • Robert White says:

          Especially in the case of Trump. I agree. Having the attention span of a kid strung out on white processed sugar is not conducive to National Security Briefings.

          RW

    • Gary says:

      *seeking

  2. irreversible road map to freedom says:

    Here is a list of all the problems that have been solved by Justin’s courageous refusal to quit:

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      IRMTF,

      He isn’t quitting because it wouldn’t be strategic: Carney hasn’t even got the training wheels on the bike yet– much less had his political baptism of fire so Trudeau leads them into the next election, for better or worse. Carney’s people for now are working on checking Freeland. Nothing else matters.

  3. irreversible road map to freedom says:

    I’ll give you a long, detailed answer because I am honestly intrigued by this phenomenon. Here is my take:

    Every opposition leader always polls behind the sitting PM no matter the circumstances. This is a remarkably consistent trend in every single federal election. For whatever reason, provincial elections don’t always have that peculiar dynamic. Nationally, if the opposition ever polls above the governing party at any point, it is always for a very brief time, maybe a week or so and always related to a specific issue that is very hot in the news.

    The reason for this is actually very simple. When average voters are asked who they support in between writ periods, they are always more inclined to support the status quo. It feels counter intuitive for wavering / UD voters to state that they want to change the government when an election is not in full swing.

    Further, it is my experience that only the most eccentric voters actually make up their minds on their own. It is far more common for people to listen to a loud mouth spouse / family member, neighbor, friend co-worker etc.. This is precisely why negative political ads are so effective. They are aimed directly at people who are more likely to start shooting their mouth off and influence their circle. People aren’t hearing “replace the government” sentiments from their loud mouth friends and neighbors because these days because… at the moment… no one cares.

    There is also a plethora of happy announcements featuring *government people* doing *governing stuff* so voters naturally associate the governing party with nice happy things. We therefore naturally see a 10 point gap in favor of the governing party. And if you think people are voting because of a careful examination of serious public policy issues, you are…. dead…. wrong.

    So, Conservatives who are jittery about O’Toole need to settle down. No opposition leader has ever polled better at this stage. Ever. They are all losing before the election starts. Every…. single…. time… Every…. single…. leader…

    Also, keep in mind that every almost every Canadian PM was announced as being DOA, finished, unelectable, hopeless, dead meat etc…. less than a few months before they were sworn in.

  4. Gilbert says:

    I hope Erin O’Toole starts to connect with Canadians. Maybe a lot of voters still don’t know who he is.

  5. Phil in London says:

    Plain and simple,
    1) the vaccine rollout is working better than most of the world. Yes we are not yet in the top 10 of fully vaccinated countries but we are slowly inching past the US on that (and are way ahead on first doses compared to many leading nations). I’m not saying our rollout wasn’t botched but 70 plus percent of us are getting the vaccine we need and want while developed countries like Australia and Japanese lagging – How is that a fail?

    2) except for one party, the divided opposition 100% wants to work the liberals. The most opposite of the liberals are the bloc but they damn well know that holding Trudeau to to the fire will be easier than O’Toole. The NDP still can’t figure out that as the farm they supply the talent to the Liberals when need be but are not ever going to major league as a whole. The independent caucus of Greens (not a party) and kicked out Conservatives such as Sloan DO NOT WANT a conservative win.

    3) Until the Conservatives can compete in Quebec, the 905 and the east coast they are the official opposition party in perpetuity. At best they will be a caretaker government while the Liberals re-invent themselves. Until the hard right in the west and in rural Ontario can learn to bridge the gap and include right-minded who are not red meat Conservatives none of these regional moves happen.

    4) other than not being Trudeau, what is the Conservative platform? With 16 months locked down would have been good info to have people reading while they had the time.

    • The Doctor says:

      Your point #3 pretty much nails it re the CPC. The CPC is getting in the habit of starting every election campaign off with one arm tied behind its back.

      And the party can’t seem to stay away from dumb culture war shit that makes their brand toxic in urban areas. And that’d be in one of the most urbanized countries in the world.

  6. Phil in London says:

    Anyone remember the outrage last year when the Liberals proposed that the opposition just let them govern as if they had a majority? That power grab putting things off till 2023 now looks a ton better than a true majority till 2025.

    • Phil,

      Harper governed during his minorities as if he had a majority. Worked out pretty well for him, that is, until 2015.

      • Phil in London says:

        Ron, big difference he governed that way from day one, Trudeau tried to usurp power using the pandemic as the back drop that conveniently swept away his latest scandal.

        I for one am resigned to a Trudeau majority. Eastern Canada doesn’t fire liberals until they are extremely long in the tooth. Might as well let them own the mess, let Trudeau sail off and see how much of his stench sits with Freeland, Carney or some lesser weight a la Dionne.

  7. Gilbert says:

    I’m not resigned to a Liberal majority. Even a number of Liberal MPs don’t like their leader. A number of issues will spell trouble for the liberals: the WE scandal, SNC-Lavalin, indigenous issues, feminism, Judy Wilson Raybould, Harjit Sajjan, coronavirus cases, the dangerous virus samples from the Winnipeg lab that were sent to China, the Canadians in China, and the plight of oil and gas.

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