08.21.2021 08:32 PM

Holy

25 Comments

  1. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    You said it brother. For most people, it’s unexpected. Now comes the hard part if it’s confirmed by other polling companies in due course: holding the line until September 20th and making damned sure that the leader and the candidates don’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s O’Toole’s to lose now and he better not for Canada’s sake.

    • Pedant says:

      At these numbers, the Liberals will still likely win the most seats, probably 5-10 more than the Conservatives. They will therefore continue to govern in coalition with the NDP but Trudeau’s days will be numbered and that’s what matters most.

      I don’t like that this polling shift is occuring so early in the campaign though. I’m reminded of the 2004 election when the Harper Conservatives overtook the Martin Liberals mid-campaign, only to be beaten back down.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Pedant,

        I thought the same thing you did but the likely ace in the hole is that O’Toole is not Harper, or even Scheer — meaning the leader is less likely to rub potential voters the wrong way right out of the gate and through the campaign.

  2. Sean says:

    Not an outlier. This is the third poll showing this trend in the past week or so. Very predictable. Naturally this is what all the secret huddles are about in Ottawa this weekend. Team corruption knows this election isn’t about a majority anymore. Its about who forms government.

    O’Toole has the momentum because he’s out making serious announcements. He framed the campaign around his platform – which is perfectly crafted from the 2005-06 playbook – to deliver salient policies that *voters will remember *.

    It will be very entertaining to watch if things start to crumble around Justin in the next week or so. A lot of people will start coming out of the woodworks to tell the truth about what everyone on the inside really thinks about the guy. It ain’t pretty.

    The only thing holding together his ridiculous house of cards has been the perception that he can’t lose. Once that illusion is removed, its going to get very ugly, very quickly.

    • Pedant says:

      Also, don’t forget – Jody Wilson-Raybould’s book comes out a week before election day. Unfortunately though many votes will have already been cast by then.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Pedant,

        The public service has publicly been treated as clueless and incompetent by this Prime Minister so just wait until the revenge manilas start to fly in this election. It’s going to be epic but not for Trudeau.

    • Peter Williams says:

      The Liberals and the CBC will trot out:
      1. Abortion, abortion, abortions
      2. Gun control
      3. Free stuff (perhaps $500 of free cosmetics to aid in the she-covert?)

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Peter,

        Like I said before, last Sunday marked the launch of a campaign where at least a plurality and probably a majority of voting Canadians were either sick of, disgusted by or outright hated this PM. So, TeamTrudeau and his ever willing sycophants can have at it but they long ago burned their bridges with one hell of a lot of likely voters.

      • Quo vadis says:

        Don’t forget the threat of private Healthcare

  3. Dave H says:

    Is the bigger shock that Trudeau is no longer leading, or that Bernier is at 6% and even with the Bloc?

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Dave,

      IMHO, that so-called 6% would have to be concentrated to have a meaningful effect and actually win seats. Meanwhile, the three main parties have access to and have databased the photos. In potential ridings if or when the PPC is surging, expect to see all those smiles on the airwaves and the quick removal of the smirk on Bernier’s face.

    • Walter says:

      With 1.6% of the vote in 2019, Bernier was still able to deny the CPC 7 seats.
      With 6% support in 2019 – Bernier likely would have handed Trudeau a majority.

  4. J.Ph. Brunet says:

    Probably puts PPC in the debates.

  5. Pedant says:

    The attempted vaccine mandate wedge issue flopped badly for the Liberals. Almost nobody finds the CPC’s position on it objectionable or unreasonable (even if they disagree with it), and people have moved on.

    O’Toole deftly blunted the abortion talking point, forcing Maryam Monsef to have a Twitter meltdown. O’Toole is no Scheer; he is far shrewder, and benefits from rock-bottom expectations.

    The Liberals look like they’re flailing. My concern is that this is happening far too early in the campaign which gives them a chance to recover, helped along by their fawning paid-for media.

  6. RKJ says:

    I agree with all these comments posted above. Polls going the right way – how soon will the CBC get nervous? For the sake of Canada, Erin, don’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. And, what about the PPC numbers…. I am nervously monitoring and am also getting a strong sense that Erin O’Toole is definitely not Andrew Scheer – this may go Erin’s way indeed. It is possible the liberal vote will actually split to the NDP & Conservatives, especially if Justin’s people start talking.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      RKJ,

      Once the perception sets in that Trudeau blew it — on so many issues — the Ignatieff effect (sorry Michael) will take hold with Liberals sitting the vote out in considerable numbers. If that happens, as I’ve expected from Day One of this campaign, the CPC is in with at least a minority and YES, ladies and gentlemen, a deep voting FLASH CRASH at the expense of the Liberals could put the CPC into majority territory. It’s no longer almost impossible.

      • Walter says:

        Is there really such a thing as a CPC minority.
        I have no doubt that Trudeau will offer Pharacare, Childcare, and boatloads of cash to Quebec to use as they wish and will be able to hold government. He must do this or his entire corrupt record will be exposed.

        • Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Walter,

          There is some talk that the Bloc is losing some strength but to whose benefit? Frankly, I have no idea.

        • RKJ says:

          Point well taken regarding Conservatives unlikely to form a minority government. And, Ronald, hope you are correct regarding liberal voters staying home.

  7. Phil in London says:

    Cue the hidden agenda mud sling

  8. Douglas W says:

    Lots of runway, left in this campaign.

    Trudeau, excellent in retail politics.
    He does have the capacity to turn the Liberal campaign around. And he might.

    But JT, talking about the cooties every day when cootie cases are on the rise and he called a needless $620-million election, does not register with voters.

    Trudeau has got to change the channel, real fast.

    • Phil in London says:

      Excellent in retail politics? When? Saying Um ah Um does not make for great campaigning. Harper’s government was tired in round one and the liberal team was enticing. True he was the star but Morneau, Raybold Wilson, and Philpot are some heavy losses. Second time round the conservative leader stumbled from day one, Singh was not ready and screaming Liz May was happy to prop up liberal fortunes in debates and was practically cheering for him. The scandals of snc Lavalin and We are not replaced with some competitive reason to admire team red.
      The boy king needs wallowing crowds that he’s not likely to find. His act is wearing thin as well and the other three parties Bloc NDP and conservative all seem much better prepared to fight a campaign.
      Will he be sent packing? I hope so but the lad does have a lucky horseshoe up his ass do don’t rule him out…. yet.

  9. A. Voter says:

    Seat projections for the upcoming federal election. 170 needed for a majority. Election Prediction Project: LIB 115 CON 96 NDP 18 BQ 22 GRN 1 Too close to call 86. Canada338: LIB 156 CON 117 NDP 36 BQ 27 GRN 2
    As of August 21.

  10. Gilbert says:

    It’s far too early to predict what will happen, but the Liberals must be nervous. Many Canadians don’t want this election. Erin O’Toole looks and talks like an adult, and the prime minister has told us he’s clueless about monetary policy. It seems more and more Canadians are ready for a change.

  11. J.Ph. Brunet says:

    The line it is drawn
    The curse it is cast
    The slow one now
    Will later be fast
    As the present now
    Will later be past
    The order is rapidly fadin’
    And the first one now will later be last
    For the times they are a-changin’
    –Bob Dylan

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