• How are the Conservatives doing in this campaign? Not well, as I’ve written for the past week.  Every day, it seems, events conspire – through bad luck, through Liberal/NDP/Bloc war room hijinks, through sheer Conservative war room/campaign incompetence – to derail the Reformatory message of the day.  When you consider how disciplined and focused the Cons were in 2004, 2006 and 2008, it’s pretty surprising.  Here’s the anatomy of one day, yesterday, that again went awry.
• Ethics: In the wake of the sponsorship affair, the Conservatives solemnly promised to hold themselves a higher ethical standard.  In fairness, they haven’t had an sponsorship-sized scandals yet (although In and Out mess, I suspect, will come very close). In recent months, however, we’ve seen one demi-scandal after another.  The latest, of course, involves senior PMO advisor Bruce Carson and his associate, a former call girl.  Carson had a lengthy criminal record and had been disbarred; apparently, this didn’t impair his ability to work for Joe Clark, Brian Mulroney or Stephen Harper.  In the latter case, we were told yesterday, Carson disclosed his criminal record to Harper’s Chief of Staff.  Harper, for his part, asked us to believe that no one told him.  He concluded the day, plaintively, with this wonderfully circular claim:  “I don’t know why I did not know.” Net result: Harper’s message of the day was, yet again, hijacked by members of his own team.
• Messaging/Visuals: Speaking of messaging, anyone know what Harper’s message of the day was, Monday?  Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller? I can tell you what Harper wanted it to be, but what you actually remember is his absurdly comic spin on an ATV, wearing a helmet that made him resemble that irritating, macrocephalic alien on The Flintstones. His message, meanwhile, was about scrapping the long gun registry, yet again – but what we got was the Great Gazoo on an ATV, plus some old guy who had a record, and an escort who knew more members of cabinet than Hill and Knowlton.  For a guy hunting, as it were, for a majority – and thereby in desperate need of female votes – why the Hell start fulminating, angrily, against gun control?  When gun control is, you know, very popular with women both urban and rural?  Net result: a mangled message, at best.  Lost votes, at worst.
• Opposition: The damned Liberals, meanwhile, had another good day.  They handed out 600,000 abbreviated copies of their platform to morning commuters from coast to coast, Ignatieff himself getting in on the fun with paper-deliveries to startled ferry-riders in Dartmouth. Later, they had a pithy line – “vets, not jets” – and managed to look patriotic and parsimonious at the same time. Net result: they kicked Harper’s keester.
• The backrooms: Coincidentally, here’s what I had to say on that very subject in this moning’s Sun:  “Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and his caucus, of course, have been doing very well on the campaign trail.  But among unelected Grits, it is Richardson and Ashworth who have made the most difference.  From the time of their arrival in Ottawa, Richardson and Ashworth have firmly taken control, and gently moved aside many of the ineffectual, self-absorbed senior staffers Ignatieff had around him (that is, the ones who took the party even lower than Stephane Dion did).  The pair have given the Liberal Party’s efforts a maturity and strategic sense that, until just a few weeks ago, it simply didn’t have.”
• The people: Think I’m wrong?  I often am, but check out the latest Nanos.  The Conservative campaign is losing ground outside the West, big time.
• Pic of the day: I’m sorry, this one of the Great Gazoo is a classic.  Caption contest!

Logan Day, come home. All is forgiven.

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“If the Liberal Party of Canada ends up doing better than expected in Campaign 2011 — and, so far, the Grits are doing much better than anyone thought they would — they should give Bob Richardson and Gordon Ashworth a great big thank you.

In fact, if the Liberals somehow win back power, Richardson and Ashworth should be appointed to the Senate (one of them, I’m pretty sure, would accept).

They’re not household names, but they’d probably prefer it that way. The Toronto-based businessmen are partners in a modestly-sized consulting firm called the Devon Group.”

 

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A proof is a proof.

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Option A:

PM wouldn’t have hired Carson if he knew his past
The Canadian Press, Mon. Apr. 4 2011 11:18 AM ET

Option B:

Ex-adviser told PMO about his fraud conviction: lawyer
The Canadian Press, Sunday Apr. 3, 2011 8:47 PM ET

Option C:

Quote of the day from the federal election campaign trail
The Canadian Press, Apr. 4, 2011, 10:58 AM

“I did not know about these revelations that we’re finding out today. I don’t know why I did not know.” – Prime Minister Stephen Harper on why he hired Bruce Carson as an adviser even though Carson had been convicted on five counts of fraud.

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Oh, and according to the Hill Times this morning, Tim Hudak’s Big Tobacco lobbyist/campaign manager is in the Harper war room.

Sure will be interesting, the Ontario campaign.

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• And so begins Week Two, sort of: Right about now, 600,000 or so Canadians, from coast to coast, are receiving copies of the Metro free paper give-away, wrapped in a pithy and sunny description of the Liberal platform.  In Halifax, Dartmouth ferry commuters are being handed the paper by Michael Ignatieff – elsewhere, members of his caucus.  It’s a brilliant tactic by my pal Bob Richardson.  And I write about that, and other stuff, in tomorrow’s Sun.
• Poll palaver: Here’s the latest: “The Conservatives have opened up a 14-point lead over the Liberals, according to a Nanos daily tracking poll, and start the second full week of the election campaign sitting firmly above the 40-per-cent mark – the kind of support that typically leads to a majority government.” That’s Ipsos-sized, but here’s the point I always make about these horseracey polls during campaigns: the job of a campaign isn’t to analyze polls, or even read them; the role of a campaign is to change the polls. The Reformatories, IMHO, are running a complacent, arrogant campaign, one that doesn’t build support; the Liberals are running an edgy campaign that seeks to attract attention and expand their base.  Am I right?  Am I wrong?
• Lobby this: Registered lobbyists – you know, dastardly people like the Salvation Army, United Church and a plethora of environmentalists and farmers – are being told they aren’t allowed to work on this, or any, election campaign.  My expert analysis: that’s STUPID. I spoke to this Hill Times reporter, and told her that it is absurd that folks who lobby are being denied democratic participation. What do you think?
• The Conservatives seem to think their own rules are stupid, too:  Check this out – my friend Ken Boessenkool is in the Con war room, anyway – see here. Ken’s played a key war room role in every Harper campaign, and would be influential were he in the war room or not.  It’s a dumb Harper-era rule, and one that will only trip up Harperites.  Joe and Jane Frontporch don’t give a crap about insider stuff like this.
• Rumour du jour: I’m hearing Iggy is in a good mood, assisted in that regard by his spouse.  Harper, meanwhile, is apparently quite unhappy about his campaign team so far (and he should be) and is dropping the F-bomb far and wide.  Who’s got dish?
• Harper’s a chicken, part ad infinitum: Rick Mercer, he of Doris Day fame, isn’t letting it go. Neither should the Liberals.  Repeat over and over: “I’m not afraid to debate Stephen Harper about [FILL IN BLANK].  He’s afraid, however.  He challenged me to a one-on-one debate, I immediately said yes, and then he chickened out.” Everywhere Iggy goes, everytime he gets asked about something, say that.  And travel with an empty chair with Harper’s name on it.  It’s a useful visual reminder, too.
• Best war room so far? The Libs, led by my former colleagues Kevin Bosch, Ben Parsons, Brian Clow and others.  These guys are very dedicated, and lethal in the extreme.  As I pointed out in this morning’s Hill Times, they’ve stomped all over the Tory message machine, just about every day. That’s how a war room wins.
• Where’s that bus? By the time you read this, Tony Philips is somewhere under that big Reformatory bus, the one used to flatten countless Conservative political staffers.  Unbeknownst to many, Philips is from Belleville, and was a LIBERAL who worked on the 2004 candidates’ campaign, and was even on the executive there.  He was one of those super-ambitious Young Liberals who wanted to make a name for himself. ( I guess he now has.) He became a Conservative in 2007-2008 after he moved to Ottawa, and had been unsuccessful getting a job in a Liberal office.
• Pic of the day: From the weekend.  Kennedy analyzes it, here.  Caption contest!

“Listen, you little delinquent, do you want a friggin’ doughnut or not?  I don’t have time to stand here for this facile agitprop bullshit all day.”

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I hope they leave him alone, but I suspect they won’t.

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• It’s Sunday, so KCCCC should be taking a day of rest.  But we won’t!  If Iggy is up, working to unveil his platform, then we work, too!  After Mass.
• So, um, about that platform: As in comedy, platform timing is everything.  Mike Harris released his Common Sense one more than a year before the writ – and he won a big majority.  Jean Chretien released his Red Book at the start of the campaign – and he won a massive majority.  Stephen Harper didn’t really release one at all, last time, and he won anyway.  So what to do?  The Grits, clearly, want to press the advantage they’ve been building up in Week One: they’re releasing theirs today, with a focus on families. Will it pay dividends?  I think so: if nothing else, platforms provide a useful prop for leaders under attack (and, believe me, Iggy will be facing an even more vicious Con attack, soon enough).  They can wave it around and say:  “Don’t believe the lies the other guy is saying about me.  Here’s my plan.  Read it for yourself.”  Mostly, it tells voters that you’ve prepared for government, and you’re ready.
• Media roundup: Even longtime Harper cheerleaders are saying the Reformatory boss isn’t doing so well.  Lorne Gunter: “Mr. Harper and his party stumbled on the week’s two big issues -who should participate in the leaders’ debate and the threat of a post-election coalition among the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois. They seemed unprepared for the election, despite being as eager for one as any other party (and despite having far more resources than their rivals). A party that has developed a reputation for tightly scripting its messages and for its Machiavellian manipulation of its opponents looked decidedly pedestrian as it let others define the debate issue.” John Robson: “…the Conservative party [is] nowhere near me. I [am] pro-life, seriously pro-military and against big-spending high-taxing governments. If Stephen Harper took the poll giving answers honestly drawn from the actual performance and platform of his party, he wouldn’t get that result, I can tell you.”
• Pic of the day: From Harper’s avail this morning on the youth fitness incentive, taking place at a gym where people are working out.  This one is weirder than weird.  Caption contest!

 

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Everyone had some ups and downs. But with Week 1 now concluded, the winner is — no question — Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals.

Polls are showing that, too. The yawning, nearly 20-point divide that separated the Tories and the Grits at the campaign’s start is now gone. Harper’s fearsome election machine has stalled, while Ignatieff’s more modest equivalent is surging closer. At week’s end, reliable polls showed as little as eight percentage points separating the two main contenders.

Meanwhile, Ignatieff’s personal approval ratings, which have been in the basement for two years, are now up dramatically.

So, too, are his Twitter and Facebook fans. Liberal fundraising is up. And, at the doors, Liberal candidates tell me they are getting lots of favourable comments about Ignatieff, along with plenty of requests for campaign signs and literature. So, um, what happened?

Three things…

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