Quite a few of you regulars – Lala, Namesake, et al. – have suggested to me that the Libs are smart to make the election frame about ethics, and not economy. They’ve accordingly told me I’m wrong to be worried about what’ll happen to my party if a campaign happens in the Spring.

Fair enough. Maybe they’re right, maybe I’m wrong. Here’s my three-point rationale:

1. The top of mind issue for Canadians, by a long shot, is the economy. It usually is. I consequently don’t see how we can ignore the economy in a 36-day campaign. I understand the desire to avoid talking about an issue that is a Conservative strength. I get it. But the economy? Get serious. That’s the 600-pound gorilla in the room. Ignore it at your peril.

2. I like the ethics theme as a ballot question. I do. I mean, it is clear that the ruling party was engaged in a widespread conspiracy to defraud taxpayers, and that they cheated in the election. It’s not conjecture: Conservatives have been charged with breaking the law. But here’s the problem: voters are pretty skeptical about “scandal” stuff – they’ve heard too many baseless allegations get thrown around too many times. That’s not all: it takes weeks and months to publicize and explain something like the “in and out” conspiracy – Hell, it took Harper more than a year to capitalize on the sponsorship stuff. It’ll take too much time to tell the story right.

3. Look at the polls, folks. If you take Quebec out of the picture (where the Bloc utterly dominates, anyway), the Reformatories have A TWENTY POINT LEAD in English Canada. Twenty points! That’s massacre time.

I understand the grim assessment made by some Libs – “let’s just get it over with, nothing is going to change.” I also have heard some senior staff in OLO have simply given up.

But that’s emotion – that’s not a strategy, folks. It’s also a formula for disaster.

I don’t want us reduced to third party status. I think going now, and going on the ethics theme, will lead to a majority Harper Government.

That’s what I think, anyway. What’s your view? Comments are open.

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Today is Ash Wednesday. As such, and as in years previous, I’m swearing off the booze for the next forty days.

I’d also give up politics, too, but I think the federal stuff is going to be rather addictive for the next few weeks.

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I am reliably informed that The Walrus is going to have an interesting analysis of the Liberal Party of Canada in a coming issue. Stay tuned!

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@TheTorontoSun: Ontario graduation rates have jumped to 81% – that’s up from 68% in 2003 when McGuinty’s government took office: http://bit.ly/fkbF4N

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More, here, in the best column I’ve read so far this year. Waaaaaaaaah!

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FORT MYERS, Fa. — If you want an idea about how the recession could have happened in Canada, but didn’t, take a look around here.

Once the playground of the affluent and the super-rich, coastal Florida was one of the first places to be hit by the global recession. It’ll be one of the last places to exit it.

All around southwestern Florida, there are ugly scars — unmistakable signs people are still struggling. Foreclosure notices are everywhere, as are ads for bankruptcy sales — and bankruptcy help. Shuttered businesses can be seen wherever you look. And, along a sunny stretch of beach once favoured by Floridians piloting big yachts, someone has planted some hand-written signs. “Our house for sale,” it says. “EMERGENCY.”

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Personally, I support Lilley and (like many people, most of them in the NDP), I think Mulcair is a jerk.

Read the Hill Times transcript and cast your own vote!

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The main reason for posting this, truth be told, is the big dump of snow back home.  Sorry, but I’m cruel in that way.

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Why would they do this? Am I missing something? Is crack as addictive as they say?

Discuss.

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Do you ever get the feeling that we have elections to see if the polls were right?

I sure do. The American humorist Robert Orben said that, or something like that, many years ago. Surveying the current Canadian political landscape, you’d have to agree, too.

For a few years now, surveys of Canadians’ political opinions have been pretty darn consistent. Folks didn’t like the Conservatives enough to give them a majority — and they didn’t trust the Liberals enough to give them a minority.

The pollsters also told us, regularly, that Joe and Jane Frontporch didn’t love Prime Minister Stephen Harper very much — but they loved opposition leader Michael Ignatieff even less. Meanwhile, Joe and Jane liked NDP boss Jack Layton plenty, but not enough to ever let him near power.

And so it went over the past few years — see-sawing up and down, a few points here and few points there, but no one ever really breaking ahead of the pack.

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