Ipsos, just received

Tories Breaking Out Of Stalemate
Tories (39%) Open 10-Point Lead Over Grits (29%) Nationally, Improved Showing in Quebec from Earlier This Year

Toronto, ON – As we approach the end of a year which saw virtually no movement in the level of support for Canada’s federal political parties, a new Ipsos Reid poll has revealed that, after being stuck at roughly 35% support for the better part of the year, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are breaking out of the stalemate.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive 39% of the vote among decided voters, up 4 points from one month ago. The Conservatives haven’t been this high in the polls since the fall of both 2008 and 2009.

By comparison, Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party are trailing by 10 points and would receive 29% of vote support, unchanged from last month.

Jack Layton and the NDP would garner 12% of the vote (down 4 points), while 9% of Canadians would vote for Elizabeth May and the Green Party (down 2 points). The Bloc would receive 10% of the vote, nationally, and 6% of Canadians remain undecided.


Slamming the cyber-door after the cyber-horse has left the cyber-barn

The arrest of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has resulted in what some had foretold – a massive, global web-based attack on the web presence of corporations and governments. Here, in turn, is some of the newspaper reaction this morning:

But the cyber war against these companies, in retaliation for cutting off WikiLeaks, takes the anti-social behaviour of these “hactivists” to another level. It also dramatically underscores how vulnerable the Internet is to attack by ruthless and unscrupulous criminals, and how the world urgently needs an enforceable cyber-security protocol. As retired Canadian diplomat Paul Meyer notes in the current issue of Policy Options, the UN has been talking about it for a decade without getting it done.”

And:

Information security experts warn, however, that Canadian corporations and several government departments are not properly ensuring sensitive data aren’t stolen or lost. This is especially problematic because attacks by hackers are on the increase and are becoming more sophisticated. The experts warn that countries and terrorist organizations are increasingly relying on hacker techniques to wage war on their enemies.

And:

The New York Times, for example, was the Julian Assange of the Vietnam War era. When the matter came before the U.S. Supreme Court, here’s what the judges concluded: “Only a free and unrestrained press can effectively expose deception in government.” The man who leaked the Pentagon Papers, Daniel Ellsberg, had this to say about the WikiLeaks affair: “Powerful forces in America who thrive on secrecy are trying to stuff the genie back into the bottle.”

And that’s just in Canadian newspapers.  All around the globe, today, pundits are reacting with astonishment to the notion that an anarchic, anonymous coalition of computer-savvy people – kids, most of them – could actually bring big corporations and big governments to their proverbial knees for what has been done to one of their own, Julian Assange.

They shouldn’t be surprised.

That last quoted passage, above, is by my friend and Sun colleague Michael Harris, who always gets it.  As Michael says, you’re way too late, governments and corporations.  You can’t control the Internet, as much as you would now desperately like to.  It is now, truly, a World Wide Web, and the people who generate most of its content are real people.  And they’re real people who enjoy, quite frankly, seeing powerful interests being taught a painful lesson.

It all mirrors what is taking place in democracy everywhere – and we’ve certainly seen it Canada, in 2010, and particularly in municipal races in places like Toronto and Calgary.  There is a surging anti-establishment mood gripping lots and lots of people.  It isn’t ideological, and it isn’t partisan: it’s an equal-opportunity anger movement, and it’s preoccupied with smacking around whomever happens to be wielding power.

You see it whenever a Barefoot Bandit, or his equivalent, is at work: people cheer for him, because they secretly (and not-so-secretly) love to see powerful forces get embarrassed by someone who isn’t very powerful at all.  People love the underdog.  In 2010, they love underdogs a lot.

Getting big companies like PayPal and Amazon and Visa to hit WikiLeaks in the pocketbook is as idiotic as it is predictable.  So, too, threatening Assange with untold prosecutions on trumped-up charges – and even now prosecuting him in a case that looks, to many of us, highly coincidental and therefore suspect.  To me, what I see in the papers this morning are the institutions that people truly hate these days – banks, and huge corporations, and bellicose governments – doing what they always do: reacting stupidly, corporately, and way too late. They should all send a bunch of “secret” cables to each other about their plans. They do that a lot, apparently.

I tried to think of a metaphor that fits, to make my point.  I settled on a fight between a big, slow, dumb dinosaur – being besieged by an army of fast, smart, tiny mammals with really sharp teeth.

And we all know what happened to those big, slow and dumb dinosaurs, don’t we?



Record Player – Lawrence Arms

The daughter and I were rocking out to this piece of genius this morning. Now you can, too.

The words are truer than you’d think.

I’m like a record player
I keep goin’ round with a needle in my arm, making someone else’s sound
And lately I’ve been dreaming of blue and empty skies
But nothing like that ever crosses red and weary eyes

I’ve been traveling with bottles, working close with cans
Sitting up for hours with my best friends in a van
Now they say that this ain’t living, but I don’t know what they mean
Cause I don’t feel dead, and baby you look alive to me
It’s the only game that I know how to play

The time, the time, to say goodbye
passed us long ago.
And I would say I’ve overstayed my welcome.
But you know, I don’t think I’m ever going home.

I don’t need a doctor, ’cause anyone can see
That I had all of these shots, and I am still sick as I can be.
I think I need to rest my eyes, so baby come with me
Lay down here beside me, keep me warm while I sleep.

There’s trouble on the way – Huh! You’d best believe, there always is, don’t worry
Sit and have a drink with me. When we go, all we got is these days that we made.
But I don’t wanna waste them, being wistful or afraid.

Without all of you I’d be even lower down.
You know what I want to say, but I can’t get it out.


Journalists, take note

I know that some Ottawa-based members of the commentariat like to take shots at QMI and Sun media, and that’s fine. A bit of competitive jousting is a good thing, even if some of it sounds bitchy sometimes.

But I wanted to draw your attention – and your CV, if relevant – to the fact that QMI and the Sun are engaged in the biggest hiring effort since Conrad Black created the Post, more than a decade ago.

Here’s a sampling of the stuff I’ve received in my inbox just this morning. There’s been even more help wanted notices in recent weeks and months, too. If you have the credentials, apply away. You can send your CV to Robert.frizzell@suntv.canoe.ca and/or resumes@suntv.canoe.ca. Good luck!

News Anchor
Location: Toronto
Reporting directly to the National News Director, the successful candidate will deliver the latest headlines, lead topical discussions and provide experienced and thoughtful analysis on the day’s most newsworthy issues.

Reporter
Position Locations: Toronto Sun, Ottawa Bureau, Vancouver 24 Hours, Calgary Sun, Montreal
The successful candidates will work in a competitive environment with a motivated team to deliver content for broadcast as well as print and other Quebecor media platforms.

Resource Coordinator
Location: Toronto
Reporting to the National Assignment Editor and ultimately to the Managing Editor of news programming the successful candidate will help direct the news gathering flow of a continuous and national news operation. Using existing and emerging video delivery systems the Resource Coordinator will ensure the prompt and efficient flow of information and content from multiple external sources to the central production centre in Toronto.

Senior Graphics Artist
Location: Toronto
The Senior Graphics Artist will conceptualize and create graphics for on-air use. Reporting to the Director of Technical Operations and working alongside the production staff and the rest of the graphics team, the Senior Graphics Artist will work to provide original and informative graphics to enhance the on-screen presentation.

Senior News Anchor
Location: Toronto
Reporting directly to the National News Director, the Sr. News Anchor will deliver the latest headlines, lead topical discussions and provide experienced and thoughtful analysis on the day’s most newsworthy issues.

Senior Weather Anchor
Location: Toronto
Reporting directly to the National News Director the Senior Weather Anchor will oversee all aspects of weather reporting including severe weather coverage, and will provide background on supplementary aspects such as environmental issues. This position will form part of the overall anchoring team and as such requires strong on-air presentation skills with an emphasis on live remote abilities and unscripted material.


The stench of death (updated)

Everyone who has worked in politics knows what it is.

It’s hard to define, as is the joy that you get from a winning campaign. It’s a feeling, and one that you really can’t put into words.  You walk into a winning campaign, or attend a jubilant rally, or whatever, and you can feel it. It’s a winning feeling.  It’s the best feeling there is, pretty much.

It’s not a scientific measurement, by any means.  When I had the privilege to run for Jean Chretien in North Vancouver in 1997, for example, a member of my family – one who had lots of political experience – observed my campaign office and amazing team, and said that it truly “feels like a winning campaign.”  Except that I lost, decisively, to a guy the Canadian Press called “elfin,” and whom his own leader despised.  So it’s not always an accurate measurement.

But this week, at least, quite a few political noses are starting to twitch.  They are wondering if the smell of defeat is starting to settle in around the Liberal Party of Canada.

First, there was the respected Nik Nanos, suggesting in his big end-of-year survey that the Reformatories are on track for a majority.  Said Nik: “The current configuration of national support for the Conservatives suggests that numerically a Tory majority government can be formed without significant breakthrough in the province of Quebec.”

Then, there was that Abacus poll everyone was wondering about, showing there Harper party more than ten points ahead of the Ignatieff team.  Said Abacus, which is not yet well-known: “The Conservatives dominate the opposition parties among Canadians aged 45 and over, and have large leads in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and in British Columbia.  In battleground Ontario, the Conservatives have an 8-point lead over the Liberals, with the NDP trailing at 21%.”

Then, yesterday afternoon, the Angus Reid poll that really had Grit phones and Blackberries buzzing: the poll that had the Grits a big 12 points behind the Reformatories – and half of the identified Liberal vote wanting a change in leadership.  Unlike all of the other leaders, Angus Reid said in a release, “the situation is unquestionably different for Michael Ignatieff, with a majority of Canadians (56%) and almost half of Liberal voters in 2008 (46%) claiming that the Grits should change their leader before the next federal election.”

And, finally, last night – not a poll, but a performance.  Stephen Harper tinkling the ivories, and singing up a storm, at the Conservative staff Christmas party.  Even the paper that historically favours the Liberal Party, the Toronto Star, was gushing: “Stephen Harper as Mick Jagger? Hard to imagine, but there was the Prime Minister belting out “Jumpin’ Jack Flash” in front of a packed crowd of Conservative MPs and staff Wednesday night…[it was] a foot-stomping, hand-clapping show that had cabinet ministers dancing.”

(The OLO response? They deplored the fact Harper didn’t sing anything in French. Seriously. Perhaps the unilingual anglophone OLO Director of Communications came up with that one.)

What’s it all mean?  Well, some will say it’s a lot of rock’n’roll sound and fury signifying nothing, of course.  The polls are outliers, Harper’s performance won’t change voters’ views about him, no one cares about politics right now and they don’t want an election anytime soon, and so on.

Those are all fair comments.  They may even be true.

But on this bitterly-cold December morning, I can tell you that quite a few Liberals are starting to get highly, highly uncomfortable.  They are unhappy. They are asking questions.  They are wondering if this week is a blip, or a trend.

And their noses are starting to twitch, and not just because of the cold.

UPDATE: And Frank Graves clears the air, returning it to its previous pleasant odour!


Fifteen Songs

On Facebook, Susannah Sears challenged me to ’15 Songs,’ which seemed fitting, today.

She explains:

“(1) Turn on your MP3 player or music player on your computer.

(2) Go to SHUFFLE songs mode.

(3) List the first 15 songs that come up (song title and artist) NO editing/cheating, please. Even if you might skip the song when it comes up or be embarrassed for people to know that it’s in your collection, you still must list it.

(4) Choose people to be tagged. It is generally considered to be in good taste to tag the person who tagged you. If I tagged you, it’s because I’m betting that your musical selection is entertaining.

To do this, go to “NOTES” under tabs on your profile page (or click on “+ write a note” button at the top of the page), paste these instructions in the body of the note, enter your 15 Shuffle Songs, Tag 25 people (under the post) then click Publish.”

Here’s what I’ve come up with (or, rather, iTunes did). For fun, do likewise – tell the rest of us your fifteen. Lennon would approve; it avoids musical snobbery and dishonesty.

And, yes, you do see ‘La Traviata’ there.

1.  Loved Ones – Spy Diddley

2.  NOFX – Leaving Jesusland

3. Lillingtons – Robots in my Dreams

4. Patsy Cline – Got A Lotta Rhythm In My Soul

5. Ramones – What’s Your Game

6. Richard Hayes and the Eddie Sauter Orchestra – Junco Partner

7. The Jam – Down In The Tube Station At Midnight

8. Psychedelic Furs – Pretty In Pink

9. The Ruts – Something That I Said

10. Booker T and the MGs – Green Onions

11. Jonathan Richman and the Modern Lovers – Here Come the Martian Martians

12. The National – Bloodbuzz Ohio

13. Nirvana – Lounge Act

14. Royal Philharmonic Orchestra – La Traviata

15. The Undertones – Casbah Rock