Silly season is upon us

…and, with it, speculative stories about Liberal leadership that (in this case) contain one (1) anonymous source who advises against a change, and one (1) former member of the Liberal Party given front-page treatment for his views on the, um, Liberal Party.

Summer must be imminent.  Silly political coverage is upon us.


From one friend to another

It’s only been hours.  But as someone who has been a devoted supporter Israel for many years, it seems to me that the attack on that boat carrying supplies was an act of profound stupidity.

If, as has been reported, the people on the ship were unarmed, I cannot see how the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can survive.  If they were unarmed – if – Netanyahu has recklessly plunged Israel into a downward spiral of instability and further isolation.

Coverage here and here and here, from sources that can’t be seen as highly critical of Israel.

Your views are welcome, but keep it calm.  I won’t hesitate to delete anyone who gets out of hand, on either side of the divide.


Kid Kodak Kontroversy Kontinues

Meanwhile, characterizations of Marin’s “oppressive” workplace continued to flow into the Toronto Star, with 11 current and former employees calling to question his suitability for the watchdog job.

…a Star investigation found that three former employees and one current staffer say Marin and his trusted managers are petty tyrants with bizarre and strict rules on office etiquette. In letters to government officials and in two complaints to the Human Rights Tribunal, workers allege racial discrimination by the Ombudsman’s Office, which has denied discrimination against employees.

After the story appeared, the Star received calls from people identifying themselves as current or former employees, all requesting anonymity for fear of being fired or other reprisals. A former manager said he could not be identified due to terms of a separation agreement.

“There was an oppressive atmosphere,” said the former manager said, who said unwritten but understood rules discouraged employees from walking the hallway in front of Marin’s office, or placing personal effects on their desks.

Personally, I’m all for the NDP and the Conservatives endorsing this guy. He’ll have about as much credibility as John Gomery, by the time this thing is over.

Maybe less.


Contempt of Parliament

The Reformatories are getting silly, again.  They don’t mind demanding committee appearances by backroomers (like me) when they were in Opposition – but now that they are in government, it’s a different story.

Jane calls them on it, here.


Coalition analysis – from a Harper Conservative

There are thoughtful Conservatives! It’s true!

One of them – a guy/gal who is a good friend and is indeed what the media call a “senior” Harper Conservative – has written to me to critique the notion of a Liberal/NDP coalition/merger/arrangement.

His/her critique is fair and well-constructed.  But what interested me wasn’t so much the substance of the analysis – it was the fact that it was offered, gratis.

I showed it to a former Ignatieff staffer yesterday afternoon.  Reaction: “The Harper guys are watching the coalition speculation because they are concerned that this might actually happen. They know it’s a threat.”

Yep.  And it’s therefore dumb to rule it out.

***

Some free political analysis and advice from a Tory…

Never assume that 1 + 1 = 2 in the world of political mergers/coalitions.

Following the merger of the CA and PC Party in 2003 the new CPC’s popular support was lower than the combined support of the two legacy parties.  In fact, the CPC’s vote share in both the 2004 and 2006 elections was lower than the combined vote share of the CA and PC Party in the 2000 election.  It wasn’t until the 2008 election that the CPC won a vote share that (approximately) equaled the 2000 CA-PC Party combined total (albeit with a very different electoral coalition).

Following the merger many former PC Party voters (Red Tories) went to the Liberals and many former Reform Party/Canadian Alliance voters went to the NDP (anti-establishment protest voters).  Similarly you should expect that a new Liberal-NDP coalition/merger/arrangement would lose the support of many “Business Liberals” as well as large numbers of current, anti-establishment NDP voters who previously voted for Preston Manning and Stockwell Day.  I also suspect that most NDP voters in QC would vote for the Bloc rather than a Liberal-NDP ticket and many radicalized, anti-establishment New Democrats in English Canada would move to the Greens.

As you can see it’s not as simple as there are “3 million” extra NDP votes on the table.  You would still need the Bloc.  (In fact you would be even more reliant on the Bloc if the new “Liberal Democrats” were less popular than the two centre-left legacy parties standing on their own).

In the end the merger gamble worked out for us.  But that doesn’t mean it will work out for you guys – particularly if there is a formalized role/process for the Bloc as there was in 2008.  And the brand legacy of Laurier, Mackenzie King, Trudeau and Chretien hangs in the balance.  Have fun.