I woke up. It was around 3 AM.

The cause: a security camera alert at my cabin, outside Bancroft. Something big.

I got up and quietly moved to the couch in another room, so as to avoid waking up E.

I looked at the camera. It wasn’t an earthquake – that was going to come about an hour or so later – it was a bear. She (I think it was a she) was sniffing around at the edge of the woods, looking utterly unafraid. I sat on the couch and watched her for a while until she disappeared.

It was shortly after that that I got the online alert from one of the reporters who had pulled the night shift.  There had indeed been an earthquake, in Midtown Toronto.

Not of the seismic kind. Another kind of earthquake: a political one. The Liberal Party of Canada, formerly the most successful political machine in Western democracy, had just gone down to defeat in an election in the riding of St. Paul’s.  The Tories had won. Narrowly, but they won.

By-elections often get dismissed by journalists and politicos as irrelevant – so often, perhaps, that voters start to believe them. So they don’t turn out. But in St. Paul’s, nearly 50 per cent of them did. For a by-election, in a riding that has been safely Liberal for three decades, that’s a big turnout. It’s a big deal.

And, while just a by-election, one that won’t change who gets to be Canada’s government, it was big, big, big. So big, it’s hard to put into words.

My friend and neighbor, author David Frum, tried. Here’s how he described the significance of the result: “This is roughly equivalent to a Republican winning a special election for a House of Representatives seat in west side Los Angeles.” My cruder take on X, having been rendered fully awake by a bear, and having predicted it could never happen: “The Trudeau Liberals are so, so f**ked.”

St. Paul’s is what political operatives like to call a “flyover” riding. As in, the leader and his or her marquee candidates don’t need to ever come there to campaign. It’s already in the bag. Nothing to worry about.

But for weeks, the Trudeau Liberals were indeed worried. They shipped staff from Ottawa to work there for the hapless Grit candidate, Leslie Church. Half of cabinet showed up to stump for her. Trudeau made clear that she was likely to be a minister when – not if – she won.

But she didn’t win. She lost.

As in any win or loss, the factors are myriad and multiple. Trudeau leads a tired old government, one that has made too many missteps on the economic front, and had too many scandals on the morality front.

But in St. Paul’s, where there is a not-insubstantial Jewish population, Trudeau’s regime alienated Jewish families who have felt isolated and ignored by their own government, while waves of antisemitism crashed all round them. If Leslie Church received a single Jewish vote, I would be astounded.  It more than accounted for the final margin.

And so, she lost. If Church is to be remembered for anything, it will be for losing one of the safest seats there is.

And  Justin Trudeau? What about him?

He has to go. He has to leave. Everyone knows it, although perhaps not him. Not yet.

St. Paul’s wasn’t just a by-election, you see. It was actually a referendum in disguise – a referendum on the most unpopular Prime Minister in more than a generation. More than anything else, it was about him.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, now resemble that big bear I saw on an early-morning security camera: unwavering, unafraid, mostly unbeatable.

Time to head off into the woods, Justin Trudeau. A big Tory bear is coming your way.

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Dear Justin:

You don’t mind if I call you Justin, do you?

Because, for starters, I don’t think many people are going to be calling you “Prime Minister” for much longer. You need to get used to it, big guy.

We were never particularly close, Justin. I was a Jean Chretien guy, which means that I believe in being socially progressive and economically conservative. You, on the other hand, have a different approach: spend like the drunkenest drunken sailor, and promote social policy favored by the Deepest Annex Intersectional Pro-Hamas Front Hole Meatless Collective. Not Liberal, in other words.

The country voted for your “vision” three times in a row, you might protest, and you’d be sort of right. But that’s because you fooled everyone. You promised to be different than you are now. You promised to bring people together, not drive them apart.

Instead, you have become what you came to Ottawa to change. You have gotten people madder than I can ever recall them being. Ever.

I’ve been talking to Chretien Liberals, Martin Liberals, every variety of Liberal, Justin. Most of them know you, many of them like you. But they all say – every single one of them – that it’s all over. You’ve been 15 to 20 points behind for more than a year. That’s not just unpopular: that’s a death sentence.

So, you have to go. And you will go, hopefully soon. Five reasons.

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There’s a truck driving around Toronto. It’s getting noticed.

You’ve seen it around, perhaps. Trucks like that are called LED advertising trucks, or digital trucks. They have big, high-definition screens on three sides.

This week, one such truck has been piloted through some of Toronto’s (typically) gridlocked streets. The panels flash these messages: “Is this Lebanon? Is this Yemen? Is this Syria? Is this Iraq?”

It then shows what appears to be Muslims praying at City Hall in Toronto. There are Palestinian flags seen, too.

The truck’s message then reads: “No. This is Canada. Wake up Canada. You are under siege.”

Cue the outrage.

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The photograph shows six young people in keffiyehs, some with their faces covered, sitting outside reading quotations from Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong.  The poster has been circulated by the McGill University chapter of Solidarity for Palestinian Human Rights (SPHR), which is a recognized club at the Montreal university.

“The Summer Youth Program,” the poster reads, “Launching 06.17.2024.”

One is holding a machine gun.  Another has a rifle.  

The poster is still on the Instagram account of SPHR McGill. When it appeared last week, it caused a firestorm, and headlines around the world.  The Jerusalem Post called it “Camp Intifada.” Britain’s The Guardian observed how the poster “featured masked guerillas.”

A federal cabinet minister, very close to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (himself a McGill alumni), issued a statement condemning the poster. “Enough is enough, this is hate speech and incitement to hate, pure and simple,” Immigration Minister Marc Miller wrote on X. “De-escalation at McGill has clearly failed. This needs to end!”

Many questions arise.  Who is SPHR, the group that is promoting the “Summer Camp?” What is the camp’s program? Who are the people in the photo on the poster? Is it legal to seemingly advertise a “camp” like that? What, if anything, are the authorities doing about it?

First off: who is Solidarity for Palestinian Human Rights (SPHR)? 

SPHR is a club recognized by the student union at McGill. It was founded more than two decades ago, and is supported by the Students’ Society of McGill University (SSMU), in the past via funds it receives from student tuition. The SSMU describe SPHR on their web site as “a student-led club that champions the Palestinian liberation struggle settler-colonialism, apartheid, and genocide based on principles of anti-colonial solidarity. We also advocate for the rights of Palestinian students in the face of racism, misinformation, harrassment [sic], and surveillance at McGill, as well as campaign for the end of the University’s complicity in the colonization of Palestine.”

But SPHR McGill – like SPHR “clubs” found at several Canadian universities, like Concordia, Western, Lethbridge, Calgary, McMaster, Queen’s and the University of Ottawa, among others –  isn’t really what it claims to be.  SPHR is really just a front for another, more openly-extremist group: Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP).

SJP is one of the most powerful anti-Israel – and antisemitic – groups in the world, with chapters at universities and colleges across Canada, the United States and overseas.  Founded at UC Berkeley in 2001, SJP has been linked to extremism and terrorism from the start.  Since the October 7 massacre by Hamas in Israel, its leadership and membership have become more and more open in their support for Hamas, for which SJP provides public relations in North America.  

In Canada, SJP/SPHR voices applauded the atrocities of that day.  At McGill, SJP/SPHR posted this online on October 8: “MONTREAL: ALL OUT FOR PALESTINE – Last night, the resistance in Gaza led a heroic attack against the occupation and has taken over 30 hostages …Their march toward liberation is as monumental as their rockets – the resistance will free the prisoners who have been facing a fascist attack by the occupation and liberate our land from the fangs of the enemy. The resistance has set a new precedent for the Palestinian struggle – our right to resist the occupation, to defend the land, and to free our prisoners are the utmost priorities. We call on our people in Montreal and in the far diaspora to celebrate the resistance’s success, to uplift their calls, and to march this Sunday Oct 8 at 2pm at Dorchester Square.”

McGill’s provost condemned the club’s celebration of the October 7 and hostage-taking, just as its president, Deep Saini, condemned the “Summer Youth Program” poster: “This is extremely alarming…It has attracted international media attention, and many in our community have understandably reached out to express grave concerns — concerns that I share.”

But, despite all the protestations, the SJP chapter calling itself SPHR remains a recognized and supported club at McGill University.

Next: what is the “Summer Camp” program?

In their explanation, rife with errors, SPHR/SJP write: “We pledge to educate the youth of montreal [sic] and redefine McGill’s ‘elite’ instutional [sic] legacy by transformining [sic] its space into one of revolutionary education. The daily schedule will include physical activity, Arabic language instruction, cultural crafts, political discussions, historical and revolutionary lessons.” The camp would be offered by students, community members and McGill faculty, SPHR/SJP say.  

The first week will focus on “the history of the Palestinian resistance.” The second, “the ongoing Nakba” – Nakba being the Arabic word for catastrophe, and what Hamas has said is the “natural extension of the Palestinian people’s right and resistance.”

Week three will be focussed on “different fronts of the movement.” The final week is about “media after October 7.” It is worth noting that the SPHR/SJP chapter at McGill called Hamas’ slaughter of 1,200 men, woman, children and babies on October 7 “heroic,” quote unquote.  The university and the student union insisted that SPHR/SJP remove “McGill” from their name after that.  But, as noted, they have allowed it to remain a recognized club – and do not disclose how much funding it has received via the university and the student union in the past.

Who, then, are the six people pictured on the poster for the camp?

The photos are members of the Fatah faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), when the PLO was considered a terrorist organization.  The photo was taken in Jordan in 1970.  The group are showing interest in Mao Zedong’s words, presumably, because the Chinese Communist party supported the PLO at that time.

Asked by the media about the image of masked gunmen advertising a “Summer Camp,” a co-ordinator of Concordia’s SPHR/SJP chapter, Zeyad Abisaab, shrugged, saying people should stop focussing on the photo. “It’s a space for people to learn. It’s an educational space,” he said of the camp.

Two final questions, then: is it legal to advertise a camp where the use of weapons is promoted? And what, if anything, are the authorities doing about it?

These questions are the easiest to answer. The only place where firearms training is legal in Canada is with accredited Canadian Firearms Safety courses, approved by the RCMP. Since 1977, no one – other than the police or the military – may possess automatic weapons, full stop.  Sentences for those convicted of possessing a light machine gun like the one in the “camp” photo range up to ten years in federal prison.

Finally, what are the authorities doing about the SPHR/SJP “Summer Camp,” with its wilful promotion of hateful words and images?

Nothing.  Nothing at all.  Camp started this week.

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