In Alberta, no elections are happening next week. People are focused on more important things — like the tragic loss of life attributed to the great flood of 2013, or the extraordinary damage that was caused by it. At times like this, no one wants to hear about politics.

But politics intrudes, just the same. Chances are weighed, assessments get made. Of such terrible events are political careers made and lost.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has represented a Calgary riding as both a Reform Party and Conservative Party MP, is not expected to campaign again until May 2015. Premier Alison Redford, elected with a comfortable majority in April 2012, need not seek the judgment of the people until spring 2016, or later. Only Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi is facing voters soon — in October of this year, possibly against arch-conservative talk radio host Dave Rutherford.

On Friday, Harper, Redford and Nenshi met the media not far from the surging Bow River. Harper and Nenshi sported identical shirts, although the Conservative leader also (oddly) wore a military flight jacket. Redford stood between Harper and a gaggle of his caucus colleagues, some of whom — like leadership aspirant Jason Kenney — had actively and energetically conspired to defeat Redford in the last provincial election. If Redford was uncomfortable showing her back to Kenney, she didn’t show it.

Instead, the three looked as politicians so often do when natural disasters strike: uncomfortable and uncertain. Worried about the people they are privileged to represent, to be sure. But also worried, just a little bit, about their own futures, too.

The Calgary Herald, however, was pleased. “Harper, Redford and Nenshi show true leadership in the flood crisis,” its Monday editorial enthused, adding – in a bit of overwrought sentimentality – that their collective leadership “is consoling and also contagious, for the sight of their strength inspires optimism and confidence.”

Really? That may come as news to someone in my former hometown, surveying raw sewage in their basement and contemplating an insurance policy (like many) that will not cover the clean-up. Nor is it likely to “inspire or console” a voter who is wondering, as he or she surveys a darkened and dirty downtown, why governments shelved a comprehensive 2006 report on how to avoid precisely what has happened in the 2013 flood — written after the last big flood, in 2005.

The Herald’s purple prose notwithstanding, the jury is still out. If relief and rebuilding efforts drag on too long — if governments do not do what Albertans expect of them — then there will be hell to pay. Political heads will roll.

Last year’s U.S. presidential election showed what can happen when politicians come together to deliver real and measurable results, post-disaster. The destruction wrought by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 likely re-elected President Barack Obama — and helped propel New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie into frontrunner status in the race to be the 2016 Republican presidential nominee.

Obama’s opponent Mitt Romney — who had earlier called for the elimination of the Federal Emergency Management Agency — paid a steep price. Conservatives and libertarians, take note: After something like Sandy hits, voters expect government to step up.

In the difficult days and weeks ahead, it remains to be seen who will step up to make Alberta whole again. Convivial press conferences on the banks of the Bow won’t cut it. For starters, Harper, Redford and Nenshi may want to dust off that shelved 2006 flood-mitigation plan.

If nothing else, their political futures may depend on it.

Comments (17)

In researching tomorrow’s Sun column, I came across a number of photographs of Alberta Premier Alison Redford, Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper touring my flooded hometown.  A question arose: why is Harper wearing a military flight jacket? Is such a thing allowed?  Was he channeling Dubya (again)?

Anyway, I remain puzzled, as usual.

UPDATE: More here.

Stephen Harper pretends he is G.I. Joe. Alison Redford attempts to remain upright. Naheed Nenshi reflects on offers of thousands of Torontonians that he become their mayor, too, but in exile.

Comments (71)

Specifically, that of (a) a nameless turtle, Chrysemys picta marginata methinks, and (b) Roxy, Canada’s best-loved political dog.  Wish I had filmed this encounter up by the cabin; it was pretty funny.  It ended with me sliding the turtle into a safe, marshy spot – and Roxy retreating, looking quite relieved.

Comments (3)

Sent this morning by my best friend (and former Hot Nasties guitarist) Pierre. Somebody time me it’s photoshopped. True?

Comments (13)

After big election upsets, like in British Columbia this year — or in Alberta last year, or federally the year before that — political people like to say knowingly, “Campaigns matter.”

Watching Rob Rae disappear down a parliamentary corridor on Wednesday — the arm of Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau draped over his shoulders — we were reminded that campaigns matter, but they aren’t everything.

Rae leaves politics after two stints as a federal member of Parliament — first as a New Democrat, then as an interim Liberal leader.

In Ontario, he was the first NDP premier in provincial history. Whatever he ran for — whatever he campaigned for — he seemed to get. (The big exception being in 2006, when both he and Michael Ignatieff lost to Stephane Dion in the Liberal leadership race. Because Dion ran a better campaign.) Rae reminds us, however, that one’s political past matters as much as one’s political campaign. Sometimes more so.

Rae, and his Liberal acolytes, never liked to hear it. But it was true, nonetheless: Rae’s past determined his political future.

He was, first and foremost, a New Democrat.

Jean Chretien, whose three majority campaigns were run by John Rae, Bob’s brother, tried many times to turn Bob Rae into a Liberal. He did not succeed. Rae was, and would remain for many years, a committed social democrat.

While that decision didn’t hurt Rae in his bid to become Ontario premier in 1990, it doomed him to failure thereafter.

During his half-decade in power, Rae presided over a government that was spectacularly inept.

For year after year, it was buffeted by scandal, economic calamity and social strife. It was arguably the worst government in Ontario’s history.

The genuine fondness many Liberals had for Bob Rae could not erase that stain on his political resume.

The disastrous 1990-1995 NDP reign indelibly marked Rae.

Privately, Rae was often enraged when reminded of this. When far from media cameras and microphones, Rae seemed to be astonished, and angry, that his NDP past had followed him into his desired Liberal future.

His advisers, too. Time and again they were told by other Liberals that Rae could never be leader because of his NDP past and his record. Try as they might, Rae’s coterie could not get the party to turn the page. They were great campaigners, but not that good.

The majority of people who enter politics do not do so to enrich themselves — Mike Duffy, Pamela Wallin and Patrick Brazeau being top-of-mind exceptions, at least with respect to their expenses — but because they are convinced they are called. They do so because they believe they have been blessed with the twin gifts of strategy and leadership.

Bob Rae was like that. Throughout his political career, he believed his talents, and his undeniable campaigning skills, should have been more than enough. He therefore made certain to turn out for all of the big contests. But the parade always went past him, and all of the medals went to Dion, Ignatieff and, now, Trudeau.

Despite all that, he will be fine. Unlike most politicians, Rae is a very good lawyer. His mediation and negotiating skills will be in demand. If he wants to be a diplomat, like his father was, Harper will not deny him the opportunity.

Liberals (and others) will seek him out for his counsel, or to appear on stages with them. The media will continue to love him, because he is fast with a quip.

But, as his political career dwindles to a close, Bob Rae stands as the embodiment of the notion that campaigns don’t matter as much as politicos believe they do.

What matters most is your record. And, in government, Rae’s was not good. It just wasn’t.

Campaigns matter? Sure.

But, mostly, in political yesterday walks political today and tomorrow.

Ask Bob Rae. He knows.

Comments (18)

It ain’t fancy, but it’s home for the next two months!

Comments (6)

…shortly, anyway. First lunching at my favourite resto on Earth, the Yang Sheng. My wake will be here. 

Had a great chat with two very impressive and highly professional Conservatives, while I was here. I won’t name them (a) to protect their careers and (b) to keep everyone guessing. 

BBQ pork and noodle in soup awaits!

Comments (7)

Anyone miss me yet?

Comments (3)

Comments (11)