Exhilarated, exhausted, exhaling. What a night.

I am so happy, I can’t tell you how happy. So, over to you smart commenters: why did Obama win? Why did Romney lose?

Open thread. Comment away!

(Here, by the way, is the back of my car.  Tells the tale. Happy, BTW, that equal marriage is the law in Maine!)

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Woooooooooooot!

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Sun News set right now – me, Monte and Adam.

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As I have written many times, opinion columns don’t matter squat.  They actually often send voters in the opposite direction from what was intended.

As I plan to discuss on Sun News Network tonight (all night), this is the only op-ed that is the exception to that rule.

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…is not, as someone once said, what you can see from the top of the CN Tower on a clear day.

There’s a bit more to it than that. A column well worth reading, and advice well worth heeding.

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Ever since the first presidential debate, has Mitt Romney been steadily gaining on Barack Obama?

Yes.

Has the Republican presidential nominee erased the Democratic president’s substantial lead?

Yes to that, too.

Has the GOP run a well-funded, focused campaign, one that has put the Democratic machine on the ropes?

Yes, yes, yes.

So, taking all of that into account — and the indisputable fact Romney and Obama are now effectively tied in national polls leading into Tuesday’s historic vote count — can Obama lose the election?

Well, actually, no. No he can’t.

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Read it here – and donate to keep the Observer doing what it does!

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Some might say it’s NSFW, but that depends on the workplace, I think.

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Right here!

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In the U.S., popular vote don’t matter so much.  Sure, the ebbs and flows of the avalanche of national polls have been plenty fun to watch.  Sure.

But Barack Obama, my guy since 2004, has been winning this thing for quite some time.

I’ll have more to say about this in my Sun column tomorrow morning – and on Sun News Network, starting tomorrow night – but the bottom line is that there is only one U.S. pundit worth paying any attention to: Nate Silver.  He’s a certfiable god-like genius, consulted for his analyses of everything from the electoral college to major league baseball.

Silver’s take, which you can fairly regard as gospel:

Based on the simulations that we ran on early Sunday evening, for example, Mr. Obama would have an 85 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if the popular vote were exactly tied nationally. This is where Mr. Obama’s Electoral College advantages, particularly in Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, would be of their maximum benefit. Given a tied national popular vote, we would expect Mr. Obama to underperform his polls slightly in these states — but since he leads by a minimum of about three points in the polling average in each one, he could underperform those numbers and still win them.

Mr. Obama would be almost certain to win the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by a percentage point or so.

Bottom line?  It’s all over, conservatives.  Thanks for coming out, and go suck an egg.

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