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— 11.05.2012 09:31 AM

In the U.S., popular vote don’t matter so much.  Sure, the ebbs and flows of the avalanche of national polls have been plenty fun to watch.  Sure.

But Barack Obama, my guy since 2004, has been winning this thing for quite some time.

I’ll have more to say about this in my Sun column tomorrow morning – and on Sun News Network, starting tomorrow night – but the bottom line is that there is only one U.S. pundit worth paying any attention to: Nate Silver.  He’s a certfiable god-like genius, consulted for his analyses of everything from the electoral college to major league baseball.

Silver’s take, which you can fairly regard as gospel:

Based on the simulations that we ran on early Sunday evening, for example, Mr. Obama would have an 85 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if the popular vote were exactly tied nationally. This is where Mr. Obama’s Electoral College advantages, particularly in Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, would be of their maximum benefit. Given a tied national popular vote, we would expect Mr. Obama to underperform his polls slightly in these states — but since he leads by a minimum of about three points in the polling average in each one, he could underperform those numbers and still win them.

Mr. Obama would be almost certain to win the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by a percentage point or so.

Bottom line?  It’s all over, conservatives.  Thanks for coming out, and go suck an egg.


Comments (34)

In Sunday’s Sun: picture this

— 11.03.2012 11:51 PM

Acts of God, the insurance industry calls them.

Acts of God are events that are beyond human control — like a big earthquake on the West coast, or a big hurricane on the East coast — and for which “no one can be held responsible,” assorted dictionaries tell us.

Except politicians, that is. Politicians, and aspiring politicians, know too well that the reverse is often true: When disaster strikes, politicians know that they can indeed be “held responsible.” If things go to hell in a handbasket — due to anything from a Hurricane Sandy to a Biblical plague of locusts — it can bring a swift end to a politician’s career.

Or, alternatively, send that politician’s fortunes soaring. It all depends. Examples abound.


Comments (6)

The Dawkins-Kinsella Thesis?

— 11.02.2012 08:28 PM

That seems a bit silly, particularly from a guy as smart as Potter. Also, I don’t proclaim my “piety.” Also, he misquotes me.

Also…never mind. Atheists slay me. They are more, um, bedeviled by religion than are the religious. They spend way more time thinking about me than I do about them, for example.

Some things are ineffable, which makes them more wonderful. The ineffable things have no place in politics, however.

Weird piece. I’ll bet he’s writing a book or something.


Comments (24)