01.26.2011 08:32 PM

Did Timmy peak too soon?

Left to right: The Ontario PC leader, and his deputy.

I’m biased, given that I (proudly) do work for the Ontario Liberal caucus.  What do you think?

(Oh, and BTW: the Post story declines to mention that we have a nearly 15 point lead over Timmy in Toronto.  Sure suggests that anyone running for him in the city is going to be shredded, doesn’t it?)


TORONTO — Ontario’s Liberal government has clawed its way back in the polls, narrowing a significant gap with the front-running Conservatives despite a raft of unpopular policies.

The Conservative lead has shrunk from nine percentage points to just three in a matter of months, according to a new poll by Ipsos Reid.

According to the survey, the provincial Progressive Conservative party is running at 38% support, down three points since November, while the Liberals are at 35%, up three points over the same period.

“We’ve got a level playing field,” said John Wright, senior vice-president with Ipsos. “We’re in for a really interesting fight that could yield a majority or minority for either side.”

Just two months ago, a raft of spending scandals and unpopular decisions — including the introduction of the HST and energy investments that spurred rising prices — appeared to be catching up to Premier Dalton McGuinty.

Mr. Wright said the Liberal gains are due to a “spirited” campaign defending their record while attacking their Conservative foes. That includes a new speech Mr. McGuinty is touring across the province, touting the government’s economic plan and claiming Ontario’s downtrodden economy has turned a corner.

The Liberals also introduced a $1.1-billion hydro-rate cut that deals with the primary concern among Ontario voters — the rising cost of living. Finally, the McGuinty government raised the spectre of former Tory premier Mike Harris, claiming current Conservative leader Tim Hudak will pursue a similar agenda of radical tax and spending cuts.

“The Liberals showed their moxie over the past couple of months,” Mr. Wright said of the gloves-off Grit strategy.


  1. Are you going on the record that on October 6, 2011 the Liberals will have held enough support to continue to govern?

    Are you convinced an actual campaign won’t have an effect?

    • Warren says:

      You slay me.

      Yeah, I’m “going on the record.” I’ll bet you a thousand bucks we’re going to win – but that would first necessitate you using your real name.

      And your second question is ridiculous. I know you aren’t that dumb.

      • Actually I could use a proxy to place the wager if I was inclined to take meet your terms.

        I will screen shot this response and look forward to reviewing the actual results with you at a later date.

        I don’t have any conflicts in the provincial race either but think the seven years of the Liberals may have reached a tipping point.

        I am curious if the Ignatieff or Dalton goes first who will be punished and if the other Liberal party will benefit.

        (Davey had Trudeau run 15 by elections lost majority of them but won the general election after wards.-TVO clip maybe?)

        • Namesake says:

          “I will screen shot this response… ”

          what, so if they _do_ lose the election, you’ll try to collect on the bet, which you have no intention of paying if YOU lose, since you weasel on whether you’re actually accepting it & refuse to make it on his terms by disclosing your actual name to him?

    • James Curran says:

      I can’t wait for the campaign. When the province finally sees that Tiny Tim has zero ability to walk and chew gum at the same time…. McD will beat him up bad in a debate format.

  2. Leon Brule says:

    I do not think “Timmy” peaked too soon. I honestly don’t believe the fall election is weighing much on peoples mind. Having said such, I think it will be a close fight and may very well lead to a minority government. However, if Ontario experiences a hot summer, the cost of running an air conditioner may be a serious problem for the Ontario Liberals.

  3. Cow says:

    Given that the Fords are already breaking promises and proving to be politics as usual, that can only be good for McGuinty (as you said during the mayoral campaign). It’ll probably be 25 points in Toronto by the election. Should be an interesting campaign..

  4. Brad says:

    Things have changed, all the people who said they would support Ford before the election were supposedly also the one’s least likely to show up and vote, seems they did show up.

      • Brad says:

        What I mean is, like Ford, Tim has a number of vocal supporters who in the past probably wouldn’t get off the couch to vote, this time they might. I heard poll after poll before the Toronto mayors election saying Ford has n percent of the vote, but a lot of those people also indicated they most likely wouldn’t go out and vote. It seems somehow Ford motivated these people to get out and vote. That could change the outcome of the provincial election. My guess the sort of people who are willing to support a party with the likes of Randy Hillier are also usually the type that don’t bother to vote.

        • J. Coates says:

          Rob Ford won an election, despite the fact the many people tried to smear him as whatever. Politics is a dirty business, period.

  5. Stefan says:

    Who’s the particularly handsome fella standing to the left of Randy?

  6. I’d agree that she is smart and telegenic and stands a good chance of winning the leadership. I would not agree that she’d make a good party leader or premier.

    Will her past haunt her? An enterprising researcher for the opposition would be able to create quite the montage of sound bites if they dug through the radio show vault. I wonder if her tapes will suddenly go missing in a Nixonesque manner?

    Christy Clark really ought to run for the Conservatives, somewhere. That party, not the Liberals, is her natural ideological home. Of course when talking about the current version of the BC Liberals we have to acknowledge they are dominated by conservative-leaning and voting folk so she will fit in, again.

    Kevin Falcon is disliked by many in B.C. because he puts a face to conservatism and few here seem to like it. Clark is not so dissimilar to Falcon. Whoever they go up against has to be considering how make that linkage stick. I don’t think it’ll be too hard.

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