02.26.2011 11:57 AM

Jesus H. Criminy

Holy Christ. I didn’t take that Abacus thing very seriously until I saw this.

Theories? Fixes? Opinions? Comments are open.

59 Comments

  1. Namesake says:

    Two very important things:

    – first, there’s the usual caveats about online panelists not really being a truly random representation of the population as a whole, despite their being matched for demographic char’s, since unlike most of who duck polls (only 15% respond), they have enlisted for them, and also get compensated, for Vision Critical’s

    – second, the Star made a major boo-boo: the field dates for this poll weren’t “between Feb. 11 and Feb. 28” [um, gee, that closing date’s 3 days FROM that this release of the results!]:

    it was from Feb. 11 to Feb 18: and the Oda Ado only really began to pick up steam towards the end of that week.

    http://www.visioncritical.com/public-opinion/5955/conservatives-expand-lead-in-canada-as-liberals-and-greens-drop/

    http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/2011.02.26_Politics_CAN.pdf

    So, it’s not good news, to be sure, but it’s still reflecting the unanswered effects of the attack ads & good-newsy EAP ads & signs, but those are temporary bumps which will be neutralized by the new In & Out elections funding shenanigans charges,

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/02/24/elections-canada-charges-conservative-party-campaign-spending.html

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/02/25/pol-vp-reid.html

    and the embarrassing SNAFU on sending a Canadian-chartered rescue plane In & Out of Libya without any Canadians on board.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/americas/26canada.html

  2. Kephalos says:

    The Abacus thingee looks phony to me, since the respondents are from: “The online survey involved 6,442 Canadian adults who are Angus Reid panellists.”

    I suss the Sorcerer’s Apprentices are working overtime to stifle criticism inside the party of the Prime Mastermind. While we’re on that topic, the second and first most evil influences on Canadian democracy are, in second place, the Prime Mastermind; and, in first place, the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada who have done nothing to check or balance the curse of the Prime Mastermind.

  3. Kephalos says:

    By the way, Jesus is not happy to be named in your pieces.

  4. Ted Clarke says:

    I was in shock until I saw the full results – those most likely to vote Conservative
    are uneducated males – the higher the education the more likely to vote Liberal.
    That goes with something I saw earlier about the education level of MP’s.

  5. Nuna D. Above says:

    “Who needs Quebec?” said the Liberals as they rallied around an anti-Meech politician at their leadership convention. “Who needs Atlantic Canada?” said the Liberals as they slashed UI benefits in their budget. “Who needs the West?” said the Liberals as they imposed a useless gun registry and attacked Alberta. As it turns out, who needs the Liberals?
    Imagine how much worse it would be for the Liberals if the Conservatives were better at getting their message out, or if they had a personable leader. Imagine how much worse it’s going to be for the Liberals when new seats are added to the growing provinces and the system isn’t gerry-mandered to favour the Liberals.

    • Emilie says:

      I always say that whoever voted for the present “conservatives” deserve what they are getting from Harper. Wasted tax $$$, lies and more lies………….. overspending, police state during G20, tax $$$ wasted on unreported crimes so more prisons can be built, tax $$$$ wasted on fighter jets that the USA doesn’t want………….. can it get any worse? Just watch the Canadian unfriendly dictator!

    • nic coivert says:

      The Conservatives have positive things to say?

      One thing for sure is they have really lowered the bar on both peoples expectations from government and on the integrity of governance. As anecdotal evidence we have Nuna D. Above flinging vitriol across the country and then praying and preying he gets his wish to manipulate and distort democracy even further.

      Wait until Harper begins Gerry Mandering the system Nuna D. Above says.

      You see that’s the problem with the CPC and its core, they can’t help crowing before the chicken lays the egg.

      Oh I bet Canadians just can’t wait for a Gerry Mandered Conservative Hegemony.

      Thanks for this, I’ll use it.

    • canadiansense says:

      Laurier Liberals surged in QC by splitting conscription issue. It was a Conservative wasteland until BM. The decision to deploy the Army in QC-Ottawa did not help them either. Framing Reform as anti-QC worked until parties in the right united and offered a better plan to voters in QC.

      The West has been a wasteland for Liberals for decades. They did give PET one shot, they have never looked back. Ontario is the key, it gave the LPC their last majority with 100 seats in 2000. At present based on 4/5 pollsters they stand to fall below their worst showing since confederation. Dion will be vindicated.

      (Just my theory)

      Ignatieff=Turner.

  6. James Curran says:

    Maybe the Liberals should send their leader on a bus tour to talk about families and keep letting Bob Rae lead the party jihadis in Ottawa and on TV.

    What’s that? Oh. They’re already doing that? … never mind. Carry on

  7. TDotRome says:

    I continue to think that polls are ridiculous. But! This continues to highlight the fact that until the Grits and Dippers get together, the Tories will continue to sneak up the middle.

    And, it doesn’t have to be anything big! Just a handshake agreement to not fight each other in certain ridings. So what if you make a coalition after the election! It’s always better to work from the position of power……….that’s why Harper prorogues……..he may look like a cowardly douche, but he’s a cowardly douche living at 22 Sussex.

  8. billg says:

    On a more important note…did Jesus ask you to re-name your band?

  9. canadiansense says:

    Who believes after seven years of Dalton Liberals they would think voting for a Federal Liberal makes sense?

    The Rob Ford success against the full court press by the MSM and the left?

    Is it possible the talking points and the fear mongering for the last few years have lost their cachet to a simple message. Less government, government is the problem.

    What politicians and parties are talking about locking up criminals and lowering taxes?

    • hugger says:

      “What politicians and parties are talking about locking up criminals and lowering taxes?”

      Another fine example of Neo Con economic acumen. One costs more, the other takes away the ability to pay for it.

      That thing from the Bible about Give unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s and unto God that which is his, had a certain assumption attached methinks. That being Caesar had a clue what he was doing.

  10. Jesus says:

    WK, seems to me this data is saying a merger with the NDP is not the answer some would expect it to be. Reminds me of a saying, “marry in haste, repent at leasure” — The NDP seems to be a lame horse, and to saddle it would take us no where.

  11. Emilie says:

    Nice that you are calling the tax payers money spent on promoting the government as CPC ads………. Ever wonder what the difference is between government and CPC ads? And do you like paying for ads to promote Harper?

  12. Namesake says:

    Looking at those gender numbers (graphic from the main Star v. here: http://urlm.in/hdiv ) it occurs to me that one way to try to close that 20 gap with the males…

    …and push back against the deliberate CONservative wrecking ball framing of the Lib. leaders as wimps that Susan Delacourt wrote about the other day

    http://thestar.blogs.com/politics/2011/02/wrecking-cousins-part-5.html

    …is to cut an ad showing ACTUAL footage of Ignatieff in some very hairy situations in his days as a war correspondent in Kosovo and other places, to play up that very real side of him as a “Scud Stud” type (that’s Peter Kent’s brother, for you younger folk), that he’s been far too modest or otherwise reticent to draw attention to, so far.

    Sure, there are brave female war correspondents, too, but for most of us who do nothing more courageous than ignore a barking dog or brush briskly by a panhandler, we’d got to begrudgingly concede, he’s not just some namby-pamby book worm or pencil pusher.

    Unlike Stephen Harper…. who’s not only never done anything physically brave in his life that I know of, but who’s also ramped-up the security detail for his own protection exponentially, such that it’s now costing us about $25-M a year just to keep him & his family safe — almost 70 times as much as protecting his entire cabinet and other VIPs.

    http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2011/02/16/17301871.html

  13. Steve T says:

    The Oda thing hasn’t got traction because the Libs are only mentioning it in Parliament, and relying on the media to hammer it. As someone else on this thread mentioned, why don’t the Libs pry open their wallets and run some ads? Target the Oda matter, and push the envelope. Ask things like “Was Oda lying?”, to avoid libel claims. The message will still get across.

    The corporate tax cut is a red herring, as is the F35 matter, on the average Canadian. The Libs are wasting their time on these. As you know, I am a small-C conservative. Want to convert people like me? Focus on issues of integrity. The Oda matter is one such issue.

    • hugger says:

      I think you have that backward. Not that the Oda issue doesn’t have significance, but economic concerns are of more interest to most people as so many are already conditioned to, and now desensitized to political wrongdoing. Sad but true. On the other issues, the CPC are not defending the merits of the Corporate tax cuts with hard numbers and the issue can and should be framed as one of people concerns as opposed to the interests of those who are driving the middle class closer and closer to a poverty like existence. I challenge CPC supporters to provide evidence to dispute that.

      Even bigger is the F35 issue which I say is clearly a defining issue for this Government. It has all the elements and it so easy to target and to explain to average people.

      It exemplifies all the things wrong with this Government. The lies, deceit, improper costing, unwillingness to release financial data, stonewalling, irresponsibility, misappropriation, patronage opportunities, disregard for past established and accepted practices, and conveyance of an arrogance far beyond any acumen they have displayed to date.

      Instead of hammering this issue at every opportunity, Ignatieff says he likes that too. Then says something about being ready to lead and yes, yes, yes… Sorry, I have already forgotten what all the yeses were about. The last time I heard that many yeses all at once, I was much younger and far more virile. My memory was better then too.

      I saw a couple of good ideas just on this thread, (ie correspondent in kosovo), and wondered why I have to come here to see those things? Why the LPC seemingly haven’t thought of them? I am still wondering why they didn’t listen when I told them the Green shift policy was going to be a disaster, but what do I know?

      Btw, I have the utmost respect for the lads who served in Bosnia and Kosovo. Louise Arbor too.

      End of mini manifesto. Could go on, but promised myself I would try not to rant tonight. lol

  14. Dan says:

    Polls are depressing as hell, and obviously the massive ad push has been effective to a degree, but lets not forget that even this poll result is almost exactly the same result as the last election.

    The biggest message here is Liberals have to get their fundraising in order!

  15. michael hale says:

    People are tired. they want a respite from the constant electioneering. so, they look around, they find the one that is the least offensive and they park a vote. And a “parked” vote is almost impossible to move during an election, because once it’s parked, they stop paying attention.

    That Harper is less offensive than Iggy says so much.

  16. Raymond says:

    Fixes?
    Well, in all honesty, I’m not entirely sure HOW to bring the CPC up another 2-3 points…

  17. Chris. P says:

    1. Understand that Mr. Harper is ruthless, power hunger and is not playing in the high school debate club – it’s war.
    2. Understand that election campaigning is just as important in the middle of elections as it is during the election itself. The ads are taking their toll and until the Liberals respond in-kind going after Harper directly this will continue to be the result.
    3. Crank up the rhetoric.
    4. Get ‘fire in the belly’ and fight for those things that the party deems important – Everything from media releases, to emails to party members are bland, unimaginative and stir up no emotions or anger.
    5. Go Negative – sadly it works.
    6. Get Jean Chretien and Paul Martin to reconcile and get back involved – This is beyond the part and egos themselves it’s about the country.
    7. Warren must get re-engaged at the Federal level – Too many bright people are sitting on the sidelines.

  18. Rae-Lynn says:

    I was one of the respondents of said angus reid survey and I can tell you a couple of things. Firstly, to become an Angus Reid Panelist you must answer an extensive round of questions that specifically ask you about your voting history and your political leanings. Also this survey was by invitation to Angus Reid Panelists and although I have been a member for over a year this is the first time I have ever been invited to participate. My question as such would be, how do we know that these invitations were sent randomly as I can tell you they had enough info about my voting intentions to know how I would answer the questions on this survey. Food for thought I guess as a person living in the 905 I just do not get the feeling that there is an overwhelming swell of support for the conservatives. It makes me wonder about how skewed the results are by the fact that they have a great deal of information about potential respondents before they “invite” you to participate in the survey.

  19. jStanton says:

    Ok, I’ll play.

    The latest poll circle-jerk doesn’t impress me any more than yesterdays… or last weeks, or the one the week before that. They all say the same thing: he might win a majority, or he might not. I wish I got paid for bullshit like that too.

    But let’s play what-if. What if the odious and creepy Mr. Harper won a majority. (Notice that whether or not he wins or loses is not even discussed; its widely assumed that Mr. Ignatieff and his organization cannot win even a minority government). What would Mr. Harper do that he hasn’t tried or begun to do already? Would he try to subvert the Charter or the law? Can he do so, or are there sufficient checks and balances in place to prevent this happening?

    If, on the other hand, his “hidden agenda” is one that uses accepted parliamentary and government processes to be realized, then the house gets a chance to say their piece and challenge him, and if they are unsuccessful, then voters get to judge him at the next election.

    Frankly, I don’t he has any more fire in his belly. Oh, he might act rashly for spite, or to reward his water carriers, but I suspect that the repressed suburban chip-on-the-shoulder destroy the fun-loving lefty revolution that he dreamed of in his youth is no longer driving him. I think we are passed that. He’s now thinking those “legacy” thoughts, which means that he might even clean up the mess that’s been made over the last ten years, begun by Mr. Martin’s sycophants, and continued by his own light-weights.

    Importantly, we get out of this rut. The LPC does a complete make-over, and a credible package is presented to the electorate. After Mr. Harper’s retirement, since he prevented the ascension of any conservative personalities, the party self-destructs and is rendered impotent for at least 2 terms.

    I just don’t see any down-side worse than what we already have.

    • Rae-Lynn says:

      It is disheartening that you do not see a downside to a majority government under Stephen Harper. Mostly I suppose because I do not want to live in a country that stands for the things that this government’s policy and decisions have made us stand for. I have always been a fiercly proud canadian and, while I still am, I fear for where we are headed if we do not take a long hard look at the implications of the decisions being made by this government. I find it sad that as a society we are not willing to look beyond our individual lives and look at the greater good of our society both within Canada and in the world as a whole. Comments like “what is the worst thing that can happen” make me despair that we have lost our empathy for people less fortunate than us who count on our government and the will of a compassionate society to ensure that government does what is in the best interest of the people it goverrns no matter who they voted for. Naive I suppose but if we all give up on having a government who will do the right thing then we deserve what we get.

      • jStanton says:

        … my point is that he has had years and free reign to do whatever he likes, yet he has not done anything drastic enough that the opposition parties have felt driven enough to actually oppose him. And now, he has run out of gas, and I’ll bet that a comfortable retirement is more important to him than “changing the world”.

  20. Rae-Lynn says:

    I do not think there is anything hidden about the agenda of the CPC. The point I was making was that I and 61% of the population of this country (assuming the results of this latest poll are correct) do not agree with this government. No one said that if this government continues that Canada will become “uninhabitable.” What I DID say though was that I was disheartened by the fact that we are living under a government that honestly feels that the best interests of Canadians are being served by the decisions that it is making even though a majority of Canadians do not agree. I am disheartened by the fact that this government seems to see compromise and give and take as a weakness rather than as a strength that has made us the great nation that we are. I am disheartened by a government that has mistaken apathy for support. I am mostly disheartened by the lack of engagement among out citizens in a process that they no longer feel any connection to. That Gord is what bothers me about this government and it’s policies. And just so you know i went to the web site and read the policy platform and sorry Gord, while there are elements in some I can agree with, I do not and will not agree with the overall direction that the CPC wants to take this country and, at the risk of repeating myself, even if the CPC is within striking distance of the mythical majority they have always pined for it still does not negate the fact that 60% of this country will still not agree with the direction in which they want to take us.

  21. Sean says:

    Resignation needs to be openly discussed as a serious option.

    1. Canadians will never believe that he is a Canadian. No amount of pleading and begging will ever change this. Heads up Liberals, this is the ONLY ballot box issue. This isn’t fair, nor is it right, but it is the reality of the situation.

    2. The Liberal Party has never and will never accept him as the leader. This is why we have regular shows of defiance and general chaos in the caucus.

    3. There needs to be some articulation of exactly what the Liberal Party would lose if he were to step down immediately. “No one else can do it” is bull shit and doesn’t cut it anymore. Is it even plausible that ANY member of the current caucus could possibly do worse than this? No it isn’t. What does “day one” after a resignation look like? Better than 23%.

    4. If the OLO / Leader really think they have the support of the Party, they should advocate holding a Leadership Review at the June Biennial. It is not mandatory this time around, but it would be a show of good faith. They won’t, because they have no good faith and they all know damn well it would be a massacre.

    • JenS says:

      I tend to agree. I, personally, don’t entirely dislike the current leader, but he’s not gaining any traction with Canadians. The average Canadian simply can’t relate, or at least has been led to believe they will never be able to relate, to him. Whether it’s right or not, that’s the reality and the party must deal with it, or get used to the idea if an election that plays out the way this poll says.

  22. Ted Clarke says:

    Well it is interesting to be associated with the elites
    If that means those who are able to think for themselves I am grateful
    Anyone who has a functioning brain and votes for harper has to be in a coma
    Just like those who thinks Ford is the answer to something
    I am not sure what the question is but he cannot surely be the answer

    What is wrong with having a brain and using it – over 20 years ago Reagan pursued his policies and at the time several of us said – well that ought to guarantee the rich getting richer. Boy, do I feel like a prophet now. Same with Harper, you follow his logic and we sill soon all be Naziis.

    Well that may be a little extreme but it is the same stupid philosophy
    He worries about prisons – does he mention how many indiginous people are there because
    of the law and order policies????? Most of them, if they were white, would not be there at all
    and then there would be lots of room for the rest of those he wants to jail.

    Let’s face it – our society is not perfect – but Harper is not the answer – he only muddies the waters.
    And if that makes me an elite – well, thanks for the compliment.

  23. Michael Reintjes says:

    “Same with Harper, you follow his logic and we sill soon all be Naziis.”
    Priceless….You started out strong with the whole brain thing and then drop this moronic blast.
    Try using that huge brain of yours and examine how your hyperbole could be taken seriously by anyone with a history book…Jesus Christ Dude.

  24. Matt says:

    Michael Reintjes:

    Wow. Excellent display of Godwins law which states, “as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.”

    The corollary that you lose the arguement and the thread should close should be in effect.

  25. Matt says:

    I meant Ted. Not Michael

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