03.24.2011 04:55 PM

Ipsos bombshell

Look, I’m sorry, but pushing for an election now is just plain dumb.

Unless you’re a Conservative, of course.


  1. Derek Pearce says:

    Meh, that’s neither here nor there by the end of the campaign. People have a million more issues to examine before they think back to “who caused” the election in the first place.

  2. Al in Cranbroook says:

    Did I earlier suggest opposition MPs might be choking down large amounts of Gravol for lunch today?

    I’d like to update that with, “and passing out barf bags ahead of dinner tonight!”

  3. Robin says:

    Iggy is no JC, but aren’t these numbers close to those going into the election in 1993?

      • Cath says:

        Are you a bit concerned that Dwight Duncan came out and said that he’d be campaigning with Ignatieff?

      • The Doctor says:

        In any event, Robin, talk about comparing apples and oranges — need we remind you that there was this, umm, Tory-Reform split in 1993 (a.k.a., God’s Early Christmas Gift to the LPC)?

    • David says:

      The polling numbers are not even close. Look at the link in 1993 polls all had the Liberals in a slim lead or tied at the start of the wit period not at the differences of today. I have heard a lot about this election being like 1993 but I am not at all buying it. The Tories were deeply wounded by PM Mulroney’s troubles and the right was fractured by a PC Reform split. Today you have the CPCs with a rock solid 33% give or take and a fractured left of centre, it is I suppose like 93but perhaps now with the LPC looking as they could suffer the fate of the 1993 PCs. I would hope not because the country needs two strong parties but the LPC is not one again yet.


    • Philip says:

      I just have a question for everyone about the math of this poll. so, Cons 43, Libs 24 NDP 16, Bloc 10, green 6 undecided 8%. when I add these numbers up I get 107%??? how exactly does that happen? Any ideas?

      • Curtis Brown says:

        The numbers reported for each party are of decided voters only, with the undecideds netted out before calculating the percentage. Out of the overall sample, eight percent are undecided. You don’t add that number to the numbers reported for each party.

      • Namesake says:

        Like many such polls. they probably excluded the 8% undecided when calculating the other percentages for the decided — which add up to 99% for the whole numbers, and so likely would be 100% if decimals had been reported.

        That said, Bricker’s Ispos’ online panel political polls aren’t worth a fig.

    • James Curran says:

      you know. you’re just really getting on my nerves now. you remind me of observant these days.

  4. james curran says:

    Ok. Look. I am willing to offer big bucks for anyone scalpong tickets in the cheap seats!

  5. Dude Love says:

    Maybe the opposition parties know they will lose the election for the soul purpose of initiating some house cleaning.

  6. john says:

    But wasn’t there another poll out just days ago that only had a 6point difference? Could there have been that much of a swing in that short of a time? I can’t believe that 43% of Canadians would want Harper again. I don’t get it.

    • Ashia says:

      That’s because you assume that most Canadians hate Harper as much as you do.

      • intrep says:

        EXACTLY!!! The left assumes the majority of the world sees things the way they do and they don’t understand any other perspective. The upcoming CPC majority win will cause great consternation amongst those who can’t understand why the rest of the world doesn’t agree with them.

  7. Phil says:

    Let ’em have at it, Warren. The Libs have so many problems to workout, they could use the 4 years to re-build. Seriously, an obvious upcoming Conservative majority will do the Libs good, in due time.

    • eattv says:

      I agree on this. A good drubbing might be exactly what they (and we) need. It may be a long term no lose for Canadians, even if the LPC goes down…

  8. Dan F says:

    Ipsos always has us 3-4 points lower then any other pollster. Also small sample size with no indication of regional samples.

    Nobody should be freaking out over one poll, campaign hasn’t even started yet.

    And as a wise old political hack once told me, campaigns matter.

  9. Bruce says:

    Two things:

    1) Are you seriously suggesting that they all back off *now*, at this late hour, and somehow scuttle tomorrow’s vote? Would that not be a complete, total, ridiculous, amateurish, farce of a disaster?

    2) You’re being pretty selective in the polls you highlight. Harris-Decima is showing only a 6-point spread, quite a contrast from this 19-point spread. I’m not saying the latter is the ‘true’ poll, but it all seems to suggest that the polls are all over the place, and that we shouldn’t get all freaked out because of one poll. I think a really smart guy once had a term for those of us who freak out in this way… nervous nellies? I also recall that this same really smart guy – a strategic genius, I’m sure you’d agree – said the other day that Iggy could win, and that this contempt / ethics stuff is kinda sorta important. Just sayin’.

    • intrep says:

      “…….get all freaked out because of one poll.”

      Dude, you obviously haven’t been paying attention to the line-up of polls over the past two months. This poll is simply another confirmation of the CPC trending.

      • intrep says:

        Here is what Warren says about Ipsos:

        “Ipsos has long been regarded as the gold standard in the Canadian polling industry. My political consulting firm uses them and so do plenty of others,….”

  10. Polls don’t really matter, campaigns do. This should be expected a few more bad polls. Canadians won’t punish the Liberals or reject Ignatieff. It was Dion and the Green Shift right?

    This poll will do wonders for the spirit for the grassroots. They will tighten up when the parties hit the airwaves with the massive media buys.

    It will be interesting if a few opposition MPs that don’t qualify for the pension call in sick tomorrow.

  11. Kephalos says:

    Ha! Ha! Ha! Those numbers are as phony as a Canadian $2 bill. The poll was bot — plain and simple. But I hope the deception works to keep Harper in power until…

    Ah… you know how to finish that last idea, eh?

  12. Harvey Martin says:

    I am so sick of Bricker and his low-sample, high-spin polls. Has Ipsos been even close to correct in the past five elections? Don’t they consistently overstate Tory support? Are they intended to inform, or to spin? has anybody ever seen Bricker in a war room, except for the free doughnuts?

    Let me know when Ekos, Harris-Decima and Nanos show up with their numbers.

  13. DL says:

    I get the feeling from other tidbits in the Ipsos poll that it was a bit of a set-up. Sounds like they asked questions about whether or not the opposition parties should pass the budget and whether or not they should force an election etc…that plus the fact that it’s also a snapshot at a point in time when the average person is probably wondering why we’re having an election over a seemingly anodyne budget.

    Ipsos has along history of overestimating Tory support. In the 2006 election they had them 15% ahead three days before the election – the margin ended up being 6%

  14. fritz says:

    Well that’s it then. There’s a poll out showing the Tories up big time. I guess it’s all over and we don’t need to campaign or vote. Lets just make Harper dictator and live on whatever crumbs he and his regime deem we deserve.
    We are watching people in the Middle East rise up every day against one party rule and yet a poll sends us cowering and predicting eminent rout.
    I say let’s wait a few weeks before we concede total defeat and at least try and overthrow the elected despot we’ve been suffering under for the last six years.
    End of rant. 😉

  15. sun says:

    The question is public majority will and thier interest
    Is that right that anybody take a power and
    ingnore recommandation and request of miniority or vice versa

    this is not black and white or YES or NO

    each bit by bit of detail of budget need to review and

    other people has right too

    being bully and or being always fight

    is only bring Canada face down

    soon political party has three choices

    each get a land of Canda and like old kingdom fight for their right in each province
    land stealing I think Israel was last in the list by bring conspiracy among people
    not work


    each political party watch and act like CIA – Pentagon with method of pentagon force change
    and then cia come more freindly but gather more info again pentagon come and force changes and again CIA come and do review and gather info and like democrate-republican do
    being jelous arab king has money and they are bankrupt to seize tehir money and take control of power two faces loos trust among people

    or act like mafia way that get the capitalism and money on table and if some one not give them money then ask mafia or authority to force give them money l ike YEn is high and US currency is down no problme we can drill more and made up earthquak then Yen will go down and US currency will go up no big deal then bring treat and harrass people

    or all three above to made country reduce debt and

  16. Ron says:

    Canada AM poll this morning had 66% of respondents voting Conservative. I agree with what Warren said earlier this month…this is wipeout territory.

    As long as Harper does not put his foot in his mouth like he did the last two elections it’s looking more and more like a majority.

    Spoke to about 10 different people today and all of them said the same thing, I don’t want an election..and these guys vote Liberal!!!

    • Scott Tribe says:

      Right.. and you believe that poll? An online one? Give me a break.

      Harris-Decima had a 6 point gap.. Ekos was around 7. Nanos was 11.. but that was decreasing from its prior poll and Nanos said it showed signs of danger for the Tories. . None of those polls get publicized… and now Oopsos-Reid – the guys who always seem to have the Cons higher then any other pollsters when sampling – published a massive lead, and it’s suddenly the only one that’s accurate?

  17. bigcitylib says:

    The die is cast. Victory or Valhalla.

    • Philip says:

      Exactly. I’m not sure I get the purpose of highlighting this poll now. All parties are going and we shall all see what the Canadian voter thinks. It is really not as if the non-confidence motion won’t tabled.

  18. CdnPolitico says:

    Come on Warren… here are some polls from 1993…:

    Environics Sept 9,93: #PC 34 #LPC 33 #REF 11 #NDP ? MOE 2.6 … final seat count? LPC 177 BQ 54 REF 52 NDP 43 PC 2

    Gallup poll, August 1993, approval/disapproval: Kim Campbell 51/22, Jean Chretien 37/36

    And, more recently, wasn’t it Ipsos that called the Toronto Mayoralty race “too close to call” in October? Ask Mayor Smitherman how that turned out.

  19. Did my post get deleted by mistake earlier?

  20. Robert McClelland says:

    Ever since Ipsos cooked their coalition poll 2 years ago they’re not worth paying attention to. That’s the one where they actually used the phrase, …“unholy deal” with the Bloc… in their poll question.

  21. Al in Cranbroook says:

    Interesting quote from Bricker…

    Bricker said the Liberals now find themselves in a “dangerous” position.

    “The difficulty for the Liberals right now is that they seem to be losing the ‘Paul Martin Liberals’ to the Tories and the question is whether or not they’ll start losing the progressive vote over to the NDP. They’re really caught in a squeeze play here.”

    This plays into the optics of the likes of Manley and McKenna clearly being at odds with the LPC’s position on corporate taxes. People such as these are representative to a great many voters of what the Liberal Party has always been about. More to the point, their very moderate (meaning centrist) approaches to the economy and/or public policy in general contrast rather starkly with what Iggy et al have made themselves all about since Martin’s defeat.

    I’ve been around long enough to know that one poll of this kind right out of the gate does not an election rout make.

    But I think it’s relevant to mention that the “conservative” side of the spectrum had to go through, metaphorically speaking, a near death experience in order to rediscover what “conservatism” really is all about, which in turn led to rebirth of the party…as painful and prolonged as that took to get through. In the end it brought balance back into Canadian politics, where once upon a time all political options federally were clearly for the most part leaning to left of center.

    I still think the LPC shows every sign of needing to go through the same painful, yet potentially and ultimately productive, process.

    Too many just still do not get it yet! So use to having everything their way as if by some sort of divine right, they refuse to accept and deal with in-their-face realities.

    Had to get that off my chest.

    • Al, I agree with your ‘death and renewal’ thesis, if you’ll accept my cheesy label. I hope the cards don’t fall that way, but if they do, here’s hoping that the LPC power brokers finally get the message that voters need more than slogans. The slogan (forgive my butchery here), “Harper is scary, so vote for us” has really run out of gas. Ignatieff and Rae have to say more than “We’re against the F-35 deal”. They have to tell us what they would do instead. They have to say more than “Spending money to build more prisons won’t reduce crime”. They have to tell voters what they plan to do to reduce crime (even as crime rates continue to fall). Political campaigns are not poker games. You have to show your cards to the voters then let them decide. We know what Harper will do if re-elected. On the very eve of this forthcoming campaign we still don’t know what the LPC will do, beyond a bucket of full of platitudes and not buying the F-35’s. Time for Liberals to stand up and show their hand.

      • Eric says:

        Great post, Mr Templeman

      • Al in Cranbroook says:

        Here’s the thing about all this…

        Who are the LPC’s John Manleys, Frank McKennas, or even Paul Martins today? (And I say that knowing that Martin was probably the most inept leader they ever had, and IMHO highly overrated as a Finance Minister.)

        Just exactly who within the LPC are those with whom business people and corporate Canada can find common ground, that sense of interest and know how to which they can relate??? Who makes the leaders of Canadian industry feel comfortable about their future under a Liberal government???

        For every left leaning Sheila Copps, there was also an offsetting balance provided by such personages.

        Instead, today the “face” of the LPC is represented by the likes of McGuinty, Holland, and Goodale…all of whom come across as ever increasingly angry people, spouting off unbelievably vitriolic and seething rhetoric full of wild hyperbole and absolutely wild accusations.

        And led by, in just about every definition of the word, an elitist. And no less one who hasn’t even been in the country for most of the last four incredibly formative decades in Canadian history. A leader who even managed to bypass his own party’s democratic election as leader.

        More telling yet, the man most likely to succeed him following his likely crash and burn in this election is, not a centrist Liberal of long standing tradition, but a former NDP (meaning socialist) premier who most notable accomplishment is taking Ontario to the brink of financial ruin!

        I don’t doubt for a moment that prospect gives Canada’s business leaders a collective case of dry heaves just thinking about it.

        Across political forums and blogs, I assure you it’s not Conservatives who are an angry bunch. No, that role has now been assumed, and with a great deal of unabashed zeal, by Liberals and Dippers. Hell, you could just about the shuffle the deck between your average “comments” section following any political article on a CBC website, and the forum at Rabble.ca, and by far for the most part you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference!

        Voters notice this stuff…too often despite their best efforts to avoid and/or ignore it!

        Harper’s biggest success has been not nearly so much dragging the CPC to the center, but brilliantly shifting the center to the CPC.

        And frankly, the LPC, by flailing around in the political wilderness hunting for their lost identity, not to mention soft NDP/left wing votes, has ceded the center to him with barely a whimper.

        The PCs blew themselves to hell because Red Tories didn’t have the time of day for actual “conservatives”, and bust their asses to relegate them to the margins of both the party and federal politics.

        Any differences between this and the division between the Martin and Chretien camps is, for all intents and purposes, mostly shades of pale.

        Sorry, but the vast majority of Canadians are not left wing…any more than they are right wing.

        Harper learned his lessons well, for most Canadians are centrist, but more importantly, pragmatic.

        And most of the successful leaders in this country, save for very rare exceptions (and I can’t think of one) have always been first and foremost, pragmatists.

        • Wayne says:

          Post of the year.

        • Al, I don’t like your message, and I wish I could prove you wrong. But I can’t because you are absolutely correct. I think your sentence….

          “Harper’s biggest success has been not nearly so much dragging the CPC to the center, but brilliantly shifting the center to the CPC.”

          …should appear in history books when they come to the election of 2011. Well done. Post of the Year indeed!

        • The Doctor says:

          I agree with you that, at least based on what I see on the comment boards of blogs, and in the house of commons, yes, the really angry people these days seem to be hard-core supporters of the LPC. I know they think their anger is righteous and justified, but it reminds me of something Paul Wells once said: angry people don’t win arguments. A lot of the anti-George Bush Jr. crowd had the same disposition, and they lost two elections in a row to him.

    • hugger says:

      What a load of malarkey. People from New Brunswick know what McKenna was about, and is about. He sold us out to the local Feudal Lords long ago, and profited handsomely. People here, and especially in McKenna’s home region are suffering under Harpers economic policies, especially his monetary policy, and you have no clue of what all of that is about. Apparently.

      I suggest Sir, that you are no more than yet another con philosophical mouth piece.

  22. Wayne says:

    Isn’t there a less expensive way for the libs to replace their leader. $300 mil is a bit much, no? Give us taxpayers a break!

    • JStanton says:

      Oh please… whatever the figure, it just goes into the pockets of Canadians, and then back to the government in taxes.

      It’s not the same as the $300 million Mr. Harper spends monthly to wage his war in Afghanistan, or the billions of dollars he has given to foreign weapons systems manufacturers, or the billions Canada has lost due to his mismanagement.

      If it costs $300 million to remove him, it’s a good deal – even at twice the price. We can’t afford this shallow megalomaniac one minute longer.

      • Namesake says:

        This is yet more evidence of the CPC’s innumeracy &/or propensity to mislead all & sundry:

        it’s illegitimate to count the whole cost of the election as being ‘wasted’ for going early, as though that same money wasn’t going to have to be spent in 18 months or so, anyway.

        2.5 of the 4 year mandate has already expired, so, like an ill- used car, the cost of replacing it early has to be pro-rated, against its use to date…

        so, let’s split the difference on the $300 to $400-M cost of an election (depending on who’s talking) as $350…

        so we’ve already got $218.75-M worth of that at this stage (2.5/4 ways into the end of the extended lease): so, at best, only $131.25-M is being wasted by going early.

        which is just a fraction of the extra $3-B in last-minute pork the CPC showered on ridings over the past few weeks



        …and just a tenth of what Harper blew on the vainglorious G20 summit which accomplished nothing but traumatizing thousands and hurting Toronto businesses.

  23. reformatory says:

    Polls SMOLES…. Warren- you need to adopt the “coljons” of JC. You have enough experience to know that campaigns matter more than pools. Even your former boss declared publicly “don’t be afraid”. I say… call him up and ask him to be an advisor for $1, and since he is itching to get back in the ring.. use his experience to help out. Harper has not been perfect.. he is vulnerable… he is mistake prone…. the economy based on his track record is not his strength as some believe. Use you talents to get on air and start spinning. The Liberal PArty has tons of talent to reverse this. They need to get the coalition monkey off their back.. find some credible blue Liberals from the Martin school to speak on behalf of the economy. Allow Canadians to see and picture who the Lib. finance Minister would be.. so we can siphon Red Tory voters.. just like Paul MArtin did for JC and keep pounding the ethics issue, the democratic deficit issue, the International agenda that plays better to Liberal strength and things can start to look up. Look Canadians don’t like Harper.. we need to bring them on board.

  24. Rich says:

    I would be interested in views on the impact if Mr. Ignatieff backed away from the confidence measure.

  25. Art Williams says:

    Get your heads out of the sand Liberals. Thirteen, twelve or ten points behind, nobody wants to go into an election that far behind. Having said that and as Warren will often say, “campaigns matter”.

  26. reformatory says:

    if you’re really a concerned taxpayer- then you’d be livid ay the amount of taxpayer money “Steve” spent on reckless ads, and other bits of propaganda. Why are you not complaining about that? As a taxpayer- I can tell you .. I would like to get back to the days of prudent public management.. as delivered by Canada’s last majority govt. JC and co.

    • The Other Jim says:


      This is a great talking point and I hope that people raise it every time someone tries to blame the opposition for a “costly” election. Democracy comes at a price, and the Harper Government ™ has done nothing to suggest that they are remotely conservative with taxpayer’s dollars in terms of partisan efforts.

      • Northbaytrapper says:

        Did they not need to spend more faster to offset the recession at the threat of having their government toppled at the hands of the Liberals and their coterie?

  27. dave says:

    Conservative majority and a Bloc opposition…be the best thing that has happened for the sovereignty people.

  28. bc says:

    Despite what this poll is suggesting, there will be no CPC majority.

    In all likelihood we will see little to no movement. Which makes this contrived election push especially stupid.

    Yes, we get it Iggy. You and the Liberals hate the Conservatives.

    • Northbaytrapper says:

      I have a feeling that Iggy wants to find out if he’s going to be PM or not sooner rather than later, so that he can head back to Harvard and get on with his life.

      The Liberal Party has to stop having elections so that it can fire its leader, especially if the leader is anointed and not elected by the party.

      Kinda looks bad.

  29. Michael Reintjes says:

    I,ve seen some dumb shit in my life. I mean some REALLY dumb Shit. But hanging a 300 million dollar election on the Taxpayer when you’re 20 points behind and falling in the polls could be the dumbest thing I,ve ever seen…

  30. For God`s sake – what Wayne said!

  31. Swervin' Merv says:

    I’m betting the quinella, Kinsella.

    Lots of polls (Nanos is always most accurate) but no poles yet, just a post time–at last.

    Let the media speculate about which horses look best going into the starting gate, but we have yet to see Iggy run in a real race.

    Those who liked Harper last time out may bet him again (if not put off by his increasing contempt). That’s called peaking (last race).

    Many Liberals stayed home from the track last time but are more likely to come out this race. NDP will again show.

    So, I’m betting the quinella because Iggy just has to keep Harper from a majority finish and the Coalition will win. (They should have won after the 2008 race if not hobbled with Dion.)

    Let the race begin.

  32. Curt says:

    Interesting, hmmmm…. very interesting. The problem is; Canadians look around the world and say we are some lucky and we don’t want to risk our present position.

  33. visionseeker says:

    I don’t give a fuck about 1993. That was 18 years ago people. Ipsos, Nanos, Reid, Decima… All are seeking to capture the CURRENT state of mind of the electorate in a country thay “doesn’t want an election”‘: which probably corelates nicely with responses to “do you want a root canal?”

    Governments run on their record and tend to defeat themselves. Joe and Jane front porch are at odds on Conservative accomplishements (i.e. are you better off than you were 5 years ago?) and thereby have every reason to hear what the Liberals have to say.

    The outcome of this election will, IMO, be a significantly weakened Con minority. That alone will spell the end of Harper and weaken the nuckle-dragging wing of the Cons. That’s a win for the country as far as I’m concerned.

  34. Eric says:

    I’ve been around the political horn long enough to understand that ‘the campaign matters’ …. but we have been in a non-stop campaign mode since 2006 … if the numbers haven’t moved in the two years, I don’ think that there is credible evidence to believe that a vast number of Canadians will change their opinion in the next 30-odd days, solely because the Liberals and NDP can buy a handful more adverts.

    I also take issue with the media apologists who say that the Opposition Leader doesn’t get a fair shake between elections. S/He may not get as much coverage, but they also do not get as much scrutiny as a PM does (not to mention that this OL had (or could have had) the benefit of a post-convention honeymoon).

    I really think that there is either a secret non-aggression pact / planned coalition between the Opposition parties or one of the two have a REAL game-changing platform up their sleeve (Proportional Rep / Instant Run Off ????) that might shake this landscape up completely.

    There appears to be no other rational reason for them to have forced an election.

  35. CuriosityCat says:

    That poll is ancient history.

    Today’s Nanos poll showing voters (41%) including Tories (25%) losing trust in the Harper government is the sign of things to come.

    The Cat believes that the Liberals will win more seats than the Tories and form the next government; the Tory votes has already started to implode; the Teflon clothing Harper has is long past its due date …

    Happy days are coming …

    • Northbaytrapper says:

      Do you honestly see the Liberals gaining seats west of Ontario? Do you see the Libs stealing votes from the Bloc especially with the way provincial politics is moving in Quebec? Are the Maritimes getting 60 new seats this time around?

      I’m “curious” how the cat sees this coming about shy of wishful thinking.

  36. Mike says:

    I’ll bet all those who resent the few minutes it takes to vote are fine with spending hours in line to buy the latest electronic gadget. Oh, and then they’ll carp because they hate the DRM issues they’re government had a hand in.

  37. Ashia says:

    Polls are great when they show your team winning.

  38. reformatory says:

    C’mon folks what’s there not to like about elections. It’s the best opportunity we have to participate in our democarcy– who can argue with that. Anybody who professes that an election is not desired now– is a closet conservative and scared. At best the Liberals win a minority. At worst the conservatives win a minority- and Harper will be shown the door for not being able to deliver. As long as Iggy hangs on to seats and gains some more- he will more than likely have the clout to hang on.

    Another talking point: Cooperation is another way to look at coalition. The liberals are much better at cooperating than the conservatives. Canadians like Cooperation– they don’t like the partisan agenda of Harper

  39. Northbaytrapper says:

    In a perfect world, we’ll have a majority Conservative government which will replicate the fiscal grunt work done by Chretien in his day and balance the books.

    In a minority parliament, there will only be a move to spend with the Dippers and the Bloc pulling the cart. Canada needs a majority government; one that is free to make really tough decisions and to hopefully not throw it away in the last year of their term as governments are apt to do.

  40. reformatory says:

    I perfectly agree
    That’s whay we need to re-create the past and get back to a majority liberal gov’t. One that we have trusted and can expect to trust again in the future. They proved to be prudent fiscal managers.. unlike the current cons. and so we should allow them to lead again, of course as you said the most perfect scnenario would be in majority status.

  41. Harvey Martin says:

    It’s a 7-point lead, not 19. See http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/03/25/pol-poll.html

    Ipsos is, once again, full of crap.

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