— Musings —04.29.2011 08:18 AM
Open election prediction thread!
Here’s your Daily Nanos Crack™:
Personally, this one delights me. If accurate, it means (a) a Conservative majority is toast and (b) we are perhaps closer to a Liberal-Democrat party (for reasons I shall explain shortly).
Now, the poll/ads blackout commences shortly, does it not? So it’s a good time to get everyone on the record, in what promises to be a very volatile weekend. And, as regular reader Art Williams suggested, we need an open election prediction thread – wherein you get to offer up your prognostications about popular vote, seat projections, majority/minority, or any combination thereof. The person(s) who is closest the actual result on election night will receive a signed copy of The War Room, and a personally-delivered invite to my next book launch (also about politics, surprise surprise, and also well underway).
So, predict away, wk.com readers! Now’s your chance to make sense of the senseless!
I’m wondering if WK or anyone can point out a seat projection that includes the poll results at the time of record advance polls along with current poll results with the NDP at 30+ %?
Or do current seat projections already take this into account?
My predictions:
Con: 144
Lib: 63
NDP: 60
Bloc: 39
Green: 1
IND: 1
I’ll make a perdiction:
Cons: 144
NDP: 65
Lib: 61
Blocc: 37
slight typo: that’s not a “perdiction,” it’s more ‘perdition’
Since everything has gone wacky, might as well start guessing wacky!
NDP: 35.1
PC: 34.9
Liberal: 20
BQ: 7
Green: 3
Conservative plurality, and we won’t know if it’s a majority until we get the results of a recount.
Man oh man I hope I’m badly wrong…
Predictions:
1. Conservative Minority Government (130- 153 seats)
2. Liberal Party remains the official Opposition (50 – 60 seats)
3. NDP remains 3rd party (50 -55 seats)
4. Bloc 30 – 40 seats
CONS 38.5
NDP 26
Lib 25
BQ 7.5
GR 3
SEATS
CONS 151
NDP 69
Lib 58
BQ 29
GN 1
CPC 124
LIB 71
NDP 97
BQ 15
OTH 1
Here are my wildly improbable predictions:
Iggy and Duceppe resign on election night. Elizabeth May wins by going up the middle due to NDP strength in BC. Harper says he will govern but later the NDP and Liberals hatch a deal for a real coalition (where Liberals will sit at the Cabinet table with the NDP and PM Jack Layton). In Toronto, Volpe loses in Eglinton-Lawrence giving the CPC their first seat in Toronto since the days of Mulroney. Kennedy loses in Parkdale-Highpark but Minna narrowly hangs on in Warren’s riding of the Beaches-East York.
Being a centrist, Red Tory / Blue Liberal my head will explode some time late Monday evening.
Art,
You say the coalition is definitely on the table despite repeated claims that it isn’t. I agree with you. We’ve heard over and over again on this site about the contempt for parliament and contempt for democracy exhibited by the CPC. Now what does this bait-and-switch say about the Liberals and NDP’s attitudes toward these lofty virtues?
Con: 148
Lib: 63
NDP: 62
BQ: 33
Green: 1
Ind: 1
My predix: Conservatives 161, Liberals 64, NDP 56, BQ 26, Greens 0, Indep 1. Hope I’m wrong w/ respect to the Conservative number but if several polls are now pointing to NDP at 30 then I’ve gotta think that if people are saying they’ll vote NDP then some of them actually will. Will it be enough to deliver seats to the NDP in Ontario? Probably not many. And I’m not sure they have the ground game to pick up all the seats in QC some are predicting they’ll pick up. The net effect of the NDP surge in both provinces may be to simply allow a Conservative candidate to win with a slim plurality. I have the Liberals staying in second because I think that enough Liberal voters who were flirting with the NDP over the past few weeks are probably listening to the appeals of Chretien and Ignatieff and deciding that they like this party, maybe even feel sorry for Ignatieff, and are going to stick with the party they’ve always supported. Not all, but enough to avoid a collapse and I’m thinking the Liberals will probably get close to 25% of the vote when all is said and done. I base most of this on what I’m guessing I’ll see happen unfold in front of me on television on Monday night and the fact that most of the pundits or newspapers are suggesting a huge NDP breakthrough, so it must be wrong. The Star has declared a majority out of reach, which suggests to me that it could very easily happen. Perhaps there’s a bit of fatalism stemming from my memory of looking at the 04 exit polls stateside and thinking that Kerry would take the presidency. Dancing on the grave of Harper’s majority dreams seems premature. Anyhow, that’s my pick and logic behind.
Ok, here are my projections… we’ll see
CPC 126
LPC 74
NDP 73
BQ 32
GR 2
Ind 1
CPC – 149
NDP – 65
LPC – 59
BQ – 35
CPC – 147
LPC – 77
NDP- 64
BLOC- 19
IND – 1
There is no reason the NDP would be motivated to merge with the Liberals at this point. They are on the cusp of a major breakthrough after 50 years of trying. They’ll be looking past this election to the next to build on their gains.
The Liberals post election will be whittled down to a core of believers in the Liberals brand. The Liberals, though more motivated for a merger, will be looking to rebuild their brand to Canadians as a government-in-waiting.
If the election result had changed little in the way of seat counts for the Libs and NDP a merger may have been in the works for the key reason that it would shake up the status quo.
One thing to note that if the Liberals and NDP did merge the some of the parts wouldn’t equal the whole since many Blue Liberals would be disenchanted with the leftish leanings of a merged party.
Pedro, http://www.pollingreport.ca/ has the best collection of polling info.
Thanks!
I dunno about that: not only are they not updating it too well (Ekos has been doing daily releases this week; this site’s latest update from them is four days ago), but they also seems to leave some big new polls out altogether (Harris-Decima, Forum)
Two other tracking / aggregater sites:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/cv11-poll-tracker/
http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls.php
If we see anything like this next week, it occurs to me that as right as Chretien may have been about the need for a merger, Broadbent would have been correspondingly wrong. Broadbent’s advice would have had the NDP forego their greatest electoral triumph to merge as a junior partner – while now any discussions will be with the NDP holding the whip hand and having denied Harper his majority.
Before the orange crush occured I thought the NDP might have won 70 seats. But things are vastly different now
There isn’t one seat projector that is up-to-date – see http://www.punditsguide.com
NDP – 126 seats
Cons – 125 seats
Libs – 39 seats
Bloc – 17 seats
Ind – 1 seat
I like how you roll
hell, if your picks turn out to be true, i’ll give you a prize. because at that point, we’ll have entered a parallel universe, where anything is possible.
Tories: 133
NDP: 89
Libs: 60
BQ: 25
Green: 1
Personally, I’m hoping the NDP grabs another 5 or 6 from the Bloc & Tories, but that’s my random guess. Which seems to be about as good as the polling firms are capable of these days.
Besides my hopeful prediction I expect yours to be the next likely result.
Politics as a real sport with people getting hurt will result.
Hold on for a hell of a ride!
Oh, for the record – mark one of my Tory seats as going to an independent conservative.
Tory minority, vote of no confidence at throne speech, Layton-led coalition.
The biggest gains for the NDP will be in Quebec, especially after the endorsement of two high-profile Bloc members.
NDP will have 90-100 seats.
And just to be silly: Elizabeth May will win her riding. 😉
CPC: 125
NDP: 108
LPC: 52
BQ: 20
Green: 1
Ind: 2
Yeah, yeah, I know. It’s coming, you bastard.
I will lose enough money to you, dammit!
well, acc. to the CPC’s own Nony and Mouse, it’s not in the cards even in their internal polls
why not the full double or nothin’, then, you two: with the loser having to donate to the other’s party AND local riding.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982356–exclusive-majority-out-of-reach-tories-say
OK Warren, I will do this only on the condition that I can change my prediction as many times as I want up until midnight on May 1 and that you have to accept my estimate that is closest to the actual result. Then that glossy signed copy of War Room will be mine, all mine…
Popular Vote:
CPC: 36%
LPC: 29%
NDP: 24%
BLOC: 7%
Greens: 4%
Seats:
CPC: 142
LPC: 80
NDP: 46
BLOC: 40
Contrarian that I am, I’ll predict some last-minute movement to the Tories by voters who fear a government led by the NDP. (Admittedly, this impulse could also — or instead — provoke movement to the Liberals.) I’ll say CPC 153, NDP 72, Liberals 60, Bloc 22, Greens 1. This is not based on anything more sophisticated than the roughest sort of guesswork — no laboring over a hot spreadsheet here — and is from a vantage abroad.
I’m with you Charles:
Cons: 150
Libs//NDP About tied: 67
Bloc 22 (don’t know?)
Green 1
Helena 1 ?
(Theory: people don’t want to tell pollsters they’ll vote Helena despite her troubles.)
Cons- 141
Dippers- 57
Grits- 64
BQ- 44
Green- 0
Ind- 2
Anybody who wants to make a prediction for a chance to win prizes (audio books and an MP3 album) is welcome to make their prediction over at my election pool as well (see here). My election pool encourages people to make their predictions early by breaking up the campaign into two halves, and penalizing those who predict late by 100 points compared to those who predict early.
…somehow I don’t think predicting late is a disadvantage anymore.
So, come one come all. The contest is open until the polls close in Newfoundland.
Hmmmm, how is predicting late an advantage, then? The way things are going, it is like trying to grab smoke.
WK, how about a signed copy of your book for the winner or closest to the pin? 🙂
Heh. As if I could.
Care to place your prediction, sir? For a chance at prizes? 🙂
Cons 156
NDP 70
Libs 60
BQ 22
Canadians outside of Quebec will come to their senses and vote for the Cons for a majority.
And the War will be over by Christmas.
“It’s a Long Way… to Harperary”
Cons 142 (should be less but lies seem to work)
Lib 66 (sad they can’t seem to get it together)
Dippers 67 (OMG the increased taxes)
BQ 32 (they should be illegal .. but ahhh the pensions)
Ind 1 (can I hedge and say 1 Greenie? .. nah they won’t)
Prediction –
Tories 152
Liberals 64
NDP 64
Bloc 28
The Liberals and the NDP are too busy fighting over who gets to be the Official Opposition, let alone who would be leading the coalition. Meanwhile, the Tories try to stealthily poach 3 Opposition MPs from whatever party to try and get a majority. It will be a time of intrigue and high adventure in Canadian politics, making it a political blogger’s wet dream and a political insider’s book deal.
Hey it is kind of crazy, but so was the idea of PM Jack Layton.
I was thinking along the same lines, CPC= 151, with floor-crossing being the theme of the up-coming Parliament, with frustrated Liberals wanting a cabinet position being stolen to the CPC and later NDPers tired of sharing caucus with inexperienced/radicalized MPs being stolen by the Liberals.
Instead, I decided that perhaps the $$$ spent on attacking Ignatieff went too far and some of the mud the CPC has been slinging stuck to Harper, to Layton’s trap for both of them, and that the CPC not only killed its chances for a majority, they hurt themselves more deeply than anyone would have predicted when the writ was dropped. There is a chance that the Harperites have miscalculated the degree to which their base is truly REFORM-minded. Perhaps Canadians want change. Perhaps, just maybe, Canadian electoral wisdom is, if the CPC must be re-elected, Canadians are also prepared to do what it takes to ignite a movement in the CPC to replace Harper.
Ignatieff has done a good enough job campaigning and perhaps with the NDP splitting the BQ vote in Quebec, the Liberals might hang on there, at the expense of the BQ. Liberals would be wise to hang onto him, bidding their time for the inexperienced NDPers to mess up after having cultivated the land for change…
Another question: how many seats will be caught up in re-counts because the results are so close?
CPC 159
BQ 41
LPC 65
ND 43
Cons 130
Liberals 95
NDP 69
Bloc 12
Green 1
Indy 1
I can’t jinx anything by guessing, right?
Conservatives: 129
NDP: 110
Liberals: 52
Bloc: 15
Green: 1
Ind: 1
Deadline?
CPC 138
LPC 73
NDP 55
BQ 41
GR 1
Wow, you Liberals are more encouraging for the conservatives than some conservative blogs.
My estimate is the same as “the other Jim”
re: “you Liberals” – um, at least half of the commenters (or certainly, the comments) on any given day here are pro-CPC (many of them, like Gord, hailing from the SDA corner of the world), and 15% or so are pro-NDP. Just like, sigh, in the the HOC (also sans BQ) until recently.
These are my predictions:
Conservative – 133
Liberal – 83
NDP – 80
Bloc Q – 10
Green – 1
Independent – 1
Total = 308
I’m intrigued by the (few) predictions that have the Liberals gaining ground in this election. You’ll deserve a lot of credit if it shakes out that way.
To be honest, I hope NDP gets far, far more. I am basing my numbers on the fact that NDP doesn’t have the ground game in Quebec, and the Lib Dems in UK also saw a similar surge before voters changed their minds.
Con: 157
Lib: 67
NDP: 64
Bloc: 19
Ind: 1
Conservative-led reckless coalition!
Ok, I’m half-kidding, but hey, anyone who chooses to put pen to paper and predict this one is blaspheming the Election Gods.
Cons 154
Libs 63
NDP 49
BQ 41
Ind 1
Conservatives: 145
Liberals: 51
NDP: 91
BQ: 20
Green: 1 (Yes, Elisabeth)
Independent: 1
A few seats in Winnipeg and Ontario could give a majority to an NDP+Liberal coalition, but we’re not quite there yet, unless the NDP truly hammers the BQ in Quebec to 10 or so seats.
Cons 153
Libs 67
Diptoids 62
Bloc 25
Indy 1
And, if possible should I guess right, how about an invite to a SFH evening?
I usually wait for the movie so I dont spoil it by reading the book….
The speaker only votes in the case of a tie. He/she does vote on confidence motions and by convention must vote in favour of extending debate and keeping parliament going. So you are correct that 153 would give you an effective conservative majority if 1 independent always votes with them and the speaker is an opposition members. You may even have 2 independents in this boat.
The NDP “surge” will disappear and we will wind up with a seat count VERY close to last parliament.
Given what happened to the surging Lib-Dems in Britain recently, I fear the orange wave will fade – but not soon enough to prevent spooking just enough folks into voting for Dear Leader.
Cons: 160
Libs: 63
NDP: 55
Bloc: 30
Gawd, I hope I am wrong but… through years of painful therapy (ie watching and working in elections) I have come to never over estimate the collective intelligence of the electorate. Sigh!
Wow – lots of people predicting the Liberals hold onto Official Opposition.
I don’t see it. Unless *all* of the polls are wrong, the Liberals are going to finish several points back of the NDP. Today’s EKOS has them falling to 20% nationally, in a tie with the Dippers in Ontario, and third everywhere else (except Quebec where they are fourth). A lot of that NDP vote won’t get out, but come on – even with low NDP turnout, there’s no way the Liberals make up what is now a nearly 10-point gap with the NDP.
CPC 145
NDP 75
LIB 60
BQ 27
GRN 1
You might want to look a little closer. It can be seen.
I’m looking closer, and what I see is the Liberals falling to 18 percent in today’s IPSOS-Reid poll, a full 15 points back of the Dippers, and now in third place everywhere (including Ontario). But I’ll keep looking
Screw it – I’ll bite.
Pop Vote: Cons 35, NDP 34, Libs 22, Bloc 5.5, Greens 3.5
Seats*: Cons 135, Libs 65, NDP 98-100, Bloc 8, Greens 0/1, Independent 0/1
*Wildcards are May for the Greens in Gulf-Saanich, Guergis in Simcoe (the latter specifically due to vote splitting)
Prognostications:
1) After 912 elections and no majority, especially after the “give me a majority right now or all your children will die” campaign, a reduced minority followed by loss of government will mean Harper is toast. This has several implications: 1) By nature and nurture, Harper IS the CPC. There’s no one else with the Asperger’s-like discipline to keep that beast alive. Expect the Joe Clark’s to head to the Liberals. Guergis if elected returns to the fold.
2) Long-game Jack will immediately move to calm markets and double-down on the middle class with populist policies, with an eye to forming the next government (if Harper falls) and beyond that – laying the groundwork for a permanently strengthened NDP after his departure. Expect them to target not regions, but pan-Canadian demographics.
3) Forget jets and jails.
4) In the case of a very bad defeat, some Bloc candidates may cross the floor to other parties, justified by how they can best represent Quebec interests (probably to the lib/dippers). Hard-core separatists will abandon the federal field and double-down on the PQ.
5) The scorched earth policy of the CPC will make it extremely hard for them to tempt away lib mp’s.
6) The libs learn a lesson from the dips and don’t dump Ignatieff (providing he decides to stay). If they DO dump him, they’ll further justify to voters why they shouldn’t have power. That being said, expect a major internal realignment.
7) A big dipper win will invigorate provincial NDP organizations, and catch the attention of the waking giant of progressivism (sic) south of the border. It would capture the imagination of people continent-wide.
8) There will be a strong regional backlash from certain elements, primarily in Alberta, which will begin to sound and act more like Quebec under the PQ, except with oil. Once the sky doesn’t fall, and with the help of some common-sense reach-out (around?) by the winners, backed up by clear-eyed divide-and-conquer, this will subside.
9) The much-mythologized CPC “base” will have partially melted away and voted for – good GOD – Commies. Expect a crisis of faith, cries of betrayal, infighting, and self-destructive idiocy as the primary psychic drivers of the CPC – anger and resentment – get turned inward. More balanced personalities on all sides of the issue will re-assess their left-right, elitist-populist paradigms, and begin to re-evaluate Canadian politics in new and refreshing ways from which we can all benefit.
10) The libs may decide to allow the CPC to govern, and instead become the NDP, holding the balance of power and positioning themselves as the center-ist party “making parliament work” for Canadians by balancing out the “extremist” elements.
Bonus Question – Big Game/Transformative: Under a dipper/lib coalition the most major/radical potential policy push may be towards proportional representation (probably with some sort of qualifying floor of support, to weed out the nutbars). This has the potential to break the back of divisive region-based parties, pave the way for a consensus model on CDN politics, and avoid the need for a merger of anyone with anyone. There are any number of paths forward on this.
Damn fine work there! I’ll climb on to this particular bandwagon if there is any room. Ignatieff shouldn’t be dumped at this point, for the reasons laid out above. The LPC has really got to gather it’s poop in a group after this election. PM Jack won’t be the disaster that the neo-cons alternately fear and hope he will. The Conservative Party will impode in an orgy of infighting and betrayal which will resemble a cross between the last days of the Paris Commune and the Fall of Saigon. I will spend the next 18 months lurking on Small Tories Blogging Dead Animals weeping with laughter.
and Mr. I Think I Make the Rules / Tough On (Others’) Crime may find himself….
in an International Court, facing possible Canadian war crimes!
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/982371–international-court-could-probe-possible-canadian-war-crimes
Nice! I wonder if Sun TV will cover the perp walk?
Whether Ignatieff should be dumped or not is not the question. The real deal is should the powerful cabal of Rosedale Liberals or whomever they are continue to run the party, or will democracy finally come to the LPC? No more local nominations over-riden by LPC Command Central. No more “leave to us, The Experts”. No more elitism. More fair play.
In the meantime, the best thing Libs MPs can do in Parliament in the advent of a big NDP win is to fight the Con spin about radical socialists turning Alberta into giant fields of organic turnip communes. I can hear Ezra Levant gnashing his teeth right now….
I’m not brave enough to make a seat projection but I will say it is an improved CPC seat count from last time. I’m not calling it a majority but I do feel it could be close.
I do wish to predict that Duceppe and The Count of Harvard will resign, The Count possibly aided by an upset loss in Etobicoke Lakeshore in a VERY close vote. I do hope they both save the drama for another day instead of coward out like Paul Martin did. The knives will come out soon enough for both if the polls are even close to right so at least let the poor bastards who are still door knocking and defending you this weekend feel you haven’t abandoned them. Take the freaking loss like a man and don’t kick your most loyal followers in the bag when they need your leadership most.
The real hard one for me is just how the Liberals show this time out? Would third place be enough for them to finally admit defeat or will they continue to bang the election drum? I’m thinking the bigger story Monday night will not be the NDP surge but the Liberal collapse but I really feel this is the hardest one to call. They could actually hang in as a very weak 2nd place but they could also implode with candidcate fleeing left and right to other parties and I just don’t know which it is.
One of the two parties responsible for bringing us socialism (Liberal and Bloc) will be a footnote to history down the road. As I said they should merge these two, both despise the west, both hate Harper, both stand for nothing but themselves. They could call it the Selfish Bastards Party.
Sorry Warren, I just don’t see you as material for this new party but the leadership in so many ways is nothing but to this person’s view.
Steve the Liar 123
Marijuana Mike 81
Jumpin’ Jack flash in the pan 78
Gilles the has been 23
Indy 2
Liz 1
“It’s in the writ action.”
Man, Dion is looking like a God right now.
Typical Liberal these days…
Looking backward.
The longer you take to turn Liberal faces forward, the further from a recovery, if it can come.
This is one of the harder elections to predict
Conservatives 142
NDP 72
Liberals 66
Bloc 27
Independent 1
I’m still skeptical of the strength of the orange crush, but many polls are confirming each other’s prognosis. I think that the Liberals can still beat the NDP in the seat count for Official Opposition at this point but they have too many weak candidates (some allegedly non-existent!) and so when people go to vote and they’ll see that it’s some unknown student Marxist on the NDP ballot line, they’ll just turn their noses and vote for the Liberals/Bloc or whoever is the non-Conservative candidate.
With this result, there still aren’t enough NDP + Liberal MPs to outnumber the Conservative caucus. While Bloc support is evaporating to the NDP, they will still be strong enough to elect a sizeable caucus because the NDP candidates running against credible Bloc candidates are a joke.
Warren talks a lot about an NDP-Liberal merger, but I think there are too many pro-business elements within the Liberal party to ever let that happen. I suppose if Liberals collapse far enough to be reduced to 35 seats or less, they might do it, with 2/3 of the caucus going NDP and the rest going to the Conservatives.
Would it be better if Canada was a 2-party system like the US? That might hurt the Conservatives in the short term (with a strong united left without vote splitting) but eventually the Cons would adapt and tailor their platform to appeal to a broader coalition of voters.
One thing is certain: nothing is permanent in politics. In my lifetime, the most significant political realignments were 1993 (the right was fractured with the Reform taking the conservative vote in the West, and the breakthrough of the Bloc) and 2004 (when the right was united. 2006 and 2008 were actually repeats of ’04 with the Conservatives just increasing their seat count). ’11 should be considered a realignment if the NDP finally breaks through and beats the Liberals for official opposition. But will it be long lasting? Or will their support in Quebec go the way of the ADQ?
In regards to my previous comment about “in my lifetime”, I should state that I’m too young to remember the elections before 1988. ’88 was not a realignment per se — the Conservatives did lose seats but still formed the government. A strong campaign by Turner did double their seat count but they still lost. It was also the year where the NDP was polling within an earshot of beating the Conservatives but their support frittered away at the end finishing with a respectable 43 seats (their highest ever).
Cons: 36% / 140
NDP: 29% / 70
Lib: 24% / 68
Bloc: 5.5% / 29
Grn: 4.5% / 0
Ind: 1 seat.
Shit I didn’t see there was a book (way too quick to comment before my brain engaged the plot line) in the deal so I will predict away with the same confidence of my earlier post. Most likely all bullshit but I have to try and Warren, though I might knock you a bit it would be an honour to meet and see if I can’t sign you up to a CPC membership in the Jim Flaherty led party.
CPC 158
NDP 85
Bloc 38 *
Liberals 37 *
* – Before dissolution of parties
This is pure guesswork. I made a few assumptions about no seats changing hands in Albert or the Far North.
CON 149
LIB 60
NDP 70
BQ 28
IND 1
I am loath to put all the regionals out there, but in Quebec, I contemplated the NDP winning 33 seats (from 1), the Liberals 7 (from 14) and the Conservatives + Independent 7 (from 12). I really can’t imagine Jack wiping out the entire Quebec Liberal caucus, no matter how well his party is doing. Similarly, I find it hard to imagine all of the Conservatives going down to defeat there.
Conservative = 158
Liberal = 66
NDP = 43
BQ = 41
Green = 0
Ind = 0
Cons 124
Liberals 65
NDP 106
Bloc 13
Green 0
Indy 0
Tory minority until Throne Speech. Throne speech will be defeated. Cobbled coalition of NDP and enough Liberals who will either cross the floor or an adhoc merger of the two. Constitutional crisis shortly thereafter. National unity crisis within 12 months. Canada bankrupt within 36 months of a Layton led government.
Also, a zombie apocalypse.
But Milla Jovovich will save the day. (But not, er, Day: his brains were eaten long, long ago.)
“Also, a zombie apocalypse.”
Oh please no…Canada’s had enough of Chretien.
NDP voters will forget to go as they get totally enthralled with reruns of golden girls playing on deja view, blue grits and red tories come out in high numbers to ensure Smiling Jack doesn’t get in.
CPC – 185
NDP – 56
Lib – 36
PQ – 30
Indy – 1
If the tories get a majority I also predict that the next election will be contested by new leaders in all the parties.
Iggy steps down within three months
Lizey steps down within six months
Giles steps down within eight months
Jack steps down within 18 months
Harper steps down in year 3
I am still waiting for the Globe and Mail to endorse Bashar Al-Asad.
Ha! If Al-Asad would open Syria up to Western capital, the Globe certainly would endorse him, as long as he didn’t shoot so many people that it gets embarrassing.
When you think about it, the Globe’s endorsement of Harper follows the same logic as the usual apologetics for undemocratic but pro-Western foreign regimes.
I will probably be wrong with vote %, but will put that out as well. I really keep wondering if we’re understating the liberal vote and overstating the NDP.
Con: 38%
NDP: 27%
Lib: 24%
Bloc: 7%
Green: 4%
Oh, sure, why not.
C 121
N 103
L 68
B 15
G 1
I 0
This is very very different from my prediction of two weeks ago! Who knew campaigns matter?
cpc 145
lib 62
ndp 62
bloc 37
green 1
ind 1
added bonus prediction
Ontario
55(c)
26(N)
24(L)
1(I)
Crooks 123
Old Crooks 34
New Crooks 131
Voleur 19
Vegan Crooks 1
Best election I’ve seen…great fun.
Conservative Minority
NDP Official Opposition
Liberals and NDP vote down the Government and try to form a Democrat/Socialist Govt.
Liberal-Democrat Party! Hey, why not go all the way and call it the Liberal Social Democratic (LSD) Party? Makes a great acronym, non?
I predict a Rob Ford-style election surprise on Monday and say Conservative majority at 160 seats, with 41% popular support. NDP flirtation/Jack Layton-personality cult will collapse inside voting booths across the country.
Polls just before Toronto’s mayoral election had Ford and Smitherman at 32 and 31 per cent respectively. Ford ended up winning in landslide at 47 per cent.
You’re simply impermeable to counter-evidence, aren’t you, James? A good little conservative.
You keep saying — and clinging blindly to — that, and I keep pointing out that, even if some crappy polls still had them that close, that late:
Ekos had them at 8 points apart, three-days before the election
and Forum Research had them 6 points apart, a week before the election
http://www.torontosun.com/news/torontovotes2010/2010/10/22/15796521.html/
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2010/15/c2819.html
Now that the Toronto Star has shockingly endorsed Layton and the NDP in Saturday’s paper, the chances of a Harper majority look stronger than ever!!!
NDP and CPC supporters are cut from the same cloth…in many cases their supporters are loyal beyond reason and this may bias polling results to their favour. The CPC has also created a perception that media and polls are all used for propaganda purposes rather than for genuinely garnering public opinion IMHO, so only diehards will answer genuinely respond to solicited surveys.
Only blind partisans would rue the possibility that the NDP gains official opposition status or even dare I say, forms government. Ultimately, their policies will have to be tempered by either the LPC or the CPC if they want to hold government for any period of time.
It justifies the call for an election. And it justifies its basis on ethics.
And like I commented a while back, if the LPC loses because it bled support from the left, and gained from the progressive right, then the just thing was done by calling the election, because it marginalizes the CPC to the extreme right where it truly belongs.
Then we can talk about restructuring the political landscape.
CPC 39.4 / 152
ND 26.7 / 77
LPC 24.4 / 55
BQ 5.4 / 24
Oth: 4.1 / 0
No coalition. Scheduled tax cuts will stay, vote subsidy will stay, some other minor concessions to the opposition.
Before I give my projections I just have some questions, relating to some universal pretensions. Alberta Con candidates are sequestered, hiding, missing or in detention. So it raises the question: What if on may 3rd we have situations where they still can’t be found, will there be by-elections? Should I be factoring this into my projections?
Cons – 155
NDP – 76
Libs – 49
BLoc – 26
Ind. – 2
The NDP platform includes scrapping the Clarity Act and accepting 50 percent plus one as acceptable for Quebec separation in a referendum. Are the Liberals so morally bankrupt that they would go along with this? Would Layton drop these stands after winning huge in Quebec? If there is a coalition, it will be a “stability coalition” between Conservatives and Liberals while both parties have leadership conventions.
Cons 158 38%
NDP 75 30%
Lib 50 22%
Greens 0 4%
BQ 25 6%
Cons 135
Liberals 62
NDP 88
Bloc 22
Green 0
Ind: 1
My opinion: NDP minority government
NDP 118
Cons 110
Liberals 65
Bloc 13
Green 1
Independent Conservative 1
The Conservatives could lose a lot of seats and still win a higher percentage of the vote than the NDP because of those easy Conservative wins in so many prairie ridings.
I wonder if these last few days will see a drop for the NDP as people give them and the platform a more critical eye.
I wonder if we’ll see premature e-Jack-ulation!
I should get a signed copy of the book just for that 🙂
… agreed… prize for premature e-Jack-elation
.
CPC: 110
NDP: 92
LPC: 83
BQ: 23
Green: 0
I’ve no idea.
My only hope is that people vote smart, vote strategically where needed, to prevent a Harper majority. Preventing a Harper minority is almost too much to ask for but if I were asking I’d like it to be a very, very, very, small minority and as few Bloc elected as possible.
With that outcome, there’s no way in hell Harper can stand in the way of a co-operative Lib-NDP government, and he’s done, for good.
At the moment all I can dream up are probabilities:
66% chance Harper gets strong enough minority to keep on governing
50% chance Harper minority shrunk markedly
32% chance the “wave” *plus* and smart voters voting smartly avoid giving Harper an increased minority or majority (yes, this means 67% chance Harper gets stronger minority or majority)
25% chance NDP really takes nation
Forgot one category:
90% chance a majority of Canadians get a government they didn’t really want. Interpret that as you will.
I strongly believe women voters are a massive factor in this election.
While Ford Nation is homo-erotically fixated on UFC this weekend, their wives will be shacking up with Jack.
I think the key factor that will come into play is how the polls are projecting the outcome.
During the 2008 election campaign, there were seven pollsters polling nationally. When I compared their last results before election day to the election results, I noticed something very interesting.
They all underestimated Conservative (incumbent) support.
Not one pollster actually had the Tories polling higher than what they actually received at the ballot box. Furthermore, aside from Angus Reid (at 0.7% below), all the other pollsters were between 2.7% and 4.7% below the final election tally for the Conservatives. Most polls are usually in the ±3% margin of error range, and it seems that almost all of them were at the far end of that range or beyond in 2008.
On the other side of the coin, for both the Liberals and NDP (opposition), a full 5 of the 7 pollsters overestimated the actual election outcome. For the Green party all the pollsters were ‘high’, while for the BQ all but one poll was within ±1% of the predicted outcome.
Back in 2006 the same happened to the Liberals. As they fought for their political lives, all four national pollsters underestimated Liberal party (incumbent) support in the last poll before the 2006 general election. Alternately, just as had happened in 2008, the pollsters overestimated Conservative (opposition) support in the 2006 campaign. Despite the Tory win, the numbers weren’t nearly as high as projected. (Again in 2006, pollsters also overestimated NDP support.)
This can’t be coincidence.
However, no matter what side people are on, they would be wise not to underestimate support for the incumbent or overestimate support for the opponents. The polls seem to have an uncanny knack of leaning in a particular direction based on past examples.
…but there is no historic parallel to current circumstances. Mr. Harper has solid, core support that is unwavering, but, because he is such a well-known quantity, this is unlikely to grow.
Canadians may have voted for him on spec before, but now that it’s clear he is a spent force- that there really isn’t anything there – they will vote for ABH, perhaps, if they have conservative inclinations, hoping that Mr. Harper’s demise will lead to a resurgence of the PCP .
.
In my interactions with CPC campaign workers, long term conservatives (I worked for Clark and Mulroney candidates) and young co-workers ( in a manufacturing facility), the PCP standard bearers are few and far between. An Ignatieff-type flame-out might bring them out though, and most in the CPC welcome the chance to debate the PCP-types if and when Harper resigns. Never has hurt a party in the long run (Nudge-nudge, wink-wink Liberals; shoulda done it after Dion. As Warren has stated, do it soon before the government subsidies are taken away.).
After polls close:
CPC / 152
ND / 79
LPC 24.4 / 51
BQ 5.4 / 26
Oth: /1
After sober reflection, 6 LIb cross floor to join CPC, preventing stalemate everyone is sick of.
con 138
ndp 101
lib 49
bq 19
green 1
Cons 127 -35%
NDP 81 – 31%
Libs 74 – 25%
Bloc 24 – 5%
Grns 1 – 4%
IND 1
Cons 131 – 34.5%
NDP 79 – 30.5%
Libs 67 – 25.5%
Bloc 29 – 6.5%
Ind 2 – 1%
Cons 136
NDP 76
Libs 71
Bloc 23
Grns 1
IND 1
Ground game and committed base still matters, so not the huge triple-digit swell the polls show for NDP. But still pretty stunning. The two Green seats are Elizabeth and a surprise in Yukon. Use Green seat predictions as a tie-breaker.
Cons 129
NDP 84
Libs 68
Bloc 25
Greens 2
CPC – 102
LPC – 102
NDP – 102
GRN – 1
IND – 1
And I can’t wait to see them sort that mess out.
Oh crap. Can’t edit. Sorry Gilles, forgot all about you.
CPC – 92
LPC – 92
NDP – 92
BQ – 30
GRN – 1
IND – 1
^I’d pay to see that result. 😉
CPC – 124
NDP – 115
LIB – 46
BQ – 22
IND – 1
CPC – 135 – 35%
NDP -94 – 31%
LPC – 58 – 20%
BQ – 20 – 6%
Green – 1 – 7%
Other – 1 – 1%
Watch Steve-o go back on all his previous coalition talk and try anything – anything – to stay in power. This includes a potential Con/Lib joint effort, which will drive a stake in the heart of the party if they go there. Given they’ll be in panic themselves, God knows.
Hoping that anti-Harper feelings are stronger than the panic, though. In which case, very close to a Lib/NDP coalition. If Gilles Duceppe himself loses, at least a couple of BQ MPs will bolt off to the NDP creating the conditions for a coalition with PM Jack Layton, interim deputy PM Iggy (who will be leader for about five minutes into his concession speech) and a very interesting cabinet indeed.
If Jack is smart, he’ll see his backbench for what it will be – a billion neophytes of dubious background – and reserve the time in government to train them up to speed. This would give the Liberals more clout than they’d probably deserve. Bob and Ujjal will eat crow and dig out their orange ties. Ralph Goodale could even find his way back to Finance, or McCallum in revenue. It’ll be Martin’s government with an orange hue.
And that’s probably the best outcome of all this. If Jack can kick out Harper, cause serious reflection in the Liberal camp, fatally wound the BQ, and NOT see this all as a mandate to govern from the hard left, he might just earn a minority – or better – the next time.
I wouldn’t count it out.
Cons – 156
Libs – 59
NDP – 47
Bloc – 44
Ind – 1
Green – 1
Divining the sheep entrails…..
Con: 144
Lib: 62
NDP: 81
Bloc: 19
Green: 1
IND: 1
Personally, I dont give ratz behind, as long as Mr. Harper is denied his majority……Harper steps down, pushed actually, and the Con leadership, kaff, internecine warfare, kaff, race begins….
Mr. Ignatieff, sadly, shot at dawn……to be replaced by…..wait for it……Scott Brison…..
Hey if Jason Kenney and John Baird can run, why not Scott?……
Steve- 132
Jack- 76
Mike- 64
Gilles- 34
Liz- 0
Indy-Rock- 2
Talk radio is going nuts and dissing Jack all day, pity only the Ford Nation listens to these jackasses – no growth there
CPC 145; LPC 70; NDP 65; BQ 27; GRN /INDEPENDENT 1
On the bright side, it’s gratifying to see Harper sound desperate and Layton finally sounding defensive about his policies and phantom candidates.
..to the ramparts, then!!!!!!
CONS: 136
NDP: 102
LIB: 35
BQ: 34
IND: 1
GRN: 0
I predict that the NDP will win 40% of the popular vote in Quebec, but will finish second in every riding with 25% of the vote.
(I also did the math for costing the NDP platform.)
Conservatives – 125 (35.2%)
NDP – 94 (28.7%)
Liberals – 62 (23.8%)
Bloc – 24 (4.9%)
Green – 1 (6.4%)
Independant – 2 (1.0%)
Total Voter Turnout: 62.2%
Outcome of Election: Conservative minority defeated on throne speech. Layton heads government with 50% Liberal cabinet due to his own team’s inexperience.
Campbell, you should get 3 stars for predicting the most important stat of all…total voter turnout. I agree that it will beat 2008, but not by much.
Really, any result will do that enables the Liberals and the NDP to outnumber Harper without the help of the Bloc. As long as that happens, our democracy will be liberated because it will remove the last “legitimate” argument from Harper’s anti-coalition playbook.
Seats
Conservative: 135
NDP: 97
Liberal: 59
Bloc: 16
Green: 1
Popular Vote
Conservative: ~34
NDP: ~33
Liberal: ~20
Bloc: ~6
Green: ~5
Other: ~2
This depends greatly on Ontario. I could see the Conservative vote there begin to collapse if it really looks like an NDP-Liberal coalition will win. Voters tend to jump on bandwagons in my experience. If that happens I would send ~20 seats away from the Tories, mostly towards the Liberals. Basically, I assume that the Tories will either lose seats or hold steady in every region except Ontario. If there is enough time for this to dawn on the voters there, they will likely jump ship as well. Either way, Steven Harper is going to wish that e-day was at least a week earlier.
I leave it to the reader to guess whether May or Carr end up with the Green seat.
Fascists – 142
Commies – 70
Our Natural Overlords – 65
Traitors – 29
Tin Lizzie – 1 (even though she irritates me immensely)
Indy – 1
LOL, good one Doc!
BEST.
Prediction.
Yet.
Seats:
CPC 132
LPC 84
ND 48
BQ 35
GRN 1
IND 1
I’m hoping for the “Ekos right! Nobody in QC likes the Bloc anymore!” Scenario
Con: 144
Lib: 63
NDP: 91
Bloc: 9
Green: 0
Andre Arthur: 1
But the coalition government falls in 6 months when some small c conservative Grits cross the floor to the Tories and Andre Arthur who agree to a coalition with the Bloc.
In the ensuing election Warren Kinsella runs in Vaughan for the newly formed Liberal-Democrats and beats out the conservative incumbent.
These bird entrails don’t lie. Divination is a proven science!
You’re one to talk about one-sided media, if you equate NDP with “socialism”, and that with “Greece”. Lots of northern European countries have done quite well with social democratic (NOT socialist!) style governments. Try Norway for example.
Incidentally, one of Greece’s biggest problems has been the state’s failure to collect tax revenues from its evasive wealthier citizens.
Meanwhile, if you like southern European analogies, try this one: if Harper wins, Canada will start to look a lot more like Italy, and I don’t mean the dolce vita.
Your northern European countries’ debt per GDP or debt per Cap are as good as you socialists would like to think.
Norway is huge huge oil exporter that can afford socialism and if you’d ever been there you’d know it’s not what you’d suppose despite their wealth.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_deb_ext_percap-economy-debt-external-per-capita
External debt per capita by country.
Rank Countries Amount
# 1 Ireland: $448,031.51
# 2 Switzerland: $177,373.94
# 3 United Kingdom: $171,942.20
# 4 Netherlands: $137,411.93
# 5 Belgium: $126,344.44
# 6 Norway: $101,362.90
# 8 Denmark: $90,085.81
# 10 Sweden: $66,130.66
# 11 France: $56,702.84
# 12 Germany: $54,477.50
# 13 Finland: $51,770.94
# 14 United States: $40,678.76
# 16 Italy: $40,328.31
# 17 Portugal: $39,040.35
# 19 Greece: $34,699.23
# 21 Spain: $26,799.72
# 22 Canada: $22,719.28
Cool, making predictions is always fun:
Current Status
Cons 143
Libs 77
Dippers 36
BQists 47
Indie/Vacant 5
What they may say on E-Day
Atlantic Provinces: Tories pick up a couple seats cuz all is forgiven in Nfld., Nova Scotia (I have no idea but mb McKay gets nervous), PEI (status quo), NB(I have no idea).
Quebec: Mass exodus to Dippers by French-Quebec while Tories lose a couple seats; Cannon, Duceppe and Justin Trudeau get nervous. Everyone says Dippers will probably give back the seats in the next election cuz it makes the Liberals and BQ feel better and that’s what the ADQ did anyway.
Ontario: splits galore boost Tories and take a GTA seat or two. Helena gets redemption. Harper goes Oops!!
Praries: Annoyed Alberta might give up a Tory seat or two. Sask yawns, Manitoba might squeeze out a Dipper seat or two more.
B.C.: My home province is the bastion of decades old Dipper versus Free Market blood-and-guts politics. The workers vs. the robber barons, etc. BCers remember disasterous Dipper Glen Clark regime in the 1990s and think it’s basketcase economy all over again where the VanCity Condo market crashes again. Give up a couple seats to Greens and Dippers cuz it’s good for the environment, but basically hold the line for the Tories.
After processing all this
E-Day Seat Projection
Current Status
Cons 149 (+6)
Libs 61(-16)
Dippers 78(+42)
BQists 17(-30)
Indie 3(+Helena, +May)
Post E-Day Developments
Harper governs in Tory minority and cuts deals to buy time while the CPC attack machines re-loads and hits Jack Layton and Dippers hard. BC and Ont. NDP failed administrations give many good examples of bad Dipper governance. As long as Cons don’t have an Adscam type scandal erupt, the strategy works and no coalistion gov’t is formed to replace Tories.
con 156
dip 100
lib 23
blq 29
Total 308
THis is what I think will happen election day.
I think the only real shift will be Que and Ont.
The real story on May 3 will be how the pollsters got it so wrong.
Cons 165
Lib 51
NDP 65
Bloc 26
Greens 1
I’m thinking (meaning hoping a lot) that we may experience a phenomena similar to Ford’s 47% romp in Toronto, while the last polls had him pegged tied in the low 30s with whatshisface. If advance poll turnouts everywhere else were like the one I was at, virtually everyone was of the over 40 crowd…and the CPC polls in the 45% to 50% range with them. Point being, this vote is locked in already, ahead of most of the fascination with smilin’ Jack. Heavy turn out usually bodes one of two things: A decided tilt to either “Kick the bums out!” Or “these guys are doing okay, let’s make sure we keep those other buggers out!” It’s generally a considered that there’s no real sense of the former, but rather…given how well things are going for economy, etc…much more of the latter.
My prediction? The CPC comes close to a majority…and then a handful of Lib MPs jump ship to provide a majority, and stability thereof, while blocking the socialist hordes at the doors that many of them dislike as intensely as Conservatives.
We’ll see soon enough.
Enough with the urban myth, already: two big polls had Ford clearly ahead, at 44%, about a week before the election
http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/04/open-election-prediction-thread/#comment-38558
last line of the article may be why people believe why it was tied
“That poll, like others, found Ford and Smitherman locked in a statistical tie.”
figure just a large margin of error
no – that last line* (which I doubt James would’ve read all the way down to, anyway) is referring to a different poll, by QMI’s own favoured pollster Leger, which is the only one James from Toronto does and is willing to remember (and it seems Al from Cranbrook is just repeating what James told him, repeatedly, here), which had them both being in the low 30s & it being too close to call.
Whereas the Ekos poll found over an 8 pt spread, with a 4 pt. MOE, and it wasn’t reported as a statistical tie, but as putting Ford “back in [the] driver’s seat,” with a “pretty strong” advantage, since he was in the mid-40s (43.9%) compared to Smitherman in the mid-30s (35.6%).
*in http://www.torontosun.com/news/torontovotes2010/2010/10/22/15796521.html/
Is there anyone else old enough to remember WAC Bennett warning (nearly 2 weeks before the 72 election in BC ) that…. “the Socialist hordes are at the gates in British Columbia. I told you ..Harper is an old fashioned Social Crediter not a Conservative. In that election (72) my husband and I voted Liberal (that was when the BC Liberal party was actually Liberal and not a revamped Social Credit) the same as we will be voting Liberal on Monday (we are now Albertan Liberals). My husband has been working on elections since he was 14 years old (he is now over 70). Usually by this time in an election he has some idea of the results. This one has him stumped.
My ‘Crystal’ says: Conservatives 26%; Liberals 32% ; and the NDP 36% . I think that must factor in the big jump in the polls that Jack Layton will get when this latest ‘Timbit’ becomes more generally known.
And no, we do not fear an NDP government….we’ve survived the Conservatives..so far..haven’t we ? Let’s face it, Jack Layton knows far more about economics than Stephen Harper. True, that really isn’t saying much.
This has been an exciting election.
Omens from the Natural World during this election — how Shakespearian!
Might as well give it a shot.
CON – 127
LIB – 95
NDP – 62
BQ – 23
GREEN – 1
THOSE OF YOU IN SIMCOE-GREY—————— don’t write off Smardenka (LIB) yet.
There’s a sea of red out there on the streets !
Why not?
CPC – 152/39%
NDP – 85/29%
LPC – 50/21%
BQ – 20/7%
Grn – 0/3%
Ind – 1/1%
THE WINNING PROGNOSTICATION
March 26 – the 41st General Election is underway!
March 27 – electorate begins to slip into a coma …
April 16 – St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, Jack Layton picks up some pointers from Danny Williams on how the Anybody-but-Harper performance was orchestrated in 2008. Then he plays the piano. Statistically, the NDP appears in more national news stories on the wire than the liberals for the first time in any recorded election during the Internet era. In two days time, Internet searches for NDP candidates in Canada begin to exceed searches for Liberal and Conservative Candidates.
April 20 – NDP Internet searches clearly surpasses Liberal and Conservative searches by a very large margin, and search volume continues to grow to election day while Liberal and Conservative interest declines.
April 21 – First bit of polling reveals that many respondents have learned to spell NDP. As the news hits, the NDP trend continues. The Liberals and Conservatives scramble for a Push Poll or a more favourable result. Ignatieff signs up at the Royal Conservatory. Harper flips through his Beatles tunes … Four You Blue, Get Back, I Feel Fine, Yesterday
April 22, 23, 25 – Advance voting picks up by around 35% from last election. Driven a lot by early voting calls from all the parties, and fear of missing out on May 2 – people take up the Easter holiday voting chance and make their decisions based on the information to date. Many more early voters choose strategically, rather than going by the colour of the sign! Some snow-birds that always vote Conservative will miss the election.
April 28 – All parties begin to escalate attacks on the NDP. Unfortunately, they miss their chance, as people are in weekend mode.
April 29 – Royal Wedding and the Candidates fail to wish the new couple well for political gain.
April 30 – Garage sale season opens.
May 1 – Pope John Paul II is beatified.
May 2 – Election Day: Conservative voting doesn’t increase even though conservative candidates worked their butts off in this election, posting signs and getting out the vote. Liberal voting, very frightened Liberal voting increases in Alberta, New Brunswick and Saskachewan. The NDP surge increases NDP voting in every province except Nova Scotia. The NDP gains seats in BC, Ontario and in Quebec. Bouyed by illegally-gotten good returns for the NDP, more NDP vote is brought out as the polls close on the East coast. Quebec voter turnout is lower than expected with the Bloq getting hit the most.
RESULTS
Con: 139 Seats
NDP: 64 Seats
Lib: 63 Seats
BQ: 40 Seats
Ind: 2 Seats
May 3 – Harper approaches Ignatieff to see if they can make a deal to run the country without an election for the next 3 years. Duceppe, takes up guitar.
Like I said last night
Liberals: 105
Tories:125
NDP: 65
Bloc: 12
Ind: 1
Harper resigns. Libs and NDP do alliance
RESULTS
Con: 118 seats
Lib: 86 seats
NDP: 78 seats
BQ: 24 seats
Ind: 2 seats
Themes of the Election: Voters wired and strategic. Liberals saved by better ground game than NDP. 400,000 Conservatives sit on their hands (Hookers and Fraud actually matter to them).
Liberal Democrats are created. Realizing he had united the Left/Centre and that the Conservatives will not see power for a decade, Harper blows his brains out with an unregistered gun. Canadians pour into the streets singing “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead, the Witch is Dead.” Conservatives will insist for years Harper is not dead, but just in meetings. Rumoured sightings of him in Brazil will surface along with stories of cloning. A grainy photo of him dressed as a woman acrobat for Cirque du Soleil in Las Vegas will be the last evidence put forth before his memory fades to black.
CPC: 118
NDP: 91
LPC: 69
BQ: 29
IND: 1
CPC: 139
NDP: 81
LIB: 59
BQ: 29
GR: 0
IND: 0
Lockheed Martin – 151
Porter Air – 62
High Jax – 71
Air KeyBec – 22
Green Balloon – 1
WardAir – 1
An offer is made to Porter Air to bank right if the F35 is removed from the taxi-way. The dog fight hinges on the pilot & his jails taking off. Baird becomes pilot (or is that Pilate). Turbulence & aircraft leasing is avoided for 30months.
Lockheed Martin: Changes it’s name to the Party of Conservative Progressive & is purchased by Tim Hortons who have to sell it to Wendy’s due to the 2013 Double Double Scandal
Porter Air : Changes it’s name to the Book of the month club & is purchased by Heather Reisman & do rather well thanks to a clever use of Heather’s Picks
High Jax: Changes it’s name to the Leftist Alliance of Militant Oligarchs (LAMO) nobody notices except MS Chow who quits & goes to live in social housing (again)
Air KeyBec: Changes it’s name to Non un des choix, runs candidates in all 508 ridings in 2014 & comes last in QC but 2nd in RoC
CPC 145
NDP 73
LIB 62
BLoc 27
Ind 1
OK my fearless prediction:
CPC – 132
NDP – 86
LPC – 76
Bloc – 12
Ind – 2
Basing this on polls showing the NDP vote firming up in BC & Quebec – they’re bound to do big in la belle at this stage, and are in good shape to knock out CPC ridings in Quebec city. And really hoping for the death of the Bloc – so probably biased that way. Guessing the Libs will do OK enough in Ontario to avoid being destroyed + polls showing the CPC doesn’t have enough to do any better in ONT then what they’ve got.
Better prediction, there will be a lot of talk about coalitions on May 3rd – and regardless of what Harper said, watch him try and make one with the Liberals.
I am wondering how Harper pulls that one off. After all of the attack ads, and vile he has spewed at the Liberals, how does he do an about face and accept them into cabinet? But I suppose the man has already shown he has no principles, and will do anything that is politically expedient.
However, I still maintain that a more likely scenerio in the event of a Conservative minority, would be for Harper to quickly resign and the Conservative caucus to pick a leader that the other parties can live with. At this point I do not see anyone having the stomach for another election for quite some time. Expect maybe Jack, if he believes that this new level of support is real, and won’t evaporate like it has in the past.
Cons – 129
NDP – 99
Libs – 61
Bloc – 18
Greens – 0
Ind. – 1
Cons – 130
Libs – 75
NDP – 71
Bloc – 30
Ind – 2
CON – 151
NDP – 72
LIB – 59
BQ – 25
IND – 1
CONSERVATIVE 140
LIBERAL 75
NDP 61
BLOC 29
GREEN 1
IND. 2
CONSERVATIVE 140
LIBERAL 75
NDP 62
BLOC 29
GREEN 1
IND. 1
CONS – 138
LIB-36
ND-118
BQ-15
OTHER-1
Conservative Minority with one more constitutional crisis threatened by Harper to try to stay in power after throne speech is defeated. Sun news will recklessly misinform readers on the nature of the crisis. Harper will stay in power anyway for months.
CON 146
LIB 49
NDP 90
BQ 23
The Liberals do not attempt to defeat the government on the throne speech by ensuring that their amendment to the motion of non-confidence is unacceptable to the Bloc. Prime Minister Harper makes sufficient concessions to the Liberals to allow them to not vote against the budget. The Liberals decide not to attempt to defeat the Gov’t and support a Layton gov’t until a new leader is chosen, who must decide whether to take that step which risks sending the Liberals down the path of the British Liberal party in the 1920s.
Con 145
NDP 95
Lib 48
Bloc 20
Unfortunately with the Bloc holding the balance of power. Who do they choose?
Con 129 – 36.6%
NDP 108 – 31.8%
Lib – 55 – 19.8%
BQ – 15 – 6.1%
Grn – 0 – 4.4%
Ind – 1 – 1.3%
Random thoughts: Duceppe loses his own seat
Trudeau wins in Montreal
May loses a squeaker
Cannon loses in PQ
NDP win two in Alberta and two in Saskatchewan
CON 149
NDP 74
LIB 60
BLOC 24
IND 1
My predictions are:
Conservatives: 146
NDP: 87
Liberals: 54
Bloc Quebecois: 20
Independent 1
Conservatives: 156
NDP: 94
Liberals 40:
Bloc: 18
Green: 0
Ind.: 0
Closest to without going over?
I’m gonna go nuts:
CPC: 128
NDP: 83
LPC: 71
BQ: 25
Green: 1
Well, all things aside…
CON – 158 (39%)
LIB – 62 (24%)
NDP – 56 (26%)
BQ – 31 (7%)
OTH – 1 (4%)
One thing I think the polls are not considering is the “none of the above” vote. In recent times this vote has fallen to the Greens, explaining why they seem competitive especially in between elections, but I think a good portion of this vote is now parked under the NDP.
A good number of Canadians generally don’t know or care and have parked their “preference” under the Greens in polls probably because it makes them think they’re rebels or something. This is why “support” for the Greens is not really so much support for them, but “non-support” for the others. While the Green vote has generally collapsed, I’m not convinced that the “don’t give a darn” crowd has likewise dissipated, but instead shifted towards the more “trendy” rebel answer with Jack Layton’s stunning rise in profile.
However, like with the Greens, much of this “vote” likely won’t make the effort to actually do something about it. And because there is a tendency among the apathetic to reflexively oppose whomever forms The Establishment, this I believe accounts for at least some of the rise in the NDP’s numbers, although this is not to take away from what Layton has been able to accomplish.
Essentially the Cons will make their gains from Ontario with a few in the East and BC, taking advantage of the Ontario seat count in the same way that pissed them off so greatly during the Chretien years. The Libs drop everywhere, BC, Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and the East, losing BC and Ontario seats to the Tories, and the others to the NDP. The NDP makes their “breakthrough,” but it will come primarily at the expense of the Bloc as federalist voters align themselves in a viable alternative against the soverignist boogeymen. Aside from a possible pickup from the Tories out West, and a few from the Liberals maybe in Halifax, Toronto, and Winnipeg, their gains are largely neutral to fortunes of the Tories or the Liberals in the end. The “Other” could be almost anyone, but is waaaay more likely to be Arthur, Guergis, or even James Ford in Alberta over Elizabeth May or Adrianne Carr.
Bye-bye Iggy we hardly knew ye.
Cons 155
Dips 69
Libs 57
Bloc 27
I think Tom Hawthorne might have won!
Whoop!
Who Won the prediction ?