04.26.2011 02:24 PM

Poll are for dogs, etc.

In the past hour I did Charles Adler’s radio show, and then I talked to some campaigning friends, and I just got off the line with a journalist pal. Everyone is buzzing about the latest poll, or the latest seat projection, or whatever. After careful reflection, here is the position I have reached:

THE POLLS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP, AND HAVE BEEN FOR WEEKS. THE SEAT PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON CONTRADICTORY POLLS, AND ARE THEREFORE A JOKE.

I accordingly give up. At this point, the only poll that matters – as the old saying goes – is the one May 2.

Partisans, GOTV!

39 Comments

  1. Ron says:

    Just caught you on Adler’s talk show today…real good segment
    it was really great to hear your objectivity on the polls and the NDP surge

  2. AndrewOpala says:

    doh! I guess I should stop working on that algorithm to find sentiment trends on Twitter and Google. … besides we all voted yesterday.

  3. Philippe says:

    Electionprediction.org is always bang-on.

  4. Christian says:

    Alan Gregg has been saying for weeks that polls are next to useless. i just wish the media would check themselves into re-hab and kick the poll-crack habit!

  5. Dan says:

    At this point, I would only raise an eyebrow if a seat projection had Crowfoot going anything other than Conservative.

    Wacky Wacky

  6. artwilliams says:

    I disagree with you on the polls or at least poll trends. It is quite clear that the NDP is on the rise nationally primarily due to a huge increase in Quebec. As a result, the BQ and the Liberals are trending down. Multiple polls have put the NDP in or near second place. I am sure that you and other Liberals are feeling awful right now but these are the facts, Warren.

    Now for seat projections, these models use historical results to predict the future. With a major change in voting patterns, these models break down. Will it be Mulroney 1988, Rae (Ontario) 1991, something or in between? Who knows. It may be 6 seats or it may be 60 seats but unless there is a major mistake made by Layton and the NDP, they will make good gains in this election.

    I do agree with the partisans and GOTV part. If you’re an ordinary player that’s all you can do now.

  7. artwilliams says:

    Just got a dialer call from Iggy telling me to come a Iggy / Chretien rally. I am not sure why we got it. Neither my wife nor I have ever been IDed as a Liberal supporter. Con yes, Lib never. What does this mean? Not sure why you’d want anyone but your supporters an a rally / photo op.

  8. Christopher says:

    Well yes, but what else are we going to talk about? The issues?

  9. Zombie Pierre Trudeau says:

    The Liberals need to come in 3rd place so that they can fire Ignatieff and elect Justin Trudeau.

    • JStanton says:

      … whereas, less than a win for Mr. Harper would leave him with no friends in parliament, a poisoned legacy and possibly criminal charges for election fraud and usurping due process. Certainly, he will be unemployable, except alongside Ezra Levant, or in some obscure neo-con fermentation tank.

      .

      • reformatory says:

        agreed- it’s an improved seat count or BUST for STEVE. Can’t wait to see it happen. The HOUNDS will be out. It’s gonna be GOOD

  10. Sean says:

    Seat projections are horseshit. Samples are too small.

  11. bruce the painter says:

    Don’t parties do their own “internal” polls? I haven’t heard any insiders talking about those lately. The major thrusts seem to be that the Cons will NOT get a majority and the Libs and NDP’s total when added together will constitute a majority.

  12. billg says:

    Ive done some extensive research and, I believe the Harper Conservatives will win the most seats, and, Mr Ignatiefs Liberals will win the 2nd most seats followed very closely by Mr Laytons NDP Party. Not sure how the Bloc will do since Im still banned from setting foot in Quebec..Jerry Barber..the Chaud…its a long story. Now, back to SunTV.

  13. Michael Behiels says:

    If NDP and Libs MPs have enough sets to form a majority gov’t this just might accelerate an informal coalition and later a formal coalition if militants of both parties agree.

    And there will be Qc MPs in caucus and Cabinet, a good development for national unity.

    ONe condition, NDP should agree as condition for coalition not to open constitution to give Qc state special constitutional status.

    • JStanton says:

      …agreed. But let’s forget about any “merger” nonsense – it can never happen. LPC royalty think they are too special, and NDP true believers won’t sell themselves out.

      .

      • reformatory says:

        The art is always in the DEAL. The “WILL” will be there so– in the end the “WAY” will be found. Now lets stop talking about this nonsense– do your part and get out the vote. When Ignatieff has the most amount of seats- we can all meet over coffee and discuss the possibilities.

  14. geoffv says:

    Most people have made up their minds weeks ago. I sincerly doubt that the number of people that have changed their mind is that great. I think the ndp numbers are alot of hot air at this moment. they might pick up a few seats in Quebec, but thats it. The conservatives will get a majority by a few seats. There has not been a real election issue to get the general public fired up to vote in a new gov.
    Compared to other countires in the world, things are not that bad here. Suburban TO will vote more Con members this time.

    • Dennis Wilson says:

      I agree with this assessment.

    • KathrynC says:

      Geoffv
      The CPC base have made their minds up I have no doubt much longer than weeks ago and same for die-hards of all parties. However, I have read it is not uncommon for people to make their minds the day of the election and even at the polling place.

      For centre->left voters it is not unusual to remain undecided between Liberal/NDP until you see how the wind blows against the Conservatives. This time even more so as most despair of a Harper majority and will vote accordingly if we possibly can. I wouldn’t consider these polls as definitive in any way as where asked most polled said they were still somewhat undecided.

      “Compared to other countires in the world, things are not that bad here.”

      Hell of a slogan.

      However I am not persuaded to vote for Mr Harper.

      • geoffv says:

        In western Canada, things are pretty good. It would be a shame for an NDP Government to change it. Look at what happened in Ontario when Bob Rae got elected. I doubt it if Ontario would elect NDP MPs in significant numbers. The election will be decided by Ontario.
        Lets face it, a Liberal or Conservative government will be better for the economy. I think you will find the Cons getting some Liberal voters to support them.
        We will see next week.

  15. artwilliams says:

    http://www.pollingreport.ca/ has all the polls since March 7th, 2011.

    Draw a trend line for each party. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out this is going to be a disaster for the Liberals and a big move upward to Official Opposition for the NDP (unless something big happens to reverse it). You don’t need prediction models to figure this one out.

  16. Scott Tribe says:

    Um Warren:

    Fife on CTV is just going on Twitter about an ANgus-Reid poll just released:

    Angus Reid poll: Cons at 35, NDP 30 and 22 for Libs

    Suddenly Ekos is not an outlier

  17. Al in Cranbrook says:

    Advance votes cast over 2,000,000, up 34% from 2008. On CBC’s news site.

    Hmmm…

  18. Namesake says:

    “nobody I talk to will admit to planning to vote for her” — maybe cuz it’s none of your biz how they intend to vote, for one thing. And I can think of other reasons why they might not want to talk politics with you, esp. if they’re not CPC supporters.

  19. JStanton says:

    … except your prediction model ?

    .

  20. Terry says:

    WK, I assume you’ve seen this … polls aren’t worth much more than chicken entrails these days.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/realitycheck/2011/04/polling-and-the-ndp-surge.html

  21. Craig Chamberlain says:

    Real number time:

    Advance poll numbers are UP 34%+ from what they were in 2008. Silent majority going to the polls?

  22. Patrick Hamilton says:

    Speaking of polls……http://news.aol.ca/2011/04/26/advance-poll-numbers-soar-34/?icid=main%7Ccanada-toshiba%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk3%7C210976

    34% increase…..perhaps the people are rising?…..which direction tho……or was it because of the Good Friday polling day?

  23. Darren K says:

    My dog, Buddy, a Shetland Sheep Dog wishes me to inform you, he is deeply offended being compared to polls, and politicians.

    I’m just sayin…

    DBK

  24. James Bow says:

    Ekos and Angus both agree that the race is tightening between the Conservatives and the NDP. I hope that’s the case, as if so, it will keep us in minority territory while booting the Bloc.

  25. Political Outsider says:

    http://twitter.com/#!/RobertFife

    RobertFife Robert Fife
    Angus Reid poll: Cons at 35, NDP 30 and 22 for Libs. #elxn41
    1 hour ago

  26. JStanton says:

    … because I care so deeply, I decided to do my own model – an average of all post-Harper government polls:

    CON:38.45
    LIB:27.46
    DIP:19.17
    BLO:8.15
    COALITION:54.78

    (source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2011)

    That’s the easiest $100k I never earned.

    .

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