09.26.2011 07:28 AM

What does this analysis mean?

…it means we work even harder, relentlessly, to the very end!

**

According to ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat projection model, the Liberals are likely to win 55 seats – one more than is needed to form a majority government (and with a Liberal acting as the Speaker, the bare minimum to avoid ties in the Ontario legislature). That is a gain of five seats since the last projection…

The Tories continue to shed seats in and around Ontario’s largest city, as three of the four that have flipped to the Liberals were in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area. The other came in Southwestern Ontario, where the New Democrats also lost to the Liberals a seat they had been projected to win last week. This puts the Liberals in a strong position in every part of the province…

Though many races remain close, the Liberals no longer appear at risk of losing the election to the Progressive Conservatives in the province’s tight races. With support sitting at roughly 35 per cent for both parties, the Liberals can likely win as many as 60 seats if all close races go their way.

12 Comments

  1. JenS says:

    Momentum, momentum, momentum. Dalton’s got it. But I’m with you — keep working like you’re way behind!

    Saw the Hudak/Horwath matching voting record ad last night on TV — simple, but effective, I thought.

  2. Michael S says:

    It means that far more is gained awinging an efficient NDP vote to Liberal than it is swinging a PCPO voter. Timmy has reached a top. Horvath needs to be pushed towards a bottom.

    • Michael S says:

      “The Tories continue to shed seats in and around Ontario’s largest city, as three of the four that have flipped to the Liberals were in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area. The other came in Southwestern Ontario, where the New Democrats also lost to the Liberals a seat they had been projected to win last week. This puts the Liberals in a strong position in every part of the province except central Ontario (dominated by the Tories), Northern Ontario (which favours the NDP), and the Hamilton/Niagara region, which is split between the two.” via G&M

  3. A. Cynic says:

    According to this debate – Last question, I get the feeling some kind of CON/NDP Coalition is brewing.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/story/2011/09/22/toronto-candidates.html#.TnwFBGdhkH4.facebook

  4. steve says:

    I am in George the peeper’s riding. Apparently people in Niagara falls love sexting.

  5. Mark McLaughlin says:

    I used to read threehundredeight during the fed election and stopped when his wildly incorrect results came in.

    “What does this analysis mean”

    Probably that it’s about as useful as his federal election predictions. Hey, at least he got a gig at the Globe last time around. I don’t know if they are paying him this time. “Fool me once” and all that.

    • The Doctor says:

      You’re certainly right that some of 308’s individual riding projections in that last federal election seemed way out of whack. I’ve forgotten how close (or not) their final seat projection was though.

  6. Steven says:

    In the Star they had the riding by riding numbers from the huge Forum Poll and I took highlighter and marked who was leading and who was within the margin of error which i think was 5 points and it appears the PC’s are leading and within the margin of error in 63 ridings whereas the liberals were leading and within margin of error in 34 ridings.

    I do not know who to belive now!!!!!!

    • Warren says:

      Believe me. I tell the truth.

      • Mark McLaughlin says:

        … or spin.

        IF you take the forum survey as a good one it still doesn’t take into account the higher likelihood of ACTUALLY voting that the Conservatives win every time.

        The worst enemy of a left wing party is turnout numbers for their supporters. It’s hard to get 18-30 year olds to commit to anything important with consistency.

        All this survey/poll stuff could be hockwash though. Even the pollsters are fighting each other over how reliable they are.

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