— Musings —10.04.2011 04:33 PM
New Ipsos (updated)
What’s it mean? At the risk of repeating myself, if you’re an Ontario Liberal, it means:
Now stop reading this web site! Get out and work!
UPDATE: Ditto this. Get to work, Grits! Never stop! Campaign like we are way, way behind!
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That’s, what, a 30 point swing?
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Really? 30 points?
Just out of curiosity, any trivia types know what the biggest Canadian political point-swing has been? Is this a contender?
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Turner was leading Mulroney at the beginning of the election by quite a bit. Campbell was leading Chretien. Don’t have numbers unfortunately.
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Oh, and go play with the H&K election predictor. If the thin crowds at Timmy’s events are any indication they may have an issue with GOTV, and they may be bleeding votes to the NDP. If so, this is not outside the realm of possibility: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/#/ontario+2011/split/r:35,4:0.38,6:0.28,3:0.3,2:0.03,1:0.01
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Wow
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I love the Hill & Knowlton election predictor. It’s been like crack to me since the writ dropped.
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I know it’s nothing but fuzzy math and witchcraft, but I’m also hooked.
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If the electorate actually gets off their collective duffs on Thursday (and my wish is to see a 70%+ turn out and ya I’m dreaming) we could push the PC seats down below 20.
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Once it’s all over, I’m curious to see if that outrageous pamplet was the final nail in the coffin for the PC campaign.
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The Hudak PC’s have truely and royally dicked themselves this campaign.
One month ago I would never have believed that the consevatives wouldn’t be able to make a race out this election.
I guess there’s no telling what people will do with loaded weapons pointed at thier own feet and mouths will do.
Not to take anything away from Mr. Kinsella’s awesome War Room management but it does seems mostly self inflicted.
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After reading John Ibbitson’s evisceration of the NDP platform in the Globe & Mail today, the best news from this poll IMO is . . . no minority government with the NDP holding balance of power.
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Paul Wells: “There are all kinds of reasons to vote against McGuinty. The National Post‘s Chris Selley produced this handy refresher in case you’ve forgotten some. But if you live in Ontario and your issue is schools, I believe the case for voting Liberal on Thursday is strong.“
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You’ve got my vote:
http://classicquarters.blogspot.com/2011/10/im-votin-liberal.html
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Waiting for Conservative trolls, sorry commenters, to show up questioning the integrity of Ipsos Reid…
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They should be careful. I know one Con did that with Ipsos in the past and he got sued, successfully.
His name?
Stephen Harper.