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W@AL: what will happen if the BC NDP win the coming election

Live from Vancouver!
A W@AL report on the coming B.C. election, and what’ll happen with a B.C. Liberal and B.C. Conservative vote-split – and the Dix Democrats coming up the middle! Shocking footage shows what’ll happen after that!



62 Responses to “W@AL: what will happen if the BC NDP win the coming election”

  1. smelter rat says:

    Bwaaahaaahaaa!

  2. Kev says:

    The NDP in BC, along with the Tories in Ontario, before 2015, would be manna from heaven for federal Liberals.

  3. Olmanhall says:

    Who threw that!! Was that Harpers’ girlfriend Crusty Clark? She should go to jail!!

  4. Gord Tulk says:

    The BClp is going the way of the clp. They have moved too far to the left and are seeing their right of centre base flee to the bccp. The two parties are roughly tied now but by election time – failing any huge gaffes by the conservatives – the LP will be decimated. The question is will the annihilation of the bclp – spurred on by the justified concern of the disaster that a ndp government would be – happen fast enough to deliver the bccp a majority.

    IF the bccp wins it will easily be the most conservative govt in the country and set the stage for a bit of me tooism in neighboring Alberta. Conservative govts in BC AB (wildrose being the only conservative option) and SK and Canada – a great way to move the country forward.

    The common thread in all is the federal conservative machine elements in each of these provinces that formed all of these provincial parties. And the common thread in that is that they all have their roots in the grassroots party structure created by the reform party.

    • The Doctor says:

      The BC Conservative Party will probably accomplish what BC Reform did in 1996s, i.e., ensure that the BC Liberals do not win, and that the NDP does win. But barring an absolute miracle, the BC Conservative Party will not form the next government. I just don’t see how they will have the money, the infrastructure and the get-out-the vote ability to do that. Besides, history is clearly on the NDP’s side here — every time the centre-right vote has split in BC, the NDP has won. With a very heavy heart, that is my prediction for this next one.

      Gord, it’s clear to me that you don’t live in BC — you’re ascribing way too much to the advent of the BC Conservative Party. 95% of its raison d’etre is attributable to one thing: the HST. Period. It’s the HST that has f*cked the BC Liberals, created the BCCP and which will deliver us Premier Adrian Dix. Period.

      • Gord Tulk says:

        “But barring an absolute miracle, the BC Conservative Party will not form the next government. I just don’t see how they will have the money, the infrastructure and the get-out-the vote ability to do that.”

        Take a look at the ndp win in may to see the template. The lpbc is doomed if the right of centre vote sees the bccp as the more realistic governing option. All of those voters fully understand the ndp-up-the-middle effect (I had to live through it when I lived there the last time it happened) and many will be determined to vote strategically to avoid it. If the lpbc starts to poll consistently BEHIND the bccp they will disappear down the bunny hole.

        • The Doctor says:

          Gord, I agree with you that there’s a fair chance that the BC Liberals will get decimated, e.g., lose a lot of seats and possibly be left with very few or even none. And that could mean that they would, after another election cycle, be essentially wiped out, just as happened with the Socreds back in the early 1990s. And thus there would be a new flag of convenience for the BC right-of-centre vote in the form of the BCCP. That all could easily happen.

          But that still isn’t a likely scenario resulting in a BCCP WIN in the NEXT election. It’s far more likely that even if the BCCP picks up a substantial number of seats (remember they’re starting from absolute zero — they have NO MLAs right now), there will still be enough centre-right vote splits to ensure an NDP victory. For your scenario to play out, the BCLP would have to have a popular vote of virtually zero, and that’s extremely unlikely, especially in the Lower Mainland. The BCCP will poll more strongly in the Fraser Valley and the Interior, just like BC Reform did in 1996. This is Groundhog Day stuff.

          • bugzy says:

            The NDp have been in power for 10 years and during that time, businesses were discouraged from setting shop in BC. homes were not selling, the only jobs were big union and the last Premier Clark was investigated for taking bribes to have his sun deck built for a small ransom. The one previos to him was involved with the bingo fiasco in BC as well.

            You may have all hated Gordon Campbell but you have to admit that when he was elected by a very strong mandate, NDP, 2 seats,the province prospered and jobs were created. The business people have not forgotten and they are very strong. The union jobs have all but disappeared and having the NDP as the provincial party is not even a possibility as far as business people are concerned.

            I am not against unions per say. They are necessary to bring good paying jobs to the province but when the unions call on their members to vote for the NDP or else. I take notice of that and tell them screw you. Not a hope in hell. I also worked in a union job and was told to slow down so I didn’t make them all look like a bunch of lazy good for nothing workers. My husband worked in a union shop for 25 years and he would get really upset when he would come home and talk about them at election time in BC, coming to their meetings and telling them who to vote for. He simply told them to get lost. I have lived in BC for over 45 years and I know BC politics fairly well.

            The NDP were always strong on the Island but guess what, there great jobs are long gone for good and no possibility of having those good jobs back. They screwed themselves royally themselves because of their greed about 2 years ago in the city I lived in. Now they are all gone to oil country to make a living because they were to greedy to think of keeping their jobs instead of at the very least have a good wage and being home with their families and likely not having to defaulti on their mortgages.

    • smelter rat says:

      Utter nonsense. The BCLP is going to be decimated becasue of piss poor policies, financial mismanagment and scandal. The BCCP is populated by a bunch of grey haired old white guys. I’ll be shocked if they make Opposition.

    • Dan says:

      Are you kidding me? The Liberal party has never been more right-wing across the country. BC Liberals deregulated and slashed services. Any more conservative and they would be the conservative party.

      The reason they lose is the same reason the Liberal party is failing around the country: they’ve picked policies that are transferring more wealth from the middle class to their wealthy donors, and now there’s no middle class left to vote for them.

      • The Doctor says:

        “The reason they lose is the same reason the Liberal party is failing around the country: they’ve picked policies that are transferring more wealth from the middle class to their wealthy donors, ”

        Such as . . . their carbon tax?

        • Dan says:

          That never got passed.

          I’m thinking more about the slashing of services in the 90s, along with the tax giveaways to corporations. By the time they realized they destroyed their usual constituencies, they were dead in the water. I don’t think they realize what they’ve done.

          • Matt says:

            Dan, I’m a little unclear about your post. The carbon tax “that never got passed”? The Carbon tax was indeed passed by the BC legislature in May 2008 under Bill 37 Carbon Tax Act. I strongly disagree with the assessment of the BC Liberals as an ideologically right wing party. To be sure, the BC Liberals are a coalition of federal Liberals and Tories but do not discount the influence of the progressive forces within that coalition. The carbon tax exemplifies this. From a strategic perspective, it was brilliant move on Campbell’s part to impose the carbon tax. Taking leadership on the environmental file forced the BC NDP to either concede the environmental issue to the Liberals or come out against the tax in the 2009 election. Strikingly, the ‘socially progressive’ New Democrats chose the latter route and made an anti-tax populist pitch in the election. While this is somewhat trite to observe, the major strategic blunder made by Campell was a failure to consider the electoral implications of the introduction of the HST. The combination of both new taxes within such a short time frame opened up considerable ideological space for the BC Conservatives.

      • Gord Tulk says:

        The liberal party of BC has always been to the right of the rest of the canadian liberal archipelago – that’s not news. It is how they have maintained themselves as the sane option to the ultra-left BCndp – crowding out any option that was further to the right. but within the bclp the current leader is to the left of the centre of the party – too close for comfort for the right wing of the party (sound familiar federal liberals?) and the party is disintegrating as I type this. (same goes for the Abpc party which is essentially the centrist (or centre left) party of that province.)

      • Gord Tulk says:

        And the LPc has moved far to the left leaving the likes of Manley and McKenna on the outside looking in. Outside of the Trudeau era the lpc has never been as far to the left of the Canadian center than it is today – and it could be argued that it is even further left than that.

        • dave says:

          I have out my Political Spectrum Instrument (my PSI), and I am keeping track of which party is left-of-centre (loc), which is right-of-right-of-centre (roroc), (which is left-of-just-right-of -centre(lojroc), and which is left-of-left (lol).

          (Aaaugh..you all knew that last one was coming…din’cha!
          Yeah…you did.)

        • Dan says:

          How does Trudeau spend 15 years in power if he hadn’t found the center of Canadian politics for an entire generation?

      • bugzy says:

        And where are you from Dan? How old are you? Do you ever tell the truth or really know what the truth is? It doesn’t appear so & probably not. You sound like a liar and a bully and this is not something I would be bragging about. Go slither under your slimy rock.

        As for the carbon tax, its working fine and at least the liberals have the understanding of climate change and are doing something about it instead of slabbing their lips while doing nothing.

        • Gord Tulk says:

          If the bccp does win sayonara to the carbon tax. Here’s hoping…

        • Dan says:

          Just because you’re uncomfortable with what I’m saying doesn’t make it a lie. There’s a reason why the Liberal party is getting obliterated around the country, and it’s directly related to the crumbling of the middle class. Considering that Chretien and Martin oversaw that transfer of wealth, the blame falls squarely on their shoulders.

          • Gord Tulk says:

            Don’t blame the woes of the lpc on what you percieve to be an external happening (the middle class isn’t “crumbling”) – it is 100% an internal issue.

  5. Roger says:

    I can see LK’s hand in that! Nice One! Can he do that to Gord too?

  6. Patrick says:

    You’re quite the expert on politics in provinces where you don’t reside there Gord. It’s great that we can count on your expert analysis before every provincial election.

    Sure the BCCP might gain votes from people who are concerned over the prospect of an NDP government but how many people will simply park their vote with the BCLP because they don’t want to end up with the most socially conservative government in Canada?

    • The Doctor says:

      The fact is that most voters in BC have no idea what the BCCP stands for. Except that they opposed the HST. As did the NDP. The BCCP right now is a classic protest party: a blank slate/tabla rasa onto which certain voters project whatever they like.

      • Gord Tulk says:

        It’s all right here:

        http://bcconservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/BCCP_Policy_adopted_Sept_24_2011_final.pdf

        The BClp and CLP only wish there policy books were as succinct and well thought out.

        • The Doctor says:

          Gord, that document could say that Jesus Christ is coming next month in a Pink Flying Saucer, and practically nobody in BC would know or notice. I didn’t say they don’t have policies. Read my goddamn post before posting a reply. What I said was that practically nobody knows what their policies are. They don’t care. The single biggest reason people in BC have gravitated towards the BC Conservatives is (1) the HST was hated intensely and (2) the BC Conservative Party and several of its prominent leaders and founders were front and centre in the anti-HST campaign.

          • Gord Tulk says:

            That’s what they said about true CPC before they won their first mandate. But as anyone involved in the campaign will tell you, the policy book was essential in keeping all of the candidates on message and deflecting/defeating “scary” attacks. And those will surely come for the bccp. And when it does that book will be invaluable.

            And yes I read your post but presumed that you were ignorant of the fact that they had a coherent policy book. My mistake.

        • frmr disgruntled Con now happy Lib says:

          To bad your messiah wasnt as well informed on the issue of human sexuality, Mr Tulk…..

          .http://bcblue.wordpress.com/2011/05/12/bc-conservative-leader-cummins-dead-in-the-water-over-homosexuality-as-choice-comment/

          • Gord Tulk says:

            There is nothing wrong with his comment. That sexual preference is not 100% genetic is a logical argument. And those lobbyists for the gl&bs should think twice before insisting that it is 100% genetic.

            And he’s not my “messiah”. The fortunes of the bccp rely on two things:
            1. That the bclp remains further to the left than it should be.
            2. That the bccp presents itself as a credible alternative.

          • scot says:

            Are you a fucking “gay expert” too Gord? Stick to insurance.

    • Gord Tulk says:

      I lived in BC for seven years. And have several politically very well connected friends there.

      The hst debacle was just the worst of many screwups. And the winning of the leadership by a far Left member is what’s really causing the collapse. (and a similar phenom is likely in AB).

      • Olmanhall says:

        Gord, if you think Christy Clark and Allison Redford are far left you are really out of touch or a funded troll. Anyone who follows BC polotics knows smelter rats’ previous reply says it all. More emphasis should be placed on scandal though, especialy the theft of BC Rail.

        • Gord Tulk says:

          They are both to the far left of their respective parties (Redford is way out on the itty bitty fringes – beholden to the health and education unions for her leadership win).

        • Gord Tulk says:

          And as for the corruption and hst issues she and her party could put it behind them if they had moved right not left. But instead they abandoned their base and now their base is looking for another option.

          • The Doctor says:

            Gord, that assumes that there is/was a single, identifiable “base” at the heart of the BC Liberal Party. There isn’t, and there never was. The BC Liberal Party was a flag of convenience for a very large tent coalition, consisting of ex-Socreds, federal Liberals, federal Red Tories, federal Blue Tories, free-enterprisers, and other assorted people, all of whom only shared one thing in common: disdain for the NDP. It was and is a classic big-tent party, and like all big-tent parties it is prone to instability, infighting and having its lunch eaten by a more ideologically “pure” and consistent competitor such as the BCCP.

          • Gord Tulk says:

            I agree with those comments doctor, but all parties have political philosophical center regardless of how big a tent it may try to be. With Christie the party has selected a leader well to the left of that centre.

      • Jan says:

        If Cristy Clark is far left I’m Snow White. Stick to Alberta politics Gord, you haven’t clue about B.C.

        • The Doctor says:

          Christy Clark is a populist. That’s really her defining characteristic. I agree that calling her a leftie is ludicrous. If Christy Clark is “far left”, then so is about 80% of the population.

        • Gord Tulk says:

          Of the three leadership candidates with a chance of winning Clark was the furthest left (as was Redford). My far left comments are in the context of the bclp (and ABPCp) not the population as a whole.

      • Reality Bites says:

        When you say well connected, it’s safe to assume you’re not referring to their synapses.

  7. allegra fortissima says:

    Men smell funny, especially when they’re on fire

  8. Darren K says:

    I lived and operated a business during the last reign of the NDP. I vowed that I would leave the province if it happened again.

    I did leave the province – another reason about a horrible wife…. well you get the picture.

    Business will depart, It will be like 1976 in Montreal and the Parti Quebecois. Hell, even the bank of Montreal left Quebec then.

    It will return BC to a big have not province.

    Christy’s not so bad. She smokes too much, but other than that, she’s a good leader.

    • The Doctor says:

      I agree the last NDP administration had a decidedly negative impact on business and capital formation in BC. It was, however, more subtle than what happened in Quebec in 1976ff. It was more insidious than dramatic.

      • It was VERY dramatic. We still don`t have the head offices we lost. Just the very threat of another NDP Government is what holds this province back. BUt then, it was very good for Alberta – so can`t be all bad.

      • dave says:

        During the 1990′s I lived and worked here in Northeast BC, the oil (and gas) patch.
        Since 2001, BC Lib pr has all been that the 1990′s were a dark decade, and people were having a hard time of it, and Alberta had a free enterprise regime, and every one should go there.
        Here in Northeast BC, tho, the economy just kept humming along, lots of outsiders coming to make a buck, lots of jobs, more hustle and bustle evey six months…sort of like Alberta.
        How could that be? We had an NDP government, yet we were humming like free enterprise Alberta.
        How can that be?
        Surely the BCLib pr couldn’t be fudging a little bit, could it?

        • Gord Tulk says:

          Compared to AB in the nineties NE BC wasn’t that busy. That changed under Campbell when the O&g regs and royalty rates were made arguably more competitive than abs.

          That and they hit some huge new gas fields:

          Shale gas is produced from the siliceous shale of the Horn River Formation in north-eastern British Columbia, in the Greater Sierra field, north of Fort Nelson. Horizontal drilling and fracturing techniques are used to extract the gas from the low permeability shales.[4] The original-gas-in-place volumes are estimated to be up to 500 Tcf [5], making it the third largest North American natural gas accumulation discovered prior to 2010[6]. Companies involved in the extraction of natural gas from the Horn River Shale include EnCana, Apache, EOG, Stone Mountain Resources, Exxon, Quicksilver Resources, Nexen and Devon Energy.

          (wiki)

      • Darren K says:

        Guys,

        During Gordon Campbell’s first few weeks, he laid off hundreds of Provincial employees. He also hired 200 PST auditors. I got audited, and while I had made a mistake, I did receive a letter telling me that each of the new auditors had a target audit of $37K. I got hit for $43K. Another company who’s audit came to my address got hit for about $43.5K. The audits were later found unconstitutional. No money was returned.

        I’m no fan of Gordo – I know Warren is. That was then. Christie is now. The NDP has no vision for business. Remember the $500 Million ferries that they abandoned for less than $20 million. Bingogate, etc.

        No, give Christie a chance

  9. Shaun says:

    Brought to you by the f/x guys at Sun News Network … but with greater production value.

  10. bigcitylib says:

    I find myself indifferent to the fate of the B.C. Libs, who for years have been telling people they’re not anything like the Federal Libs. They’re basically the Socreds minus the Zalmoids, who have recoalesced as BC Tories. As the BC NDP have reembraced their Green Wing rather than selling out to their Unionistas,more power to them.

    PS. If I were a BC Lib I would go after this kook

    http://bcblue.wordpress.com/

    …who apparently has a place in the BC-Con hierarchy. The Loony is strong in these people, and this fact can surely be exploited.

  11. Gwynn says:

    WARREN … OT…. HAVE YOU READ BELINDA STRONACH’S G&M OPINION PIECE ENTITLED: “Politics as a tour of duty, not a career”…. while in Vancouver?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/politics-as-a-tour-of-duty-not-a-career/article2285467/

    I’m sure many would appreciate your comments.

    • Gord Tulk says:

      That she is in favour of term limits on mps becoming unilaterally lpc policy – I’m all for it. Who would the party choose for leader under those circumstances?

      In the absence of a series of electoral levels as they have in the US – elected congress, elected senate, and an elected president (as well as a well-beaten path for governors to be POTUS) the idea is a complete non-starter.

      (I was surprised at the quality of her writing – she didn’t speak that well when she flew the conservative flag)

      • bugzy says:

        Turk, your giving your political bias away so why would we even listen to you or read your posts. Your party has never done well in BC politics and simply because of people such as yourselves, spreading lies, bulling and much worse.Save your monies and all of you move to redneck country where even a clown in the corn field would become premier of Alberta.. Unless you have lived there worked there and raised a family there, you have absolutely no idea at all what BC politics are.

        Its plain to see that Gord Turk is campaigning for the BC CONS. Even a child would recognize that. Save your money and your time. Those damn Cons are nothing but big trouble . They lie, they bully and they are nothing but trouble. and they can slither under their slimy rocks again. Keep your dirty paws off of my province.

  12. Pete says:

    That is because when she was a Tory she had to use their dictionary which as we all know is very linited.

  13. TheSilentObserver says:

    So now you’re on Campbell/Clark’s side Warren? Even when I was a lib I failed to distinguish their basic ideology from Harper’s. It both fustrates and amuses me how Rightist/Centrist Canada is constantly having some sort of conniption about the thought of an NDP government as the Tories take a wrecking ball to the Canada me and all my Canadian born relatives know and love. Certainly, the grits have done piss all to offer something more progressive and inspiring on the federal level, hence my jumping ship to a leaderless party which, few can deny, has performed less than spectacularly since Layton’s passing

  14. jon evan says:

    The appointment of Joe Trasolini (who was Christy Clark’s biggest supporter and who previously chaired her first campaign) as the NDP candidate for the upcoming Port Moody-Coquitlam by-election speaks clearly of the disintegration of the BCLP coalition with an exodus of its left to the NDP. More will follow. Christy Clark ran for the wrong party. She would have been a better choice for the NDP as a Carol James replacement and then going to an election she would have won big time!

    With the dissolution of her party clearly happening the time is ripe now for the other wing of her party to come to their senses. The right faction of BCLP need to join the BCCP and bring balance to the province to allow a more realistic two party election. That is the sensible option for the betterment of the province is my appeal to the conservative members of Christy Clark’s disintegrating party!

  15. smelter rat says:

    Ya see, folks, this is what happens when you go off your meds.

  16. smelter rat says:

    I rest my case.

  17. Gwynn says:

    You have no “case”… you are a (smelter) rat who smelts defeat….!

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