04.23.2012 12:39 PM

Wild-eyed (not Wildrose) prediction: Redford remains Premier

Wildrose has been dropping sharply since the bozone layer eruptions began.  The PCs now own Edmonton, and the huge Wildrose lead in Calgary has vanished.  Rural Alberta is rural Alberta: WCC, blah blah blah.

Contrary to what Canada’s conservative-dominated media pundits may tell you, (a) the PCs have run a solid campaign under Stephen Carter (he of Nenshi fame) (b) the homophobic, racist stuff has hurt Wildrose and (c) there has been a lot of vote moving around in the past few days, just as Tom Flanagan wrote about, presciently, in respect of the 2004 federal vote.  It matters.

Seats?  Dunno; things are too, er, wild right now.  But I don’t see a Wildrose majority at all.  If Redford can make some kind of a deal with the few Liberals and New Democrats elected, she’ll be Premier at this time next week.

Thank the Lord, etc.


  1. Marjie - in Hunspergerville says:

    From your lips to the cosmos’ ears! I am so hoping this prediction is the case. Are there any exit polls that you have been following. I have the same feeling though. Only the extremists in the area could possibly support my candidate. I can actually stomach a PC government here as the Wildrose has loured away the idiot fringe and you are left with your average fiscal conservative flavour. A lot right of my normal vote but still better than some fairy-tale believing homophobe.

  2. Erik says:

    Maybe I’m just in a pessimistic mood today, but I don’t see it happening. I think WRP will win a small but stable majority, while the NDP will lose seats and the Liberals will be shut out because their votes will go the the PCs in a desperate but futile attempt to stop Danielle Smith.

  3. Chuck says:

    I distruct general polling when so many ridings (in Edmonton, but I understand also in Calgary) are multi-party races, so I have no idea whether you are correct or not – I certainly hope your optimism is justified. But I wanted to respond to the idea of Redford cutting a deal with either Liberals or NDP.

    First off, that sort of desperate coalition would be the worst thing in the long run that Redford could possibly do. In addition to infuriating Albertans (remember how Harper used the threat of just such a coalition to damn the federal Liberals? – That tactic worked out here because it is seen as what it is – self-serving and anti-democratic), the real problem is that Sherman is at best a loose cannon and at worst an iconoclastic loon who the PC’s cannot possibly work with, while the NDP and the PC’s are very far apart. The only party Redford could possibly work with would be the Alberta Party, and they will win 2 seats at best.

    Second, moving the PC’s further to the left will open up the moderate right and even if Redford can cling to power a little longer, her base will abandon her. That will be the end of the PC’s – period.

    Finally, what is really needed is to let the WRP occupy the hard right, clean house and consolidate the middle (whether under the banner of the PC’s, the Alberta Party or the Liberals depends entirely on the damage being done to brands tonight and whether Alberta Party manages a bit of a breakthrough, and leave the NDP out on the left. In that scenario, it will not be long before the WRP join WCC and Socreds and other hard right options in the dustbin. But absent that, and if Smith is smart and moves the WRP towards the centre, we could be looking at a new “big tent” being formed out here.

  4. Neil says:

    48 seats for the WRP.
    It is a beautiful day in Alberta, people are not afraid of change on a day like today.
    Plus Warren, I have to say, you are wrong about the PC campaign, it has been awfull, it reminds my of any one of Paul Martins campaigns no vision, no hope and they have ran from the PC record just as much as Martin did from the Liberal record. They were all about change but forgot they had some good things in the legacy to defend.

  5. kitt says:

    My husband lined up at the clinic this morning to see his doctor and there were about 20 plus people in the line bashing the Stinkweed, er Wildrose party. Calgary AM is wonderful today 🙂

  6. ryan m. says:

    But Warren, aren’t coalitions illegal and a subversion of the wishes of the people and the democratic process??!!

  7. RP. says:

    Not completely out of the question!

  8. Dan says:

    What are the PCs going to do next election, when Wildrose recruits a better slate of candidates and runs a more disciplined campaign, and they’re no longer able to play up the “scary” and “leadership” cards on a rival party that they more or less agree with on every issue of significance?

    While you’re playing up whatever tactics you can to win the battle, the PCs are losing the war. Ready to suffer the same fate as the Federal Liberal party just under 10 years ago.

  9. Tiger says:

    I predict a Wildrose majority — I think they have a more efficient vote, so even if they only win by a couple of points, lots of suburban seats can fall their way.

  10. Ted B says:

    In a way, it would be good for Wild Rose to win today.

    When Harper lost in 2004, he beat back all of the same bunch into silence and obeissance. He instilled an extremely anti-democratic muzzle on his candidates to the point where they refused to attend debates, answer questions put them by the public or the media, not even putting themselves into positions where there was ever a risk of even facing an unscripted question from the public.

    They are all still there, with the same vile opinions, just quietly working away in the background and out of the spotlight, ever serving Harper instead of their constituents. And this was accomplished because Harper lost in 2004 and then because he didn’t win a majority in 2006 or 2008.

    These yahoos will not feel beholden to Smith if they win on their first time out. They will not feel the need or pressure to be silent if they win a majority.

    Viruses are always less dangerous to the patient if you can see them and know what and where they are.

  11. Curt says:

    I predict Allison doesn’t win her seat here in Calgary Elbow.

  12. Darren says:

    I dunno. There was a front page story late last week about the Alberta Federation of Labour running an anti-WR robocall campaign. That kind of stuff tends to generate a backlash.
    For the last Alberta and federal elections, the predictions tended to greatly under-estimate the political right. Neither Harper nor Stelmach were predicted to get the kind of wins they ended up achieving and I think the same might hold true for the WR this time around. I guess we’ll know later tonight. Fun stuff, though.

  13. Realist says:

    Wish you were right, but I’m sensing whistling in the dark.

  14. I want to believe you, Warren, but I’ve little faith in my home province.

  15. CraigD says:

    My prediction is: Wildrose will win a decisive majority. It won’t even be close. The Alberta PCs are finished. As with the most recent Toronto municipal election. And the past few federal elections, the Canadian left will have no idea why these results are happening.

  16. Geoff says:

    Sorry Warren
    Wild rose majority 62 seats.
    I called the fed cons winning their majority, this election will be no different. Any other predictions?

  17. Greg from Calgary says:

    Last year during the federal election my daughters school had a vote with all the parties on the ballot. The kids got together and elected the communists in order to piss off the teachers. I bet the teachers were thinking “This is a good opportunity to teach kids about democracy” and I bet the kids were thinking “I bet this is a good opportunity to be smart asses.”

  18. Craig says:

    I am watching the election results on Global Edmonton & CBC Edmonton. So far –

    PCs – 62 seats
    WRP – 17 seats
    NDP – 4
    Liberals – 4

    Still too early, but it looks like the PCs will form another majority government. Those pollsters who predicted a “Wildrose majority government” are looking like fools.

  19. Sean Maguire says:

    When you’re right, you’re right. Wowzers.

  20. Jim Hanna says:

    Wow..I very, very nearly posted in disagreement with Warren this morning. Props, you called it.

    As I’ve tweeted, Alberta: making fools of pollsters and pundits since 1905.

  21. ottawacon says:

    Wow – you were about as close as anyone I saw, and you were still off by a mile. That vote moved massively over the past 4 days…

  22. Tim says:

    Mouth meet crow

  23. nez1 says:

    Well, I am surprised–pleasantly so. Now, if Byfield loses, my night will be complete. By the way, born and raised in Alberta. Have even voted PC once. Hey–I was 18 at the time. Mea culpa…

  24. Conservative Socialist says:

    The PCs are elected and leading in 62 ridings.

    Wild rose 17.

    Liberals lost a big share of their votes to the PCs.

    Everybody has been proven wrong.

    The one party state of Alberta continues.

  25. Iris Mclean says:

    Congrats to Albertans! That must be a sweet relief to a lot of folks out there.

  26. Michael S says:

    Too bad you hedged, WK, otherwise that dark smelly stuff your oppo is now eating woudn’t be crow.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *