“Warren Kinsella's book, ‘Fight the Right: A Manual for Surviving the Coming Conservative Apocalypse,’ is of vital importance for American conservatives and other right-leaning individuals to read, learn and understand.”

- The Washington Times

“One of the best books of the year.”

- The Hill Times

“Justin Trudeau’s speech followed Mr. Kinsella’s playbook on beating conservatives chapter and verse...[He followed] the central theme of the Kinsella narrative: “Take back values. That’s what progressives need to do.”

- National Post

“[Kinsella] is a master when it comes to spinning and political planning...”

- George Stroumboulopoulos, CBC TV

“Kinsella pulls no punches in Fight The Right...Fight the Right accomplishes what it sets out to do – provide readers with a glimpse into the kinds of strategies that have made Conservatives successful and lay out a credible roadmap for progressive forces to regain power.”

- Elizabeth Thompson, iPolitics

“[Kinsella] deserves credit for writing this book, period... he is absolutely on the money...[Fight The Right] is well worth picking up.”

- Huffington Post

“Run, don't walk, to get this amazing book.”

- Mike Duncan, Classical 96 radio

“Fight the Right is very interesting and - for conservatives - very provocative.”

- Former Ontario Conservative leader John Tory

“His new book is great! All of his books are great!”

- Tommy Schnurmacher, CJAD

“I absolutely recommend this book.”

- Paul Wells, Maclean’s

“Kinsella puts the Left on the right track with new book!”

- Calgary Herald


Ontario election: coming soon? (updated)

Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak just announced that he won’t support the wage freeze bill. So, does that mean an election is going to happen, even though a year hasn’t gone by since the last one? Hudak and NDP leader Andrea Horwath are blasé about that, apparently.

They shouldn’t be. If an election is held anytime soon, we will win. And, as I said to a Citizen reporter last night, Dalton McGuinty is consistently underestimated by the media and his opponents.

You’d think they’d know better, by now. But they don’t.

UPDATE: Some Lib commenters are worried. I like it when we are worried – I like it when we take our opponents seriously. Thus, my ten-point answer on why we will win.

1. The wage freeze, and efforts to contain the fiscal problem, are popular with voters. They know it’s necessary.
2. Hudak is very unpopular. His party is a rural rump – no urban strength any more. He is a huge asset for us.
3. Horwath remains an unknown. Detested by her own caucus. NDP dropping federally. She stands for nothing – nothing.
4. Federal Liberal leadership race will boost the Liberal brand in Ontario – it has already started, in fact.
5. McGuinty is consistently underestimated by his opponents. Try as they might, Horwath and Hudak cannot get anyone to hate him.
6. We have the biggest political machine in Ontario. It is well-funded, well-organized and solidly behind McGuinty.
7. Our team, which won in 2003, 2007 and 2011, has remained intact and united. It has grown, in fact.
8. No so-called “scandal” has implicated a sitting Liberal in any way, shape or form. Voters are skeptical of scandalmongering (eg. Harper won majority after being found guilty of contempt).
9. Campaign from the left, govern from the right. Chretien did that in similar fiscal circumstances. Didn’t hurt him, at all, did it?
10. The biggie: Horwath and Hudak will be pushing for an election a few months after the last one. Voters, and our team, will shred them for it.



42 Responses to “Ontario election: coming soon? (updated)”

  1. Mr. Murdoch esq. says:

    Man-o-man, I wish I was a confident as you. If there is an election it seems to me it will be a hell of a fight-using prison rules. I don’t know a single person who is not pissed off at Dalton. On the other hand I only know 7 people and 6 of them are Ford supporters.

  2. Skinny Dipper says:

    I do think that there will be an election within six months. Hudak and the Conservatives will pull the plug if or when the Liberals present the next budget. The only way it will happen sooner is if McGuinty decides to call an election earlier so as to trip up the Conservatives and NDP. I cannot see the NDP supporting the next budget as this would represent a de-facto support of the Liberal labour policies.

    Hudak and the Conservatives need to present a consistent economic platform with studying increasing highway speeds for good measure. The latter would show that they are the opposite of McGuinty nanny-statists.

    Andrea Horwath and the NDP need to demonstrate middle-of-the-road policies with a few progressive items thrown in to distinguish themselves from the Liberals. A promise of fair labour negotiations will get support away from the Liberals to the NDP.

    Both the Conservatives and NDP can attack the Liberals on their wasteful spending–eHealth, Ornge, power-plant cancellation and moving fees, low capacity energy production agreements.

    The Liberals are in a difficult position, if they attack the Conservatives for wanting to obliterate public services, then voters can choose the NDP. If they attack the NDP, then voters can move to the Conservatives.

  3. Dan F says:

    I’m not sure if its a winning message, but the Premier seems to have indicated that he is getting ready to retire as soon as he has secured a majority, so the message would be: “If you want to get rid of him, vote for him!”

    There is also the dynamic of the federal leadership race taking place at the same time as a provincial election. Polls would seem to indicate that Mr. Trudeau helps to boost the Liberal brand in the mind of the general public. If people see him as the face of the party, rather then the Premier, it might have an impact as well…

    • Warren says:

      Factors in our favour:

      1. The wage freeze, and efforts to contain the fiscal problem, are popular with voters.
      2. Hudak is very unpopular. His party is a rural rump – no urban strength any more.
      3. Horwath remains an unknown. Detested by her own caucus. NDP dropping federally.
      4. Federal Liberal leadership race will boost Lib brand in Ontario – has already started, in fact.
      5. McGuinty is consistently underestimated by his opponents. Try as they might, Horwath and Hudak cannot get anyone to hate him.
      6. We have the biggest political machine in Ontario. It is well-funded, well-organized and solidly behind McGuinty.
      7. Our team, which won in 2003, 2007 and 2011, has remained intact and united.
      8. No so-called “scandal” has implicated a sitting Liberal in any way, shape or form. Voters are skeptical of scandalmongering (eg. Harper won majority after being found guilty of contempt).
      9. Campaign from the left, govern from the right. Chretien did that in similar fiscal circumstances. Didn’t hurt him, at all.
      10. The biggie: Horwath and Hudak will be pushing for an election a few months after the last one. Voters will shred them for it.

  4. Michael says:

    Is there any way for the Liberals to win seats in rural Ontario. And if so how?

  5. Ian says:

    I wonder where teacher/civil servant rancour will fit into the next election. Teachers represent a major part of the body politic and from the sounds of things, that vote will land ANYWHERE other than the big red machine. Could we see vote-splitting happening within the centre-left? Would it be enough for Timmy TwoCents to shamble up the middle to victory?

    • Cath says:

      the biggest myth out there is that teachers favour the one party over another. Their unions might, but individual educators when in that voting booth often see that much differently.

  6. Ian says:

    Well, not anywhere – the teacher vote will land in the NDP’s lap. Just wanted to clarify!

  7. Dan says:

    “Campaign from the left, govern from the right. Chretien did that in similar fiscal circumstances. Didn’t hurt him, at all, did it?”

    Ask Paul Martin, Stephane Dion, Michael Ignatieff, etc.

    • Dan F says:

      Martin and Iggy campaigned from the right, that was part of the problem.

      • Pat says:

        Iggy acted like he was on the right, presented a left platform (NDP-lite, if you will) and got smoked for it.

        • Kelly says:

          Naw, I campaigned for Terry Duguid in Winnipeg South. People didn’t vote for us because they thought Ignatieff was a snob — even though they liked Terry personally — of course, who wouldn’t. Policy wasn’t even an issue in that riding. Too many people just didn’t like Ignatieff; he simply rubbed them the wrong way.

          Hence, the Harper and Mulcair worry over Trudeau and Garneau. They are both about 1,000 times more likable than Grumpy and Crabby.

      • Dan says:

        Martin campaigned to the left. Remember his last minute claims that we were JUST about to get action on Kyoto, and child care? Awww man, if only the Liberals had 13 years in power, that 13th year is the charm!

  8. Glen says:

    I agree that he’s often underestimated by media and opponents, but here on the street there are LOTS of people who hate McGuinty. But we are also smart enough to realize that he’s the best of a bad group.

    Exactly like the situation with Harper.

    It’s not that we’re against scandalmongering, it’s that we know there is way more uncertainty with the alternative.

  9. Philippe says:

    He has my vote. I’m very-much in favor of the wage-freeze. Anyone who doesn’t realize we need hard-core belt-tightening to stabilize the economy is living in lala-land.

      • blueworld says:

        The wage freeze is not the issue. Many of the unions have agreed to the wage freeze in fact may have even proposed it.

        What irks people is McLiar legislating against people’s rights and refusing to repsect the collective bargaining process.

        What also irks people is the fact that he does not lead by example and only tightens the belt of the workers. Never MPP’s or Bay street types.

        What also irks people is the waste such as e-health and the power plant fiacso. The money wasted there sure would come in handy now.

        A big reason why McGuinty won last time was the troops on the ground helping out A.K.A. “Working Families”. This group will not be knocking on doors for him this time around.

        The only thing he has working for him right now- is the disgruntled right-wing vote that he may pick up. The question is- is that enough to help with all the bleeding of the proressive votes that will be shed. The other thing he has going for him is the fact that Hudak is a doofus and not respected. Trust me, If a respected leader was in place for the Ontario PC’s – he would be toast.

        Last point- Don’t underestimate Horwath’s support. She will surprize and she is underestimated.

        Don’t count any chickens for McGuinty just yet– if an election is truly in the midst and not just grandstanding- then the chickens may indeed come home to roost.

        I know tons, and I mean tons of liberals and ordinary working class Ontarians that are fed up and just waiting for the chance to try another leader. That leader could be Christine Elliot, if the Tories get their act together. But don’t be so sure that they won’t opt for a minority Horwath or Hudak. Harper was not liked either but they gave him a small does of power to start and when they warmed up enought hen he got his majority. The same can heppen with Ontario- tjey can start off with a luke warm mandate for Hudak and if he does well- then he can earn his majority that way.

        Either way– I’m not alone when I say- McGuinty’s day’s are numbered.

        It didn’t have to be that way but as the old sayin goes
        “Power corrupts absolutely”

        The good news is that McGuinty can always fall back on being appointed to XYZ board or Commision. He can also always apply to be the director of the TCDSB.

        • Tim says:

          Horwath and the NDP can only offer a true alternative to austerity if they commit to creating a made in Ontario income tax system that excludes TFSA’s, RRSP’s etc. There is simply no other way to “enhance revenue” in the current federal provincial fiscal framework other than increasing the HST to 15%. A separate Ontario income tax system proposal would be highly risky politically and would very much seem to be an act of anti national unity. Basically this is the same type of stuff that the Wildrose gets in trouble for in Alberta(Seperate income tax system, kickout the RCMP). Remember Quebec is the only province with its own income tax system. Eves talked about this type of stuff towards the end of his government and was probably one of the reasons he went to defeat although I suspect the writing was already on the wall. Short of proposing some type of radical change in the provincial tax system a future prospective NDP government is setting themselves up for the Social Contract part 2 and Andrea Days.

          I happen to suspect the NDP would put the biggest smile in the world on Warren’s face if they allowed to themselves to be associated with Alberta Wildrose and called for an Ontario “Firewall” against the forces on Harper Conservatism. On the other hand perhaps we need to have a serious conversation about merging the OPP into the RCMP if it would save money which many people tell me it would not.

      • Dan says:

        You guys are going to be in big trouble when the Conservatives campaign on more of that. There isn’t enough room for two austerity parties.

    • Nick H says:

      Lets see that balanced with some revenue enhancing measures then. Craft a budget that actually tough choices.

      Remember the Drummond Report that Liberals pretended to take really serious? It specifically said that these kinds of wage freezes were just gimmicks that look good to voters. At the end of the day arbitrators will retroactively raise wages in the near future to compensate for the freeze right now. Even from a fiscally conservative perspective these wage freezes accomplish nothing. They are highly visible to voters and that is the only reason they are enacted, from a policy perspective they don’t accomplish anything.

      An actually serious budget would recognize that public sector wages over the last decade have barely tracked inflation and have lagged behind the private sector. A realistic way of fixing the deficit is going to have to include raising revenue through higher taxes rather than gimmicky measures like wage freezes.

      If we’re talking belt tightening lets do it in a way that actually addresses the underlying problems.

  10. Cath says:

    Substitute Harper for McGuinty, the Liberals for PCs and Mulcair for Horwath in your list WK and you’ve got exactly the current scenario on the federal scene. Funny that.

  11. Middle Class Family says:

    I’m a full supporter of the Ontario Liberals and a huge fan of JC. But with regard to #9, JC barley won a majority in 1997 while doing that, and that was with a severely divided right.

  12. wsam says:

    Wait until Doug Ford runs for the Provincial Parliament and unleashes a Ford Nation tusnami on the hapless Liberal. They’ll be scattered like pigeons on a particularly gusty day. In fact. If there is an election, I predict that by this time next year Tony Clement will have secured funding to build a monorail to Huntsville — the TTC responsible for cost-overruns. Ford Nation crushes puny moderate politicians.

  13. Ottawacon says:

    My counter is that this feels like the same sort of odd conjunction that led to mass temporary insanity in the voting booth and the Rae government.

  14. reformatory says:

    so #9 basically reads.. “lie while campaigning and when you get in.. do the opposite”

    NICE

  15. Tiger says:

    Well, it seems that parliamentary majority wins follow prima facie findings of contempt, so I suppose the McGuinty Liberals are on track. :p

  16. Sean says:

    DALTON, DALTON, DALTON, 4 MORE YEARS!

  17. wsam says:

    Dalton McGuinty would do well to have himself found in contempt of Parliament.

  18. Tim Sullivan says:

    Drummond rightly pointed out that wage freeze will not correct anything. There is a make-up time after a freeze to cause the same problems the freeze was aimed at correcting.

    There has to be some real changes to what services we provide and how we finance those changes. I’m not opposed to tax increases, but like most people, I would only encourage it if it was to address systemic problems and not a quick fix, like a freeze.

    The PCs are in a bind because they have been calling for a freeze for a long time. What gives them any cred to do a backie-outie of that now?

  19. wsam says:

    Which Provincial Party unvieled a phony budget?

    Hint: Rhymes with Preservative.

  20. Michael says:

    “the province is in dire straits financially BECAUSE of McGinty,”

    How utterly false. The Liberals inherited a hidden deficit left behind by the Harris/Eaves conservatives.

    They were able to bring the budget back to balance, until the 2008 recession. A double blow with a huge decrease in revenues at the same time as people were accessing more social services. The Liberals helped bail out the auto industry and increased government spending to stimulate the economy. I don’t hear too many howls from the conservatives for Harper having done the same thing.

  21. Tim Sullivan says:

    Yeah! Why should a politician ever play politics? I mean .. I never!

    You know, I hear this comment often, and oddly from politicians. It has to be one of the stupidest expressions.

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