11.22.2012 06:54 AM

National horserace numbers/completely baseless speculation open thread

Nanos, a real polling firm, has decreed that the Libs remain in second place – ahead of the NDP, and not so far behind the Reformatories. Wow!

Now, yesterday’s events bummed me right out. But, this foggy morn, I have returned to my usual sunny and optimistic outlook. Thanks, Nanos guy!

What thinkest thou, O wk.com readers? Are the Libs edging back? Is it all fakery? Is it irrelevant? Is Justin Bieber an ongoing stain on our national reputation?

Open thread. Comment away!


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    Matt says:

    If anything it speaks to the leadership of Thomas Mulcair and the castle made of sand that was the NDP in the last election. I have no visceral animus to the dippers in general but they made a HUGE mistake with Mulcair and it is starting to show.

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    sj says:

    The Calgary Centre numbers once again show that, even in Dallas North, most folks do not support the Reformatories. But as long as there are two progressive alternatives the Tories will win seats that should be electing centre-left MPs, just like my blue collar seat in E-ton. So someone should challenge both Mulclair and Liz to endorse Harvey Locke.

    Oh, and David McGuinty can pound sand.

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    Christian says:

    Way too early to be breaking out the champagne. For one thing we’re years away from a federal election. Also with numbers like this Harper would likely still win a minority gov’t. Until the Libs and NDP stop eating each other’s lunch I fear we’re going to be stuck in this pattern.

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      Gary says:

      Harper likely would form a minority government with numbers like these. Especially with all the new seats coming into play. My question is which federal party would prop-up his minority? Will he even lead his party into the next election or leave before then? Would a leadership change make a difference in gaining governing support for a minority? Lots of questions and variables, but I cannot see any federal party that would back up a CPC minority if they continue on their current path.

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    Joey Rapaport says:

    Glad to hear NDP was just a lapse in judgement! Got to figure after 9 years in power, folks will want a change, and Trudeau’s Liberals can attract all sorts of old and new stars from the private sector!

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      MCBellecourt says:

      Sure has been a helluvan expensive lapse in judgement! We got stuck with Harper and we’re further in the hole than we should be.

      No offense to the memory of the dead, but I am still angry with Layton for his sleazy tactics during the debates, and for not being upfront about his poor health. He may have meant well, but he was quite instrumental in causing a lot of damage to Canada.

      And as for their leadership campaign, why was it that NDP voters were having so much trouble getting their votes counted when Cullen was starting to edge up?

      This has bugged me for awhile. The whole thing does not pass the smell test.

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    Paul says:

    The Libs are indeed edging back. This is wonderful news, since the supports the notion that the NDP “Orange Wave” was a Quebec-only phenomenon that died with Jack Layton. The “progressive” vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals will ensure at least a minority Conservative government in 2015, and thus the economic survival of our country will be ensured for another five years.

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      Bluegreenblogger says:

      You are one funny guy! In case you did not notice, many of the people reading your comments are Liberals, you know, the Party that under Chretien (and Paul Martin) rolled back the Mulroney deficit, balanced the budget, ran consecutive surpluses, whilst simultaneously reducing payroll taxes and improving services? And you are trying to somehow tell people who actually know the facts that the Conservative’s are our economic saviours? The same Conservatives who have in half the time lost the surplus, then rolled into record deficits, all the while reducing services, while 1,000,000 Ontarians joined the unemployment line. You are one funny guy! hahaha

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    MoeL says:

    Since they ask for both first and second choices, does anyone know if/when they plan to also publish these stats? These would be very interesting if some regional strategic voting were to take place? IMHO, strategic voting would me more likely now that the per vote subsidy is disappearing… watch what you wish for?

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    dave says:

    One reason I voted Cullen for leader was his aim to take a step in our elections system. Perhaps in the position he is in he can influence this if NDP ever get there.
    It does cross my mind, though, that partial proportional representation (say, 208 consituancy reps, and 100 proportion reps) would give pollsters different numbers to wrestle with.

    (What’s this Justin Bieber stuff? He’s still the favourite to win the Lib leadership, isn’t he? His youth, his youth following, his new, new, new Justin-mania?)

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      Reality.Bites says:

      People always endorse proportional representation when they’re not in power. Then when in power they either drop it entirely, or put it to an impossible-to-win vote.

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    m5slib says:

    it could mean that Harper’s post pubescent clan reserving their vitriol for Justin or whoever the next lpc leader is. I hope your friend Gerald is ready.

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    Michael says:

    We’ve seen this before – with the positions reversed. People have always historically liked NDP leaders the most, and this drove up their support between elections – but the NDP could never close the deal.

    I have a feeling that with his all-flash-and-no-substance reputation, the same is going to be true of Trudeau, and we’ll have a status-quo Parliament in 2015 with a stronger Liberal party and slightly weaker NDP. People like the idea of a pretty, charismatic leader, but unless something major happens between now and then (two years is a long time), I don’t think they’re going to close the deal.

    What I do find interesting is Trudeau’s bases of support. Middle-aged suburban women.. among the likeliest to vote. That’s going to count in his favour, but their support is soft.

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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    The only certainty in my view is that another Conservative government is no longer virtually assured. That’s as far as I’ll go for now. Under a new leader, we can win — or we can lose. Same thing could happen to Harper. Right now, neither of us has any chance of forming a government with a workable majority. I predict a lot of political reassessment and tweaking in the weeks and months ahead. Reminds me of drifting sands — but to whose ultimate benefit? Now, there’s the rub.

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    Niall from Winnipeg says:

    Hello WK,

    Yesterday tell everyone how far the Liberals have to go to even think about getting back in serious contention for national credibility:

    1. Joe “Will you take a cheque” Fontana (ex Federal Liberal Cab. Min.), faces RCMP fraud charges.

    2. David “Firewall Ontario” McGuinty, esteemed Liberal MP, advises fellow Parliamentarians to ‘go back where they came from’

    Just Fooking Amazing,

    Niall from Winnipeg

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    Philippe says:

    I believe it. Party because I want to believe it, and partly because I believe that although some polls are off, most of them are on.

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    frmr disgruntled Con now Happy Lib says:

    Two words: Justin Trudeau…

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    !o! says:

    To me, “below 32%” is the area to pay attention to. I think it’s the number where, if CPC support slips below for long enough, fractures start to emerge. It’s also the minimum level of support that CPC has enjoyed more or less since they formed government. A majority is impossible in this range, a plurality is a wash and depends on regional breakdown. Multiple sources indicating numbers below 32 for consecutive months indicate a real, meaningful erosion of support.

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    Brad says:

    I think people may be starting to wonder what Steve Harper is doing? If he thinks he can hide forever, he is wrong.

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