11.12.2012 08:53 AM

Team Trudeau trifecta

Gave a speech last week – and the week before that in Vancouver and Calgary – saying the same thing: the progressive coalition is women, young people and newcomers.

Without them, progressives can’t win.  With them all, progressives can’t lose.

Worked for Obama, it’ll work for Trudeau.


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    Chris P says:

    Add professionals (i.e the intellectuals) + Don’t discount progressive business leaders either.

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    Reality.Bites says:

    We have a lower percentage of “angry old white men” in this country than the United States does.

    We also have a 3 1/2 party system (I’m calling the BQ a half party because they’re limited to Quebec and were all but wiped out in the last election).

    To win, Trudeau (or whoever else gets the Liberal leadership) needs to take back Quebec for the Liberal party (being an unabashed federalist never stopped his father or Jean Chretien from winning in Quebec, even/especially with a PQ government in place) and take back the votes that have gone to the NDP.

    Not easy, but not unachievable either. There’s little love for Stephen Harper, and people don’t know Tom Mulcair. Trudeau, at his best, is an inspiring figure. People want to like him and want to vote for him.

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    Sean says:

    My only problem with Ibbitson’s piece is that he argues that Obama’s win was because of social media and voter ID. Absolute nonsense. Every party in every campaign uses social media and voter ID. McCain, Romney and north of the border, Dion, Ignatieff were all social media / voter ID guys. Didn’t help them much. To say someone won because of social media and voter ID is to say that Toyota outsells Ford because Toyota has steering wheels. The only reason guys like Ibbitson yakity yak yak about social media is because the folks writing the cheques to keep them in business don’t understand it / use it. Therefore, these social media / voter ID arguments *seem* cutting edge, when they are fluff in the extreme. Obama beat Clinton because he represented a new generation of leaders, you could actually keep track of his positions (Iraq) and because Clinton’s entire campaign was decidedly about the past. He drew minorities too his cause BECAUSE HE WAS BLACK and had an authentic understanding of their plight. He did not attract minority voters because he had smart allecky computer guys who discovered a mystical trail of bread crumbs known as facebook. I understand social media and like certain aspects of it. Does it make a difference in campaigns? Absolutely not. It is no more sophisticated or effective than lawn signs.

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      Tim Sullivan says:

      It may be been once when someone like Ibbitson, who as a side note has yet to correct in anything he writes, could have said it was because candidate A used phones, or took out newspaper ads.

      The manner of communicating with one’s constituency is less important than that one is communicating with one’s constituency in a manner each end of said communication understands, in media and message.

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      Bluegreenblogger says:

      Obama won (twice) because people who did not historically vote actually got out and voted. This happened at the margin, providing just enough enhanced turnout to tip the balance. The significance of Social media is in the people it reaches who are really unreachable by other, more conventional means. If you really look at Trippi with the Dean campaign, and then his inheiritor, Obama (with most of the same team onside), you will see that they acheived something remarkable. They used the TWO way street that is social media, rather than treating the rubes to passive ‘billboard’ style messages and lawn signs. They used the two way street to engage people who never would have voted otherwise. Now, if you critique Trudeau comparing his use of ‘social media’ to Dions, Ignatieffs, or Harpers, or just about anybody else in Canadian Politics, then you are missing something significant. I think Trudeau is engaging a BIG slice of people who would not give a shit about electoral politics otherwise. They likely do care about politics, and political issues, they are just totally disengaged from what most people think of as the usual channels. If he is actually able to engage a significant number of people not normally expected to vote, then it is game over for the CPC. By significant, I mean increasing turnouts by a couple of percentage points, and that is all that will be needed.

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    Jon Evan says:

    What do “women, young people and newcomers” want that they don’t already have?

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      Warren says:

      Peace, order and good government.

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        Poulter says:

        Sorry guys—most of us believe we have those qualities in our government now.

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          Tim Sullivan says:

          Then most of “us” are not paying attention.

          Is this JamesHalifax?

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          Kev says:

          Who’s this “us” you refer to?

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        Jon Evan says:

        Why not jobs? Interestingly, that’s what Romney thought jobs should be the focus but not: he lost to the one with record unemployment as a pres! So, perhaps jobs isn’t the issue. Free health care (though rationed) and more benefits like in Europe with shorter work weeks, earlier retirement, and higher pensions. Now that would be good gov’t! Would I vote for that? Would you? Would this be good gov’t? Is this what the americans voted for from Obama?

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    Poulter says:

    Obama won the election because he received 90% of the Black vote and 70% of the Hispanic vote—-forget the women and youth vote—he had it won with those 2 groups.
    A small majority women and young people may tend to vote for Trudeau but in Canada the newcomer vote is very diverse. There is nothing similar between the Hispanic vote in the U.S. and the Muslim, East and South Asian, Polish, etc. vote in Canada.

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      Tim Sullivan says:

      In a democracy, the number of votes is what counts. Votes have no colour, sex or religion. So, your point it, what exactly?

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        Poulter says:

        My point is as a rebuttal to the blog host who maintains that just like Obama, Trudeau will win by targeting the colour, sex and religion of voters.

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    Lawrence Stuart says:

    “Worked for Obama, it’ll work for Trudeau.”

    I’d like to believe it. But I’m not sure I do. Or at least it won’t be a given, or easy.

    Canada is actually more complex, perhaps.

    Look at Nate Silver’s graph here: http://preview.tinyurl.com/byl9rzm .

    The interesting bit is in the swingy middle part of the graph. And the key to the swingyness is demographics, not? From Pennsylvania to North Carolina, the demographic rise of the McGovern coalition is what changes the tide. In the US the Rovian wedges cut deep, firmly polarizing the electorate. But in the end it was demographics that changed the political advantage: the cleft has begun to favour those who they were intended to marginalize.

    I like Justin, I really do. And I will support him, in spite of my deep distrust of political dynasty. But aren’t the cleavages here much more complex, as in multiple and overlapping? Our Cons have very wisely chosen not to pound so hard on the Rovian wedge issues. The progressive coalition is divided between Libs, Dippers, and Bloc.

    It’s gonna be a tough fight … uphill.

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