Musings —12.17.2012 08:06 AM—
…that’s what I’ve been saying to folks across Canada since the release of Fight The Right, a few weeks ago. It’s the incontrovertible reality: conservatives winning majorities in a country where the majority are progressive. They do that because the progressive vote is split.
Harper’s vote is slipping and shrinking, but it still doesn’t matter. As long as progressives – Liberals, New Democrats, Greens – continue to fight amongst themselves, Stephen Harper will continue to benefit. You may not like it, you may not approve, but that’s the way it is. It’s math.
Graves, here, with whom Bricker and others agree this morning:
The Conservative party may well benefit from a perfect progressive storm of vote-splitting and a futile rise in Green party votes resulting in few or no seats — as in 2008, when almost 7 per cent support for the Greens still failed to produce a single seat. The slightly invigorated Liberal party and the slightly diminished NDP will now saw off about 50 per cent of voters and the lion’s share of the progressive vote. A even more popular Green Party is still far away from levels where their popularity can translate into seats under the first-past-the-post system. So it may well be the case that a relatively stagnant and diminished Conservative party is in position to post another majority with even lower numbers than they had going into 2011.