01.13.2013 10:06 AM

The next ten years

After yesterday, it’s pretty clear that the next 10 years of Ontario’s future will be determined by today.

The question is clear, too. Do you select someone who can get support in every part of the province, from Left and Right – or do you pick someone who will lose votes to the NDP (because city voters will always pick the real New Democrat over the pretend one), and who will lose votes to the PCs (because the countryside has had quite enough of downtown Toronto telling them what to do)?

Today sets the next decade. Win again. Or spend a decade in opposition, saying, over and over: “We made a mistake.”


  1. Cath says:

    You’ve set up the next provincial election nicely….and actually in your brief post, indicated a likely prediction too.

  2. Skinny Dipper says:

    As a New Democratic supporter, I would suggest that of all the Ontario Liberal leadership candidates, Sandra Pupatello would be the long term threat to both the NDP and Conservatives. I don’t think Ms. Pupatello will attract lots of NDP supporters to the Liberal side. Far from it. However, if she can convince small “c” conservative voters that she will be fiscally responsible, and that she will be different from Dalton McGuinty, she may improve the Liberal fortunes in the long run. It will be easier and more cost efficient to convince small “c” conservatives to support the Liberals than it will be to convince NDPers to switch.

    If Sandra Pupatello becomes the next leader, she will need to seek some kind of amicable resolution with the public school teachers. That means letting teachers negotiate fair contracts with their school boards without conditions imposed by the government. Otherwise, the teachers will continue to withhold their participation from extra-curricular activities, field trips, and meeting parents after school. That will hurt the Liberals in the long run. If no mutually agreed memorandum of understanding is reached between the government and teachers, the teachers will campaign against the Liberals in the next provincial election. If there is some kind of agreement, it doesn’t mean that the teachers will support the Liberals. However, they may not vigorously campaign against them.

    Tim Hudak will probably run a similar campaign as last time. He may offer a few pet issues to differentiate himself from the Liberals such as having beer and wine sales under private ownership. He may propose increasing speed limits on some of the highways. Will Sandra Pupatello be “Mommy McGuinty” by saying no to higher speed limits?

    It is likely that the NDP will focus on Andrea Horwath as the NDP has less money raised than either the Liberals or Conservatives. Also, while she is popular, not all the NDP riding associations are very strong. The NDP will need to work an extra 5 percent harder in order to compensate for weak riding associations in parts of Ontario.

    If the legislature reconvenes, the Conservatives and NDP will likely reintroduce the motion to find Liberal MPP Chris Bentley in contempt of parliament. The Liberals will introduce a budget. However, I do feel that the next Liberal leader will pull the plug on the legislature before any contempt of parliament motion is voted on. The NDP and Conservatives will likely vote against the budget because they do not want to give the next Liberal leader any momentum.

  3. Reuben says:

    Regardless if Pupatello or Wynne lead the Liberals, both will have to fess up to McGuinty’s gaffes because there is no defending them. Horwath will attempt to downplay the Rae Day debacle and Hudak will be the only “male” in the race.

    Look to the PC war machine to hang McGuinty and Bob Rae around the necks of the female leaders with vicious attack ads. That is a given.

  4. Kre8tv says:

    I take the view that the Ontario Liberals are pretty much toast no matter who is leading them. Some of that is just because voters are fickle. Some of it is rooted in other things. The real question is who is the right person to help the party through the maelstrom that they all ought to know is coming. Wynne is the kind of candidate parties pick when they think the solution is to offer more of the same. Which is a fine thing when your opposition is in total disarray.

  5. Bloody Bounder says:

    Well, I just got back from my local Leadership Election Meeting (LEM). Despite my heart told me to vote for
    Gerard Kennedy, as I am an unapologetic urbane, cosmopolitan, downtown Toronto-centric, social-liberal
    who is on the left-wing of the OLP, I decided to heed Warren’s advice, and I voted for Sandra Pupatello.
    I believe that Sandra is the only candidate who can take down Hudak and Horwath, even if I do not agree
    with all of her policies.

    I just hope that Sandra, should she become both the next OLP leader and Premier of Ontario, will put forth
    more left-wing socioeconomic policies as part of the OLP next election platform. Focusing on jobs, the economy,
    and rural areas is all well and good, but she also can’t afford to ignore her left flank as it were. Please don’t focus
    on the middle class suburbanite small “c” conservatives/Paul Martin neo-liberals who only care about jobs, at the
    expense of Trudeau social-liberals such as myself who are deeply concerned about the poverty line benefits which
    people on Ontario Works and the Ontario Disability Support Programme as receiving, Ms Pupatello. Something also
    has to be done about homelessness and the lack of affordable housing in this province. Lastly, Ontario settles over
    150,000 immigrants each and every year, most of whom need social services to some extent. Please don’t make the
    next provincial election a race against Hudak over who can most pander to the propertied, suburban/rural,
    car owning, tax hating, middle class, small “c” conservative, Canadian born and bred, Hockey Dads/
    Soccer Moms, Tim Horton’s drive threw SUV suburbanite, mostly WASP-ish vote, Ms Pupatello.
    The concerns of the working poor, single mothers, visible minorities, recent immigrants, urban dwellers,
    renters, apartment dwellers, the disabled, the homeless, welfare recipients, and public transit users
    are just as important and valid.

    Almost all of Ontario’s future population growth will be in major urban centres and will be almost exclusively immigrant driven. We need more investment in mass public transit, immigrant settlement services, new public schools, new public hospitals, and increased social spending to help the huge number of immigrants our province takes in each and every to year to get the language and jobs skills they need to succeed. Its great that Sandra has mass appeal province wide and
    in rural areas, but lest we forget, rural ridings are sparsely populated, ethnoculturally homogenous (WASP), and experiencing population decline. Urban ridings on the other hand are densely populated, ethnoculturally heterogeneous, and experiencing explosive population growth. In fact, if Ontario only had a system of strict proportional representation as opposed to the outdated, British Westminster, single seat constituency, first-past-the-post model, which gives undue weight to rural ridings, and is actually really a type of built in affirmative action for rural White people, who tend to be more fiscally and socially conservative than urban dwellers, then the OLP could afford to tell rural ridings to take a hike, but alas, the OLP did not seriously get behind electoral reform, and offered voters a half baked cake back in 2007 with the electoral reform referendum. The core of OLP support is in the urban, ethnoculturally heterogenous, immigrant rich 416, and no potential OLP leader should ignore or apologize for that fact.

  6. dillon says:

    wK is correct about Wynn. Weak outside of Toronto. He would be correct about Puppatello if she didn’t have McGuinty baggage and had some fresh ideas of her own. She has put forward nothing new. Kennedy is the only candidate who is believable if he says his government will be different from McGuinty’s. Wk is right that it will take voters 10 years to forget the McGuinty failure.

    • Reuben says:

      My concern is that the OLP, as well as the PC and NDP, are Toronto-centric when it comes to leadership. Pupatello is from Windsor and we are becoming regionalized and almost tribal in our voting patterns. I hope the OLP will make a wise choice for their next leader and if they don’t it may well be 10 years in the wilderness, and Ontarians will suffer.

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