03.16.2013 09:03 PM

In Sunday’s Sun: in politics, timing is everything

In politics, as in comedy, timing is everything.

On Wednesday morning, Liberal MP Marc Garneau announced he was withdrawing from his party’s leadership race and offering his support to Justin Trudeau. Given that the former astronaut was considered Trudeau’s main opponent — and given how relentlessly critical he’d been of Trudeau — Garneau’s move should have been big news.

It wasn’t. A few short hours later, a bit of white smoke heralded a new pope, and Francis stepped out before the crowds in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican. And that was that for Garneau, and the attendant Garneau headlines.

In politics, timing is everything.

Had they come along sooner than they did, Kim Campbell and John Turner might have benefited from a different result. But when your party has been in power for around a decade — and Christy Clark and Kathleen Wynne know this too well — the timing is all wrong. The timing is against you.

The timing was against Garneau in every conceivable way, too. It was almost cosmically ordained against him.

At a time when the Liberal party had determined it needed “generational change,” Garneau was older and Trudeau was younger. At a time when Grits wanted excitement and passion, Garneau arguably had little — and Trudeau inarguably had both in abundance. At a time when Liberals felt they needed a sharp contrast to Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair — both older, grumpy-looking men — Trudeau fit the bill. Garneau, meanwhile, did not appear all that dissimilar from those he pledged to defeat.

Like we say, timing. Trudeau had it, Garneau didn’t.

The papal news notwithstanding, some pundits tried to be upset about Garneau’s departure, ill-timed or not. To them, it exposed the Liberal race as a farce. It was indisputably a coronation, now. It was bad for the Liberal party. It was bad for Trudeau. It was bad, bad, bad.

Well, no, actually. The Liberal leadership race has had as many as eight contestants opposing Trudeau. Few of them have hesitated to take nasty swipes at the front-runner, denigrating everything from his experience to his upbringing.

The race has been many things, but a coronation is not one of them.

Some columnists suggested Trudeau will emerge from the months-long contest untested by adversity. Again, no.

In mid-December, to cite one unforgettable example, a Sun News Network reporter chased Trudeau from an event outside Toronto, repeatedly questioning him about his appearance at an Islamic conference. From the door of the venue to the door of his ride, Trudeau was unflappable, and treated the reporter as if she literally did not exist. (Even Sun News later joked that the reporter had been rendered “invisible.”)

Trudeau’s organizers were upset about the encounter, but they shouldn’t have been. They should have instead made copies of the two-minute video and sent them to every card-carrying Liberal.

It showed Trudeau as all the best leaders usually are — calm, cool and completely contemptuous of the news media.

All of the other criticisms of the Liberal leadership contest are also irrelevant.

Some of those who signed up won’t vote?

The debates haven’t been edifying? The party has been disorganized?

Every party’s leadership race, since the dawn of time, has been similarly criticized. Not one of those complaints is new or noteworthy.

Trudeau will win the Liberal leadership — and the keys to Stornoway after that, and the keys to 24 Sussex after that — because his timing is right. Garneau understood that, and Harper and Mulcair will eventually, too.

And, when your political timing is right, not even a papal intervention can stop you.

That may not be fair, that may not be right, but that’s the way it is.

46 Comments

  1. A. Cynic says:

    Bravo WC. I hope some ‘invisible’ MSM types and dare I say, some Liberal members, will read this and scratch their heads.

    • Elizabeth says:

      Garneau is a nice guy, but he’s boring. End of story. That will matter more in a federal election than it does here.

  2. Sean says:

    Bang on Warren.

    Further, I would postulate the following. Perhaps a conversation erupted inside Team Garneau as follows… “What is the best way to harm Trudeau at this juncture?” The answer “Quit now…. Deny him a true victory over anyone that matters.”

  3. K says:

    Sorry, Marc did not endorse Justin (or otherwise ‘throw’ his support to him). The media claimed he was going to, but he did no such thing. He supports Justin in the vein that Sandra supports Kathleen.

    And FWIW, you Trudeauites have no clue what you’re doing to both party and country. This fiercely partisan Grit is equal parts disgusted and saddened.

    • Elizabeth says:

      I wouldn’t vote Liberal if Murray was leader, because I just don’t like her. Same for Garneau – better than Murray, but he just doesn’t have any chutzpah, he doesn’t have what it takes. And I’m just one person – all the others who are interested in Trudeau are also not interested in Murray, Garneau, Hall-Findlay, etc. It’s not partisanship, it’s common sense. Trudeau is the one who can do it.

      • K says:

        Elizabeth, with due respect, you’d have to be profoundly stupid to not want to vote Liberal if Garneau were leader. FWIW, many Cons agree he would have by fa been their most formidable opponent. WK can ask his CPC friends if we’re in any doubt about that.

        I agree JT’s supporters seem singularly interested in his personality — potentially fatal for a party whose primary deficit is structural & organizational. Cult of personality is not the answer for a party that’s tried simply changing the leader too many times already.

        To Audrey… call me a Canadian first, but simply “replacing Harper” is not sufficient. I need to see a specific agenda for governing before I can hop on a bandwagon.

  4. K says:

    BTW, “calm and cool”? Did you see his confused and confusing answer to Garneau asking him why he is qualified to be PM? unless he is working off a script, his speaking style is long, convoluted, and distinctly un-statesmanlike. he stammers and avoids specifics, and the public won’t let him get away with it for long (did you see he’s polling worse than Paul Martin did prior to becoming leader?)

    • kitt says:

      Confusing? You? Yup. Better Justin’s long, convoluted, unstatesmanlike answers than Harper’s make-up, unscripted, hilarious fumbles to put two words together. And JT has nicer hair 😛

    • Elizabeth says:

      Oh garbage. Seriously! He speaks rapidly, he is eloquent in French and English; has a lot to say, is never stuck for words at all – and he’s very bright. Good grief – go vote for Harper already.

      • G says:

        Kitt & Elizabeth, sorry but everything that I said holds. He didn’t have much to say (and looked awfully stuck for words) when Garneau asked what in his resume qualifies him to be PM. That would have been the takeaway from the GTA debate were it not for MHF’s ham-fisted personal attack. And Kitt, Harper is a very polished speaker on or off-script — that’s a fact, and the LPC needs someone who can counter that, not try to weave poetry.

        As far as telling me to “go vote for Harper already”… careful what ya wish for 😉 In all seriousness I am from a part of the country with a remarkably shallow CPC caucus so I don’t feel bad about continuing to support the party locally. However I can’t yet go around truthfully telling people I think JT will make the best PM, when I simply don’t know what he’ll do as PM. Hopefully he’ll put forward an agenda (different from a vision) I can support but he’s been running for nearly 6 months and it hasn’t happened yet.

        • kitt says:

          I watched the debates and read the news reports and witnessed a different Justin Trudeau.

          Quote: Trudeau said he has voiced his views on a variety of issues, citing his opposition to the Northern Gateway oil pipeline and support for the legalization of marijuana as examples.

          “I’ve been just as specific as everybody else,” Trudeau replied.

          “What is it in your resume that qualifies you to be the future prime minister of Canada?” he asked Mr. Trudeau, returning to a line of attack Mr. Garneau has amplified in recent days.

          Mr. Trudeau quickly responded, pointing to his positions on trade and post-secondary education — posted to his website hours before the debate — and his success winning back his Montreal riding from the Bloc Quebecois.

          Mr. Trudeau also touched on his campaign staple of emphasizing his leadership qualities he says will rekindle the party’s popularity with Canadians.

          Mr. Trudeau then set his sights on Mr. Garneau, accusing him of being too tied up in detailed policy announcements instead of making inroads with voters.

          “You can’t lead from a podium and a press conference, you can’t win over Canadians with a five-point plan,” Mr. Trudeau said.

          “You have to connect with them.” – end quote http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeaus-leadership-credentials-attacked-during-liberal-debate/article8773703/

          You will be pleased as Justin consults with members across the country and present a Liberal party that is a Liberal party, as it should be. Check it out for yourself justin.ca

          • G says:

            Given how well a listening tour worked for Ignatieff, I’m going to either puke or cry the next time a Justin supporter brings that up.

  5. smelter rat says:

    Bingo.

  6. Dwayne Larken says:

    “But God said unto him, Thou fool, this night thy soul shall be required of thee.”
    Parable of the Rich Farmer, Gospel of Luke

    For the party of Philosopher Kings, you seem weirdly certain of about the next twenty years – strictly speaking, the future is a complete abstraction and exists nowhere but in the mind. But the soothing certainty of historical materialism will do that to a person.

    Re leadership race: I guess that’s a fail for Rex Murphy lol – I found it all generally a yawner although I did weirdly enjoy Findlay’s public self-denunciation session – reminded me of the Cultural Revolution days.

    And on that note, that’s where things could actually go off the rails. Canadians may weary of being prodded and cajoled into becoming a model protectorate of the Maoist-Corporatist super economy. A war with China (Taiwan/Japan scenarios) would expose decades of Liberal-CCP dealings. A war with Iran would make the “Islamic conference” a real mistake in hindsight. A total collapse of the economy might make people much less amenable to trust-fund boys zipping around in vintage Mercedes – let them eat cake and all that. Meteors could hit Montreal like Russia. Russia could try to seize resources in the Arctic prompting the Americans to intervene. A million unexpected things could happen.

    Time and chance happen to all. It’s not over till it’s over. Que sera sera.

  7. kitt says:

    Yup 🙂

    Ba-bye Crime Minister

    Hello Canada as it should be, beautiful hair and all

    http://www.canada.com/opinion/op-ed/Liberal%2Bcooperation%2Bwork/8105568/story.html

  8. Christian says:

    I am a Liberal Party member and right now I’m struggling to find reasons why I should remain so. Right now beyond “Great Hair” I cannot find any reason why I should vote Liberal over supporting my current NDP MP in my riding.

  9. Well I shall weigh in on this post. I think it is unfortunate the Marc Garneau withdrew from the contest, but it is ultimately his personal decision. As far as the race being a coronation, what utter rubbish! If Trudeau has marshalled 10,000 volunteers, canvassed, and re-canvassed the entire Liberal Party contact lists, and criss-crossed the nation several times over. If Joyce Murray has challenged effectively by networking her way into contention. If Coyne, sharp as a whip has challenged and presented a really compelling case for policy renewal. The door stood wide open for anybody who could gather a few hundred signatures and $75,000. If all these things have taken place, and hundreds of thousands of Liberals and Supporters have the opportunity to vote on the outcome, no-one has cause to cause to claim coronation. I think the better word is Landslide, (should it actually turn out that Joyce cannot mobilise her supporters in sufficient numbers)

    • Publius says:

      Ironically, the youngest candidate, Justin, has beaten, even embarrassed all the other older challengers by using the social media weapon. All the old political dinosaurs justify ‘generational change’ within the Liberal party, even if it means a temporary drop followed by a surge… in time.

      • R Buxton says:

        Lets look at why Justin is so far ahead. He simply out worked everyone else. The day he visited us in Alberta, he started the day off with a work out in Edmonton with a heavy weight boxing contender. There was then a morning fund raiser and appearance in Edmonton. By Noon he was in Ponoka with an over flow crowd. By 3 he was at Red Deer college with another overflow crowd. Following that there were appearances in Calgary and Lethbridge before he called it a day. This kind of hustle went on for days on end all over the country. This is how he will win and that is how he will govern the country. The energy the man has is second to none.

        • Publius says:

          The killer question is does Justin have intellectual substance, authenticity, credibility, political smarts when he finally gets into the ring with Mulcair and Harper, and their vicious propaganda machines?

          Will federal Liberals be able to assemble a “Team Trudeau” that can challenge the Conservatives and in particularly the NDP where most of the soft lefty liberals have parked their votes?

          Has Justin got the real stuff, or is he just a flash-in-the-pan fad being embraced by the unreliable rebellious youth and Liberals seeking an instant messiah to rebuild the badly wounded remnants of the federal Liberal party?

          How deep will his “generational change” policy go to rid the Liberals of past losers and rebuild it with new, vibrant, aggressive members and supporters?

          So many questions, and I wish Justin the best in his olympian task. I hope he chooses his political friends and allies carefully, as any competent leader must do to survive. Justin as Liberal leader will go through a hellish political fire; and the worse is yet to come.

          • The groundwork for the next general election will be more important than the parry and thrust of the writ period. What Justin needs to be able to do is build up the resources and capacity of the Liberal Party in the two intervening years. I think that he has demonstrated that he has all the qualities required to build on the supporter and membership base, and bring in a significant infusion of people, money, and more. If he does nothing more than marshall the full resources of the Liberal Party to support him in what he has been doing for the past 6 months, then there will unarguably be a very different, much stronger Liberal Party heading to the hustings in 2015. There just aren’t that many people watching the antics on Parliament hill anymore, so all he need do is keep out of trouble, and build, build, build.

  10. Tiger says:

    So: “Trudeau will win the Liberal leadership — and the keys to Stornoway after that, and the keys to 24 Sussex after that — because his timing is right. Garneau understood that, and Harper and Mulcair will eventually, too.”

    Implicit assumption in that statement: Harper wins again in 2015, eh? Well, if he does, and loses after that, a change of government after 13 1/2 years in power is a pretty darned good run.

  11. Publius says:

    If after all of this is over, will we see Mulcair and Trudeau embrace each other to unite the centre-left, rather than ripping at each others jugulars particularly in Quebec? What’s the point of playing adversarial politics when both know they are dividing the vote and giving Harper the keys to 24 Sussex?

    Recently, the NPD ran an attack ad against Harper and the Conservatives. Why? Was it a sign of good faith and good intentions signaling to the Liberals that the NPD/NDP are amenable to merger talks? Seems odd to me that the NPD didn’t save their advertising budget money and wait to attack their main adversary in Quebec… the Liberal party headed by Justin Trudeau.

    Will pragmatic politics sway the NDP and Liberal leadership to embark on merger talks before the next election in 2015.. or will they engage in a mutual destruction campaign where Harper comes out the winner, again? Unite or concede?

  12. frmr disgruntled Con now Happy Lib says:

    I just hope the Trudeau juggernaut of popularity will bring new blood into the fold……so come the next election,(at least for my riding) we actually have a war chest, and boots on the ground to do the gruntwork…..y’know…..the stuff that actually gets your candidate, who may not be so Trudeauesque, elected…..
    No one wants to see Mr. Harper gone more than me, but if we continue to depend on a Messiah, without ensuring that every Liberal EDA( riding assn for those who prefer the old nomenclature) is functioning and well funded, resulting in good local campaigns and top flight candidates…..we are in for a rude awakening……because most ridings have Con or NDP EDA’s that are well funded, and functioning….

    • R Buxton says:

      Riding funding depends on the Liberals in the riding and not the LPC. Those are the rules the Elections Canada oversees. No Corporation and no Union can fund an kind of election campaign again. so Happy “New” Liberal, if you want a strong riding presents only you and other Liberal near you can make it happen, not the LPC.

      • not true. Any riding association or unit of the Party can transfer funds to any other unit. Not that they would, but you can readily see examples in Elections Canada databases examples of rich and powerful Conservative ridings raising hundreds of thousands of dollars, and transferring them to weaker EDA’s that do not have such deep pockets. The Green Party paid for over a million dollars of pre-writ funding in SGI, in the couple of years before the last general election. They have actually transferred virtually all the elections funds into whatever riding Elizabeth May has been running in for 2 general, (Central Nova, and SGI) and one by-election (London North Centre). It is nonetheless best if the local EDA’s raise their funds themselves.

      • frmr disgruntled Con now Happy Lib says:

        Forgive me for not being more clear, but I understand fully how a riding assn or EDA is funded……that fact of the matter is, if you dont have enough active members in a local riding assn, fundraising for said riding assn is going to be very difficult…..esp if a lot of them are “supporters” and not full members(many of whom, like myself, contribute monthly to the Victory Fund…..which shares 50/50 with the National office and the members riding assn)
        That is what I meant by Justin Trudeau’s popularity bringing new blood into the fold…….new active members may mean more dollars in the local riding assn’s coffers……
        If I know M. Trudeau, he will work tirelessly to do the work necessary to ensure that every riding in Canada has an active and well funded Liberal riding assn…..
        If not, we will be hooped…….despite Jack Layton’s fleeting success in Quebec with bar maids and university students…..the Cons were a non entity in that province in the last election……
        The situation is entirely different in Western Canada, where most Liberal riding assn’s….including my own, have been on life support for the last few years……while the Con riding assn’s are flush with cash……

        • Hey, the supporter category is already paying off with lots of new donors. That’s the way it works, you build up the supporters, and tap them to become donors, volunteers, members, you tap them for whatever you need. the more supporters you gather in, the more of the other good things will follow. Plus the nice bonus you get to count more strongly on their votes too. That is the way forwrd, just keep on building and enriching Liberalist with supporters and the stuff you need for campaigns will follow. That what the Cons do, and they are in a fundamentally weaker position than the Liberals when it comes to an affinity with large numbers of Canadians.

    • Michael says:

      In the last election we had MPs elected who never set foot in their riding, who did no campaigning at all. So tell me again, what’s the stuff that actually gets your candidate elected.

      • kitt says:

        JT believes ridings should elect their own candidates and not have someone parachuted in by head office. So start looking for a strong, winable Liberal in you riding and hold a nomination meeting.

    • ottawacon says:

      I think you are hitting the nail right on the head here. The LPC’s capacity to win elections has seriously atrophied, and it was always top-down even in its best days. As an election-fighting machine, the LPC is still a generation behind the Conservatives and the NDP, and unless something radically changes in the next 2 years, you already know the party will not have the capacity to gain with the ground game – it will all rest on the leader.

  13. ottawacon says:

    I think Trudeau has moved too early, and will end up being exposed in the next election unless he really rebuilds the LPC in the next 2 years. He just has not accomplished to be compelling to a very large percentage of voters, even as a parliamentarian. The same broken institution that rendered up Dion and Ignatieff as a sacrifice in forlorn hope is ready to do the same.

    This time, I think if they get it wrong, it will be the end. After Trudeau, there is no one to turn to as a saviour, and there will be precious few plodders like Garneau left. Seems to me there is some serious cognitive dissonance going on with the Liberals I know talking about running Harper out of office when the next election is about survival.

    • Michael says:

      Prior to being elected PM, what had Harper accomplished? He had bounced around jobs, been the head of a right wing lobby group, and sat as a Reform MP for a short period of time. Hardly what you would call impressive,

      Justin’s resumer (& age) are on par with Harper’s when he became PM.

      • ottawacon says:

        I would say Harper’s only meaningful accomplishment at that point was putting the CA and PC parties together, but in political terms that was a significant accomplishment that secured a significant base of support. While JT could do something comparable in rebuilding the LPC, he hasn’t done it yet. He is going to have about two years – and they are going to fly by.

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