— Musings —07.10.2013 09:40 PM
— Musings —07.10.2013 09:40 PM
Eric Grenier deconstructing Forum is about as (not) meaningful as Forum deconstructing Eric Grenier. Until sampling starts to be done representatively recognising the riding system we use in Canada, we’re going to continue to wonder why polling just doesn’t seem to work like it used to. We shouldn’t pretend to be shocked that all our pollsters prove to be full of it over and over and over and at the same time stand in awe of somebody like Nate Silver who can somehow read the freaking future — they use very different methods and as a result they get very different results.
I can totally understand that Canada is far too broad and sparsely populated to get proper sampling done, but then again I can also understand why polling firm after polling firm keeps blowing it over and over. Garbage in means garbage out. And maybe we’re too cheap to pay for something that isn’t garbage, but all the navel-gazing over polling recently really gets tiring after a while. We know how to do it properly; it’s not a mystery. We just have to start doing it.
The closest comparison would be their polling for the two Ontario provincial by-elections last summer in Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan. Here’s how well they did:
https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/80449_Vaughan__Kitchener-Waterloo_By-Election_Accuracy_%28Forum_Research%29_%2820120907%29.pdf
Sounds like Grenier could start his own polling firm with all his ideas. I’d be interested to see how he would do.