— Musings —08.01.2013 08:48 PM
By-election take at 9:48
Horwath’s looking like tonight’s big (surprise) winner. Wow.
— Musings —08.01.2013 08:48 PM
Horwath’s looking like tonight’s big (surprise) winner. Wow.
Looks like Timmy will only get one!?
NDP’s breakthrough tonight, if both leads hold, may reflect the sense many had during the campaign that the Liberals need to be spanked, but Ontario does not to be punished by giving Team Hudak more leverage. Which leaves Jane & John Doe with only one other option for expressing their displeasure….Hindsight brilliance, of course….simplistic, but there you have it. What will will this relatively poor showing for the PCs mean for Hudak and his platform?
They are going to over exaggerate the importance of the Etobicoke Lakeshore win, and double down on their neo-con hard right policies. Expect Hudak and the entire PC caucus to get angrier and more shrill.
While, in a vacuum analyzing by-elections as part of a larger trend is a mug’s game, there are a couple things to take away from tonight.
In a time where incumbency has been critical in helping get parties that looked dead in the water re-elected in BC and Alberta, and almost in Quebec, it looks the Liberals lost 3 seats – 2 to the NDP, and 1 to the PCs. Whenever the election happens, Premier Wynne will be going into with a shorter bench – that could be a problem.
While the NDP are obviously the winners of tonight, winning two more seats, are they positioning themselves in the worst position possible for progressive voters? Is a moderately strong NDP, capable of winning 25 seats a recipe for a Conservative win? You spot the NDP north of 20 seats (and assume they gain them all from the Liberals relative to 2011) all of a sudden the PCs don’t need to win a ton more seats to get into office (and in some ridings Liberal-NDP split could lead to PC’s going up the middle and winning the seat.
All that being said, will people allow it to happen if they’re faced with the prospect of Premier Hudak? More than just concerns over how right-wing Hudak is, he hasn’t been able to look competent. He hasn’t looked like someone who could run the province. That’s a problem.
I honestly have no earthly clue what’s going to happen, but despite his struggles tonight, unless one of the Liberal/NDP can make the next election a choice between them and the PCs, we may wake up to Premier Hudak despite that party’s own best efforts to continually grab defeat from the jaws of victory.
Bye Hudak and Doug brings the Ford incompetence to the PC Machine and Liberals and NDP battle for Ontario for the next decade while the Tea Party Fords spout the nonsense that has rendered the right wing party to the south to a festering core.
Because none of you wanted to hear them….here are my humble thoughts….
Liberals – Not the complete epic disaster that could have been, two seats were saved (though Hunter’s % of the vote should worry the party brass, she snuck up the middle of the 3 way race). Still a bad night, lost about 18-20 points off of these ridings as a whole since 2011. Also lost three seats, all longtime liberal holds. Should be kissing Fraser’s hand tommorow, he saved Ottawa South.
NDP – Fantastic showings in Southwestern Ontario, London West especially, Giambrone did OK, the other two ridings they were complete non factors. It shows while the NDP can get out strong pockets of support they still have areas of the province where they are not even considered as an option.
PC’s – Finally winning a seat in the 416 is a big deal and Holyday will make an impact. Finished 2nd in all of the other four ridings, showing they don’t have a farily spread out support but simply can’t grab that extra 5% of the vote they need to really breakthrough and wipe out the liberals. Hudak is a drag on them undoubtedly, need to fnd some stronger candidates I don’t think either of the LW or SG candidates were earth shattering.
Other Parties- Essentially non factors, but the Greens finishing behind the Freedom Party of Ontario in London West is revealing, the media should stop treating them as a player(if they hadn’t already), even in protest byelections there candidates hovered round the 3% mark.
Winners – In some ways everyone, but NDP have most to smile about.
Losers – In other respects everyone, though Wynne will oddly be breathing a sigh of relief that it could have been worse, while Hudak will likely be once again gutted he can’t get over the hump. The biggest loser though is turnout, what a stupid day to have these byelections on.
Tories shot themselves in the foot in Ottawa South by making a fetish of message discipline – somehow they believed the gas plant issue could win it for them, and it just does not have the same resonance it does in Southern Ontario.
I don’t think it is much of a surprise that Horvath is the big winner. Why vote for the fake social democrat when you can vote for the real one? Wynne was a disastrous choice, the Ontario Liberals tacked away from an idiot leader in Hudak who desperately needs to be mauled, in order to compete more effectively with the 3rd place party. People like me cannot bring themselves to vote for Hudak are left with no serious option.
I have a real sense the next election might produce yet another minority (whose? don’t know), and the loser between Hudak and Wynne will get the hatchet, and the next leader wins the next majority. It does raise an interesting question if the NDP secure a minority.
The Big Question now will Horwath continue to prop up the hobbled Wynne Liberals just to frustrate Hudak from getting his last kick at the election can?
If Horwath doesn’t plunge the dagger into the Liberal carcass and send Ontario into a general election that will not look good for Horwath, particularly if she continues to support sister Wynne. And when the election happens, the Hudak PCs will wind Wynne around Horwath’s neck saying that Wynne and Horwath were too long in bed together, politically that is.
This was a repudiation of McGuinty. Wynne has until the spring to make the province realize she is committed to fiscal sanity and progressive values. Duncan and Mcguinty tried the same course but so badly executed the details they had to go.
Rose Coloured glasses: The only reason Hudak is being attacked is because he ONLY won one riding ina series of by-elections inwhich the Liberals had originally been favoured to take them all. Cabinet ministers, safe seats, decades-old Liberal ridings, fortress Toronto, timed and larded for optimal victory, even a former Premier’s riding, and their vote took a bloodied beating. They claim victory from this when even their “star” candidates get thrashed.
In the coming election, it will be safe opposition seats and virtually every Liberal seat in play. None of the advantages deployed in last night’s struggle to keep 2 of 5 “safe” seats will be available. Toronto voters will be targeted by all three parties, but only one will be playing defense.
I mean, seriously, Liberals hemorraged vote, holding Ottawa South by only 1200 votes. This, in a riding the Liberals won by a 49% to 33% margin last time.
LAst night, 35,000 votes were counted, and the margin was 3.4%.
Now, I never discount the McGuinty riding machine, or any of the other levers at the disposal of a sitting premier, but this seat is in play and last night was closer than it has been in 30 years.