11.20.2013 04:56 PM

Toronto needs a mayor:…but be very careful, folks



  1. The poor and poorly educated may be over-represented in Ford Nation, but they are rich in the one thing that counts. They are highly motivated to cast a ballot. Anybody who can still command a fanatically loyal fan base of slightly less than a third of the citizens of Toronto is a force to be reckoned with. I betcha the turnout of identified Rob Ford supporters will exceed 80%. If the next municipal contest stays true to form, with voter turnout south of 50%, then Ford can still weasel his way back.

    • Matt says:

      The 2010 election that saw Ford elected had a 53.2% turnout.

      Miller’s victories in 2003 and 2006 had voter turnout numbers in the mid 30’s

      • Sean says:

        + 1 for both bluegreenblogger and Matts comments. Exactly what I have been thinking.

        • Ted H says:

          Mel Lastman had a higher percentage than Ford.

          • Matt says:

            A higher percentage of the vote, yes. In 2000 he essentially ran un-opposed. There were other candidates of course, but none serious. The guy who came second was Tooker Gomburg who was batshit crazy and third place was infamous Toronto drag queen Enza Supermodel.

            Lastman got 79.96% of the vote. I haven’t been able to find what the actual voter turnout was.

  2. Matt says:

    I agree 100%. Don’t harden the Ford support by insulting them. Ive been telling anyone who would listen the best course of action for progressives is to shut the fuck up and let nature take its course.

  3. Cynical says:

    “Never interfere with your enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.”

    • Jen says:

      I chalk both Ford and Ford Nation’s behavior up to the “Dunning-Kruger” effect:


      The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.

      Translation: Stupid people are too stupid to realize that they’re stupid. They are overconfident in their abilities, and can’t extrapolate their present behavior into future consequences.

  4. W the K - No, not Warren says:

    I wouldn’t characterize them that way.

    Most people who told me they voted for Ford had these things in common. First,and most important, a casual connection to local politics. They couldn’t name their councilor or school trustee. They can’t be slotted on the left or right wing.

    They are suburban but don’t have a chip on their shoulders about the downtown. They just couldn’t imagine living there.

    What little information they got regarding the election usually came from the car radio during their commute and a little tv. So they were very susceptible to sound bites and slogans.

    They all have no idea or interest in the political process while possessing an inherent distrust of all politicians. They work hard then want to relax with whatever interests them personally. That doesn’t include reading, say, political websites.

    They all want to pay less tax. They all take government services for granted.

    They have all come to believe Ford has lost his mind.

    A small sampling, but they’re my work colleagues and my friends. I like and respect them.

    A special ire should be directed at those who exploited that demographic to elect someone so profoundly ill equipped to hold the office.

  5. Steve T says:

    Like my Dad used to say: “You aren’t stupid. You just did a stupid thing.”

    Applies whether you are talking about locking yourself out of your car, or voting for Rob Ford.

  6. reformatory says:

    hence why Olivia Chow is not the candidate. She does not speak that language. She cannot and will not beat the ford agenda. Note I said Ford agenda! not Rob Ford. He may not be able to win again, but whoever talks his language and sounds more articulate, and presents better will wear the golden chain next time around. There is no was Chow can possibly win over the mood of the electorate in this state.

    • Matt says:

      BUT if there are a few talking the Ford Agenda as yo put it, fiscal conservatism, cost cutting, spending reduction ect, it could split the vote possibly allowing Ms. Chow to win, assuming she is the only candidate from the left.

      • Chris says:

        It will all hinge on how the egos of the potential candidates on the left work out – if we get a bunch of candidates all thinking that they are the Ford slayer than it will get messy.

  7. Houland Wolfe says:

    Bob Rae exactly won this vote here and across rural Ontario for his surprise majority. The next election this same block voted for Mike Harris. The populists swing to whomever seems to resonate, not exactly the stable core of a municipal, provincial or federal party.

  8. Eddie says:

    Warren for mayor???

  9. I think Rick Mercer hit the nail on the head with his rant: “What everyone on the left should pay attention to is this: They are saying, ‘We would rather have a guy on crack than a mayor who would raise our taxes.”

  10. Bob says:

    At kid’s hockey practice last night, I was surprised that 5 fathers in the conversation all admitted they voted for Ford. At a dinner party Saturday, 2 older women admitted they voted for Ford.

    None of them will again.

  11. Matt says:

    The next couple weeks will be interesting as the 2014 budget talks get underway.

    The budget chief stated today the 1.75% property tax increase Ford suggested won’t be enough to balance the budget. Ford has already jumped on that saying “See? They take my powers away and the gravy train is set to return.”

    The reason’s the budget chief gave are a little suspect. First, the Scarborough subway. There is a .5% tax increase already approved and part of the 1.75%. The other was because of Fords push to end the Toronto land transfer tax. Huh? Ford has been unsuccessful in removing or even reducing the TLTT. So how can that be responsible for greater property taxes?

    If Council isn’t careful, Ford Villiage (TM Warren Kinsella) might turn back into Ford Nation

  12. Bob says:

    Ford was pretty lucky. Smitherman and Rocco were not likable candidates. And Ford could ride the winds of change. He kept his message simple and never offered details to distract or complicate his position.

    Obviously, we need a strong candidate to run – somebody in the political middle of the road. I don’t know about Oliva as people aren’t ready to swing back to the left this quickly.

    • I do not think it was the ‘likeability’ of Smitherman that cost him the most. A fair chunk of people were enticed by Rob Fords more-or-less open homophobia. We might not like it, but bigotry does in fact drive a lot of votes. For example, during the election, one Friday evening I saw hundreds of anonymous photocopied ‘flyers’ on the windshields of all the cars around a very busy local mosque slagging Smitherman the Homo. And they told two friends, and so on, and so on…..

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.