02.07.2014 08:21 AM

Thornhill and Niagara Falls: check the second-to-last paragraph

The rule I have always followed is this: in any letter or email, the message being conveyed is always contained in the second-to-last paragraph. The first part is just throat-clearing and the end part is just sign-off.

So, too stories about polling, it seems. The way I read it, the Star has finally figured out it look’s like a horse’s ass pimping all those Forum “Research” polls – the accuracy of which are discussed here and here – and they’re now hedging their bets. Thus, the second-to-last paragraph:

“Like most polling firms, Forum uses a proprietary weighting formula, which has been shared with the Star, to more accurately reflect the broader electorate. Raw data from this poll will be housed in the Political Science Data Library at the University of Toronto.”

So, if you want to see how wildly they’re off this time, you’d better start your trek through the snow to U of T, you hear?

Anyway. After talking to various pollsters and politicos, your Free Warren Poll™ is this:

  • The Wynne Liberals are in third place in North, Southwestern Ontario and Eastern Ontario, and have been for some time;
  • The chances of the Hudak PCs losing Thornhill, when the Libs bizarrely called the by-election at the same Stephen Harper was in Israel,  are somewhere between slim and none;
  • The Board are doing to the Ontario Liberals what they did ten years ago to the federal Liberals;
  • The Hudak PCs, like the Wynne Liberals, are now both attacking the Horwath NDP in paid and earned, which tells you all you need to know; and
  • The Wynne Liberal pollster has told cabinet that all they can now hope to hold is fortress Toronto, but they can hold onto government, if they pick up a few GTA seats – which is more on crack that Rob Ford is.

This Free Warren Poll™ is completely 100 per cent accurate, 20 times out of 20.  You’re welcome.

 

 

9 Comments

  1. Tracey says:

    I attended last nights debate. Except for the gent who took the podium hostage and police were called, the debate was really more of a panel.

    With all her time in municipal politics, I was surprised to see Sandra Racco did rather poorly. She read responses from paper, rarely looked up, scowled and was flustered when moderator asked her off script questions.

    The PC candidate Gila, did well, except for minimum wage question. NDP candidate blew it. Couldn’t properly defend position, had a sneer. And by the end while speaking about contributing to pensions, she blurted out that people should have choice to join…sadly the PC candidate didn’t call her on this choice statement pertaining to Unions.

    The Green Party candidate, a doctor from downtown hospital, did incredible. Never read off any notes, answered fully about policy, was engaging and quick. The Liberals should grab her.

    All candidates were women. Which was wonderful.

    • Teresa Pun says:

      Thanks Tracey, this is so nice to hear/read!! I definitely enjoyed the debate last night and above all, meeting locals in the audience who truly care about the political process is always inspiring. You are why we do what we do.

  2. Adding to Tracey’s report:

    The only other woman who was a candidate was told that she would not be permitted to participate in the debate: Erin Goodwin of the Freedom Party was essentially told to be a good little woman, to hide herself in the crowd, and to keep her mouth shut. Class act, that CAA. I was surprised that Global’s host of Focus Ontario agreed to proceed with that sort of game-rigging going on.

    To Warren: “The Board…”. The Board? Is that a reference to Bay Street? To the unions? Fill me in on the slang, fella.

  3. bigcitylib says:

    FWIW, contacted U-of-T and material is only available to Poli Sci students, so going there wouldn’t even help you.

  4. Sean says:

    I bumped into a cabinet minister last night at the gym. He seemed optimistic about holding Niagra Falls. Didn’t say anything about Thornhill

  5. Michael says:

    A week out Forum says that Thornhill is ‘a done deal’ for the PCs because they are up 10% according to his firm. A day out from the Ottawa South by-election Forum said PC candidate Matt Young ‘has this one in the bag’ and predicted a win with a majority of the votes and a 16% lead.

  6. Matt says:

    Warren, just wondering:

    The pollsters that conduct the internal polling for the parties – are they members of the party, non party members but individuals that have ties to the party, paid staffers, or do they use one of the established polling companies like Ipsos?

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