— Musings —04.22.2014 09:35 AM
— Musings —04.22.2014 09:35 AM
Well, given that NDP supporters will be voting for him, and I suspect most Christine Innes Liberals will be as well, thanks to J.T. and his gang,……..I would say Joe is pretty much a shoo-in!!
well, okay, he’s a friend. But for me, none of the candidates are personal friends and I am so excited about Adam Vaughan entering the race!! I hope he wins the nomination and then wins the seat. It would be wonderful to have him in Ottawa.
I don’t think Cressy is a shoo-in. Yes, he has a shot, but so does Vaughan, who has a strong record in winning elections, high name recognition in Trinity-Spadina, great values and he really cares about Trinity-Spadina. Olivia Chow has praised Vaughan in the past, so it’s not like he doesn’t appeal to some NDPers. Some even thought he might be NDP. It’ll be a very interesting race. Until Vaughan entered I thought Cressy had it sewn up, but I don’t think that is so clear with Vaughan.
But funny you say Trudeau fucked up nominations, Warren, and then support a candidate who was hand-picked and acclaimed over one who is expecting to fight a nomination race with at least 2 others.
He wasn’t hand-picked. He ran for the nomination. There was a meeting and everything.
Adam is a very impressive guy. Have known him and liked him for years.
Catherine, my “shoo-in” theory is based on JT writing off the Christine Inness supporters. I don’t know how Vaughn mitigates that process. There is a palatable anger amongst those supporters who worked for her to have a swing at the nomination. My sense is that they will be looking for revenge. Voting for Cressy would provide them with a feeling of satisfaction. IMHO.
But how many Trinity-Spadina would-be Liberal voters actually care about the Innes stuff? Some of them might actually be glad she was blacklisted as she ran and lost twice and is married to the scandal-plagued Ianno (scandal having been made public since she last ran). I agree that the husband’s sins don’t necessarily extend to the wife and shouldn’t have stopped her from getting nominated, but the bad taste he left in a lot of mouths (http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2011/09/12/victims_say_exmp_ianno_used_politics_to_gather_investors.html) might make some glad that an immediate family member won’t be running.
I’m personally more likely to vote Cressy, but I agree with Catherine that a potential Vaughan nom throws a monkey wrench in Cressy’s machine, and on a riding level, I’d be happy with either of them.
On Innes, I biased along the lines sezme raises and glad to see T-S finally opened up beyond Innes and Ianno. But I agree Liamsue — if there are a lot of Liberals, or just voters who would otherwise vote Liberal, who are now inclined to use their vote as revenge against Trudeau and the LPC, then obviously that will help the NDP in this riding. I did that once myself, sick of the Martin-Chretien/Valeri-Copps/Liberal-fighting-Liberal battles, and voted NDP. My riding did change to NDP (great revenge!!) but Harper became PM (joke was on me!)
Since then I’ve seen that whenever the LPC does worse, Harper is the one who really benefits, so I am not likely to do that again, but probably some voters in T-S will. The question is how many.
I don’t think the actual Liberal voters of Trinity-Spadina care about the Innes/Trudeau issue. Adam Vaughan is the councillor for half this riding. He won 74% of the vote there in 2010. Cressy is nowhere near being as recognizable. He starts the race with a major disadvantage. This race will be as much about Trudeau/Mulcair as anything else too – that will be an important factor in who wins this. There is no orange wave now to carry a big NDP win. Should be close in the end but I wouldn’t underestimate Vaughan.