05.02.2014 09:13 AM

So much for my predicting ability

(Very happy, by the way. See ya, Ms. Wynne. Howdy, Premier Horwath. Nap time, Toronto mayoralty campaigners.)

20140502-101150.jpg

.

50 Comments

  1. sezme says:

    Hope you’re right this time. When the mayoralty campaigners wake up in June, I wonder what kind of world they’ll be facing.

    BTW, I’m sure brother Doug is kicking himself that the Rob Ford revelations couldn’t have come about three more days later.

  2. RC says:

    Last week you said Hudak was going to win?!

    • James Bow says:

      No, it’s consistent with what Warren has said before: the campaign changes everything. Horvath campaigns well. But if she ducked the campaign and propped up Wynne, she looked weak, and that would have given the advantage to Hudak. She doesn’t look weak, now.

      • Corey says:

        Not so sure about this ‘Horwath campaigns well’ thing… In 2011, she was at 24% when the election was called. She ended up with just under 23%. Not a stellar campaign success.

        Contrast that with Wynne who had 13% on the first poll of the leadership race and ended up beating Pupatello. She also defeated John Tory in her riding in 2007.

        We’ll see who is the best campaigner….

      • Matt says:

        That might hold true had she not spent the last three years propping up the Liberals.

  3. Ridiculosity says:

    Horwath and Company just lost three votes in this house. There is NO REASON whatsoever for them to vote against Wynne’s (NDP-centric) budget.

    It’s ambition versus vision.

    Sometimes, when you roll the dice, you lose.

    • Lance says:

      There is NO REASON whatsoever for them to vote against Wynne’s (NDP-centric) budget.

      There is if she is trying to demonstrate that she is acting on principle rather than mere ideology.

      • Matt says:

        I never heard Horwath say she didn’t like the budget.

        She said she no longer trusts Wynne to follow through on her promises.

        • Lance says:

          Bingo.

        • Spencer says:

          Horwath and the NDP have been posturing a lot about the Liberals not living up to their promises, but as usual a lot of it is exaggeration (though that normal for politics in general). For example I’ve been hearing the NDP complain about the Liberals not living up to their compromise to reduce auto insurance rates for about half a year. Thing is though the NDP made a promise to mandate reductions within a year, which I find is a fairly unrealistic timeline. Simply passing a mandate to reduce rates with no consultation with the industry seems heavy handed and is somewhat overstepping the usual bounds of government interference in a private industry (since we don’t have public insurance here).

          The Liberals have in fact been working to reduce rates, just not in the way the NDP would have done it with a flat mandate. They have been negotiating ways with the insurance companies to lower costs and see it passed onto customers over simply going into regular profits.

          While the scandals may give the appearance of legitimacy, I think the NDP made a political calculation that things just weren’t going to get better for them, so an election now is simply the least bad time.

  4. Matt says:

    Well, if nothing else, we’re about to find out if the recent NDP by-election success was a real shift in support to the NDP, or if it was just a protest vote by disgruntled supporters of the Liberals sending a message when there was no danger of changing the balance of power in the Legislature.

    • Corey says:

      I suspect it’s the latter.

      • james Smith says:

        Agreed,

        Mr K called Ms H Hudak Helper not so long ago – still holds true today.

        PS
        I now think Ms Chow has peaked, & Ford’s departure sets TEA HO up to be a the first election victory for John Tory – sorry

        PPS
        Just returned from an Oakville chamber forum, lukewarm to the Federal Minister for the Burlington Airpark & very enthusiastic response for the ON minister of Transportation

  5. Eric says:

    Maybe your earlier tweet was the last push she needed to make this decision.

  6. Al in Cranbrook says:

    View from way over here…

    Tax and spend Liberal government finally being brought down by NDP whom don’t think they’re taxing and spending enough.

    Pretty tough to believe a helluva lot of Ontarians, now enjoying a string of years of have-not status, haven’t seen and heard enough of this rot.

    Prediction: PC wins majority.

    For the record, and FWIW.

    • Spencer says:

      Isn’t quite so clean cut. Hudak has had a lot of trouble connecting with people and he has been really wishy washy when it comes to what his actual policies would entail. In the last election he basically stole half of McGuinty’s platform (I’m really not exaggerating), for example he almost copied the 7 year deficit reduction timetable the Liberals used, and still tried to label McGuinty ‘the tax man’.

      Immediately after the 2011 election he took a 180 turn and became hardcore right wing promising right to work legislation and austerity measures to balance to books ASAP. Conveniently though he has been leaving out the actual level of cuts that would take or almost any details about what he would substantially cut.

      Most recently Hudak flip flopped on right to work and ditched it and has been promoting this 8 year period ‘Million Jobs Plan’. The million jobs plan is basically a catch phrase. Aside from being fairly unrealistic, regular estimates indicate the with normal economic growth that many jobs would be created in 8 years anyways without Hudak doing anything.

      • Matt says:

        For sure last election Hudak tried to “out McGuinty McGuinty”. He pretty much matched the Liberals spending announcements dollar for dollar. He never gave voters an alternative. Why would people have gone out and voted for McGuinty Light when they could vote for the real thing.

        Has Hudak learned anything from 2011? We’re about to find out.

        Interestingly enough, Wynne might be in the same situation this time. Why vote for an NDPer in Liberal clothing when the can get the real thing with Horwath.

        Will two parties fighting for the union vote split it sufficiently to allow the PC’s to steal a couple the wouldn’t otherwise have a shot at? Interesting times ahead.

    • Spencer says:

      Isn’t quite so clean cut. Hudak has had a lot of trouble connecting with people and he has been really wishy washy when it comes to what his actual policies would entail. In the last election he basically stole half of McGuinty’s platform (I’m really not exaggerating), for example he almost copied the 7 year deficit reduction timetable the Liberals used, and still tried to label McGuinty ‘the tax man’.

      Immediately after the 2011 election he took a 180 turn and became hardcore right wing promising right to work legislation and austerity measures to balance to books ASAP. Conveniently though he has been leaving out the actual level of cuts that would take or almost any details about what he would substantially cut.

      Most recently Hudak flip flopped on right to work and ditched it and has been promoting this 8 year period ‘Million Jobs Plan’. The million jobs plan is basically a catch phrase. Aside from being fairly unrealistic, regular estimates indicate the with normal economic growth that many jobs would be created in 8 years anyways without Hudak doing anything.

      People are annoyed with the mismanagement but still seem to like Wynne, and they aren’t too enthusiastic about the alternatives at the moment. In addition last time the Liberals reversed a 10 point lead the PCs had at the start of the campaign

      • Al in Cranbroook says:

        Won’t pretend to know a lot about Ontario politics, definitely remains a mystery to me. Out here Premier Gordon Campbell got his ass handed to him over a helluva lot less than what seems to pass for biz as usual out your way.

        Regardless of the past, seems to me all Hudak has to do is promise there won’t be any more of it, including ridiculous green schemes that drive electricity costs through the roof and thus industries out of the province. And talk jobs, balanced budgets, jobs, no more tax hikes, if not tax cuts, and jobs. Did I mention jobs? And quit worrying about what the unions think about him, ’cause they’ll hate him no matter what the hell he says or does anyway. Outside of their membership there is damn little sympathy left for their socialistic causes regardless.

        Bottom line: When Ontario is sucking the hind teat economically…and they certainly are…it huts the whole country. (…did I just say that???) So I probably speak for a lot of Canadians when I suggest that we’re counting on you all to to take this opportunity to clean up your political act!

        …and Rob Ford is arguably the least of your problems.

        JMO

    • Jay says:

      Al,

      Tim Hudak’s PCs were polling in the mid 40s range before the 2011 election, only to blow it off to an unpopular Liberal incumbent.

      These days Hudak’s PCs are polling on average in the mid 30s. One poll recently showed them at 38%, but there are a couple that show his party hovering around 30% or lower.

      Voters in Ontario do not want someone that will bring forward harsh austerity measures as Hudak proposes to do. We have seen the consequences of the Harris years in the 90s.

      Right-wingers like to claim that Ontario’s have-not status is due to the Liberals. Ontario’s decline is due to the decline in the manufacturing sector and a shift of power, wealth and influence to the West.

      Some parts of Ontario are booming. Suburbs right outside of Toronto are booming with business and residential growth, along with relatively low unemployment rates. Other areas such as Kitchener-Waterloo are also flourishing. This is due to the healthy service industry in this part of the province.

      Areas that rely more on manufacturing such as Hamilton, Windsor and small towns across the Southwest have seen higher unemployment.

      • Elisabeth Lindsay says:

        So Jay, you think things are going OK in Ontario? How is being a have not Province OK. How is paying 10 BILLION dollars a year in interest OK?

      • Al in Cranbroook says:

        Jay, some truth there.

        Here in BC, when Campbell kicked the NDP out of office, the first thing he did was slash taxes, something in the order of 25% or thereabouts. Lots thought he was nuts. However, he was quickly vindicated as the BC economy came storming back, and we left behind the “have not” status the NDP had dragged us down to. Old friend of mine in the Okanagan, who ran a dry wall biz for years, said that within six months it was like someone flipped the light switch back on again. Not that I’m a big fan of Christy Clark, but I never, ever want to see the NDP back in power. They kicked the hell out of this province!

        That said…

        At some point it becomes necessary to pay the piper for past indiscretions. The artificially exorbitant cost of electricity is killing industry in Ontario, especially the manufacturing sector…and it’s going to get worse. And for what??? Wind farms that are, by any standard conceivable, grossly inefficient and expensive? And that only work when the wind happens to be blowing??? How many billions for all that??? That’s a bloody disaster Ontarians will be paying for until hell freezes over, and in so many ways! (…not that such idiocy was also replicated in a hundred other places, and pretty much with the same all too predictable results.)

        Shift in power, wealth and influence to the west? Certainly that’s a reality. But I don’t see how that necessarily undermines Ontario’s economics. For the most part, it remain a matter of being competitive…not just with western Canada, but globally, particularly with the northeaster US. The reality is that industry always has options, and they will exercise them when it becomes a matter of remaining profitable…or more profitable. That’s how free enterprise works, and as it should because that’s what keeps the system, but especially governments, honest. The notion that provinces or nations can operate inside of a bubble, especially these days, just won’t hold up.

        It’s too easy and simplistic to say, “Well, yeah, but they’ve got all that oil!” They used to say that about BC…”Well, yeah, but they’ve got all those resources!” Fact is, all that and a loony still won’t getcha a coffee if governments don’t properly facilitate development and infrastructure. Indeed, WAC Bennett railed against equalization back in the day because he maintained that it penalized success of good governments, while it encouraged dependency and underwrote irresponsibility of poor governments…most notably in Quebec, which he maintained was a potentially rich as any other region of Canada, given good government. Over four decades since of being on the dole, he was pretty much a prophet. At the time, P.E.T. called him a bigot.

        • Elisabeth Lindsay says:

          Also…..How come all of Saskatchewan`s lucrative resources were never discovered under the NDP, and since they`ve been booted out Saskatchewan is a power house?

          Resources don`t stop at provincial borders. There`s plenty in Northern Ontario and Northern Quebec too.

  7. Matt says:

    Honest opinion Warren:

    If you were with the Wynne camp, would you feel comfortable campaigning on the budget released yesterday?

    • Warren says:

      Nope. It’s a cynical pile of crap. Looks more like a rummage sale than a budget.

      • Matt says:

        It appears only the Toronto Star liked it. They were urging Horwath to support it.

        • Chris says:

          UNIFOR also asked her to support it.

          • Kelly says:

            Ontarians are not in a liberal-leftist benevolent mood and will be deaf to costly social engineering commitments, particularly higher payroll taxes. KEEP YOU HANDS OUT OF OUR POCKETS will be the Conservative mantra… and it will resonate too!

  8. John W. says:

    Political blunder in Dick, Marois, Redford proportions.
    She’s right of the Liberals ?
    Losing Unions en masse?
    Any MPPs walking?

  9. Bill Templeman says:

    Warren, you get kudos for admitting you were wrong. But do you think Horwath was wrong in her decision to not support the Libs? Did she just make a big mistake?

  10. Matt says:

    Looks like Wynne has gone to the LG to dissolve the Legislature.

    Election day appears to be June 12th.

    Wynne expected to address media @ 2:30.

    • Matt says:

      I don’t know who wrote the speech Wynne just gave, but they need to be fired immediately.

      What a self congratulatory, is everyone elses fault piece of crap that was.

      She accused the NDP of having “pie in the sky ideas with no way to pay for them” Uh, excuse me, but didn’t the Liberals just announce $30 billion for transit without telling us how to pay for it?

    • Matt says:

      She already looks to be getting frustrated with reporters questions and the campaigning hasn’t even begun!

  11. debs says:

    stop the presses, this election being called with give rob ford incentive to hurry up with rehab and make it back to run as an independent, lol. I mean he has to move upwards if he ever plans to get to be the PM of canada.

  12. Kre8tv says:

    A budget that doesn’t budget, opposed by one party that thinks it can grow jobs by slashing everything and another that seems averse to doing anything that polls badly. What lousy range of choices Ontario have in front of them.

  13. Matt says:

    New EKOS, so take it for what it’s worth:

    Liberals 35%
    P.C. 32%
    NDP 22%

  14. Terry says:

    Wynne is terrible and that budget was a disgrace. Not a Liberal budget. Reminded me of poor old Frank Miller when he tried to propose a Liberal-style budget to stay in power in the 80s. Would never vote Hudak, can’t vote NDP. Guess I’m skipping this election….

    Anyway, Warren, any comments on this: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/chief-justice-denies-allegations-of-improper-contact-with-pmo/article18397514/? It’s an extraordinary troll-said/chief-justice-said story.

    • Matt says:

      Harper’s setting up an avenue for the 2015 election.

      The elected parliament vs unelected judges.

      Fits his tough on crime agenda – The parliament passes mandatory minimums (Not trying to start a debate about the effectiveness of mm here πŸ™‚ ) and judges refuse to hand them down. Trudeau has already stated he would remove mm and leave it up to the judges to decide.

      The supreme court shouldn’t be deciding on who can be a SCoC judge.

      The majority of Canadians support reform or elimination of the Senate. Judges block it.

      At least that’s my opinion on what he setting up for.

  15. Kelly says:

    Premier Horwath? Now you’re making another faulty prediction.

    I predict beleaguered Ontario taxpayers will turn sharp right and install a Premier Hudak with a majority government too!

    Ontarians are sick and tired of liberal-leftist social engineering when the global alligators are snapping at their jobs.

    As for increased taxes and costly promises, fugedabudit…!!

  16. boopsie says:

    I was wrong too
    .
    Watch last 15 minutes of CTV Power Play today and watch Craig Oliver shouting “THAT WAS A JACK LAYTON BUDGET AND SHE BLEW IT”

    Should be a fun five weeks…

    • Paul Brennan says:

      oh god craig oliver…why cant these guys retire…between him and Bob Cole at CBC its scary

  17. JH says:

    LOL! Craig Oliver thinks he has the right to tell every leader in this country what they should do and gets really snarky when he’s ignored. Never got over the fact he went canoe paddling with Trudeau Sr. It’s sad when highly respected people get beyond their best before date.

  18. Patrick B says:

    Warren’s soothsaying skills are limited, but at least he puts himself out there. He is right less than half of the time; I have no evidence to support this claim other than my own observational skills! πŸ™‚

    In a June election, we are going to return to a minority Liberal government, with an NDP opposition. The PC’s will be a close third. THAT IS THE PREFERABLE VIEW. With a first-past-the-post system, we will likely end up with a hamstrung Queen’s Park, with a (significant) minority government, which will continue to be Liberal, with a strong NDP minority.

    Tim Hudak will – in an ill-advised attempt to garner headlines and control the news cycle – suggest that the homeless should be jailed; nurses and teachers should be handled with a heavy hand; welfare should be cut. After his (inevitable) defeat at the polls, he will move to North Bay and take up golf.

    • corey says:

      Don’t know about that. There’s also good chance the election will be a polarized fight between 2 parties… And one will end up with a majority. Too early to tell what the trends are (as we saw in Quebec recently)

  19. doris says:

    If we are into predictions here’s mine:

    A minority Hudak and then gridlock as the libdip coalition realises that they can govern and he can’t – another election in three months. Should be an interesting year politically speaking.

Leave a Reply to Chris Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published.