— Musings —05.22.2014 06:37 PM
Told ya
Ipsos tonight:
Hudak PCs Slip (35%, -4), Horwath NDP Gain (28%, +4) and
Wynne Liberals Stall (31%, +1) among Decided Voters
But Ballot Box Bonus Belongs to Progressive Conservatives (41%, +6), Not Liberals (30%, -1) or NDP (26%, -2) among Likely Voters
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In BC, Alberta, and Quebec the winning party pulled somewhat higher vote percentage than polling indicated, generally about 5% or so.
Mood for change is still 72%.
19% still undecided, which is unusually high with just three weeks left.
Sticking with my prediction.
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http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6512
PCs lead everywhere, ‘cept the 416 and the north.
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With Hudak absent from the Northern Debate I believe that favours Horwath IF she turns on some gas and jump starts that momentum she had once.
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Not so fast with the “Told Ya’s” mister.
It would appear from the regional breakdowns, all of the NDP gains came from the 416, aka city of Toronto.
And the MOE is +/- 3.9%, basically the same as the PC loss and NDP gain.
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It’s still a toss-up and if anything the Liberals will get stronger as time goes by. I wonder — if the PCs stop using Hudak completely and hide him for the rest of the election, do you think folks would notice? I am beginning to think that the PCs should substitute in a small soap-dish as leader. It would have more charisma and sincerety and definitely increase their chances.
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The Liberal kiss of death happened today when they rolled Paul Martin on to the stage to scold Ontarians about that payroll tax. The next time Wynne or her ad gurus come out with the canard of 100,000 jobs cut by Hudak they’ll need to be reminded that the Wynne/Martin payroll tax will cut upwards of 150,000 from the private sector businesses and corporations. Not exactly the welcome mat to jump start Ontario is it?
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You make my point very effectively by dodging the underlying question I raised, namely: Can the PCs win this election without hiding their leader? It sure looks like the answer is that they are gonna try their darnedest to do just that. Tough row to hoe, but it can be done — hopefully sooner rather than later. The Ontario PCs need to focus much less on their leader and much more on telling the electorate exactly what they plan to do before the Liberals do it for them. Might already be too late though.
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Weird that evil is down 4 overall but up 6 amongst likelies…
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hmmm interesting ….Paul Martin wont help ….
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he is definitely a sign that the Wynne Liberals are desperate.
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I’m more interested regarding why it wasn’t Chretien. He knows a winner (and a loser) when he sees them. With political acumen that is almost second to none, that is obvious.
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Why would Chretien get involved? Wyyne’s campaign is being run by Martinites.
The Chretienites and the Martinites are like the old Hatfield’s and McCoy’s.
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Ipsos Reid is a pro-conservative pollster and is run by Darrel Bricker who is a conservative (and has been since the Mulroney years, yes?). Not sure why you report Ipsos as the most accurate pollster when they tend to have generous conservative numbers that don’t normally pan out.
Remember in the 2000 election when they predicted a week before the election that Jéan Chrétien might only win a Minority? Or when they had Harper at 42% support going into the 2011 Election and he didn’t even crack 40%?
I agree Hudak probably is the favourite to win this election because the Liberals have been in power for 10 years now and there is always a desire for change. Just don’t think they are going to win by as much as Ipsos Reid says.
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They’re the Ontario government pollster, doofus.
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Majority wins…
1993 – Libs – 41.3%
1997 – Libs – 38.5%
2000 – Libs – 40.8%
2011 – CPC – 39.62%
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Provincial polling hasn’t had a great track record but on a gut level? Even a reasonably good performance in the debate and the PCs could seal the deal. And this is too bad, because even with a platform that clearly doesn’t make any sense, the Liberal war room’s barely managed to lay a glove on Hudak so far.
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You mean the “Dream Team” of 2006, complete with Paul Martin coming along, isn’t doing it? By the way, the op-ed by Christina Blizzard reminded me of the “They’ll Go Neg” ad from that era.
Things could change, but I think it is a lot easier to tell someone on the phone “I / I Might / I am thinking about voting” to a pollster, then it is to go out and vote. And the PCs are playing to that.
The PCs don’t necessarily want new fans. They just want the fans they’ve got to come out to the concert.
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I wonder if anyone at OLP hq is saying in hushed tones “we should have been running Pupatello”
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Not just supporters of the OLP. Also PCs who never warmed to Hudak and NDPers who are pissed at Horwath.
She could have been a winner with a LOT of Ontarians.
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Aw what the hell. Just for giggles:
Today’s Forum Research poll for THE TORONTO STAR:
Libs – 41%
PC’s – 34%
NDP – 21%
Gee, Forum and the Star wouldn’t be trying to discourage the PC and NDP voters with this poll would they?
Naaaaahhhhhhh.
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But Matt. I thought you were counting ‘lawn signs’ isn’t that the measure of who’s going to win? Since you’ve told us there is a ‘sea of blue where you live?
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Um, actually no, I never said that. Read all my comments. You are confusing me with Bobby who is around London that said there is a “sea of blue” lawn signs where he lives.
Nice try though.
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media is funny…they hammer folks ,org, govt for being partisan and then they are worst for spinning polls …etc – they do it on readership and papers sold too…very troubled industry given internet but they dont help themselves…
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You’re right Paul. It’s the one thing I can’t stomach about elections. Polls and media slaves to them. It’s why I often turn off news entirely.
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I’d like to see what would happen if polling was banned during elections. I wonder what would happen to the voter turnout. Personally I think it would go up.
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I agree. Indeed, I’d bet that a graph comparing voter turnout to the advent of opinion polling over the last several decades would closely match. And thus suggest that one of the greatest contributors to decreasing participation in elections is polling ahead of the vote.
One is less motivated when the outcome appears to be a foregone conclusion, win or lose.
One might even argue that publishing poll results during an election is an effective method of suppressing votes.
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Of all of the pollsters, which is the one you find the most reliable/believable with their poll results?