06.02.2014 09:46 AM

Bricker does my thinking for me

I know, I know, pollsters get things wrong, these days.  Believe me, I know.

But Ipsos, Abacus and the precious few others who actually, you know, talk to real people still do fine work (and it’s why my firm uses them, by the way).

Darrell’s tweets below neatly summarize what I said to Lala over the weekend: (a) too many Liberal voters think they’re going to win, (b) so they haven’t paid enough attention to the intensity of Hudak’s vote; (c) the Wynne campaign has been all over the map – attacking the NDP, then talking up NDP-Liberal coalition; (d) attacking Hudak for his plan – but two weeks after the fact; and (e) believing everyone in the province remembers a budget that no one remembers, and calling that their plan.

Again: I would be surprised if half the province is actually aware there is a campaign going on.  And those circumstances always favour Conservatives. Ask Stephen Harper: he’s been winning for a decade with a smaller, but more-engaged voter base.  Apathy is his (and Hudak’s) friend.

 

 

32 Comments

  1. Coelocanth_Jones says:

    I’d forward this to my dad, but I’ve already heard from him how nobody in Ontario cares about the gas plant scandal and has always been a fan of Michele Landsberg despite being so pissed at Trudeau over the abortion decision he plans to vote Tory federally for the first time since the 80s

    • MississaugaPeter says:

      Don’t tell Scot or any Trudeau hipster/lemming whose lottery ticket to full-time employment is going to not come in. Garneau, where are you?

      I texted last week with an extremely powerful person and he and his posse are disappointed that Wynne is not doing better. Reason: They want her to win so that it will be easier for Harper to win next year. This person has voted Liberal all his life. The distaste for Trudeau is growing. And we have over a year to go.

    • Stan Ridley says:

      Corruption, incompetence and perhaps “lifestyle” leadership. Subconsciously, does anybody care about “lifestyle” issues and will it affect their voting decision/indecision?

      • Coelocanth_Jones says:

        My dad certainly does, but there are not enough people like him to make noise over these issues come 2015

  2. Al in Cranbrook says:

    When Conservatives indicate the NDP as their second choice, you know for certain that they’re downright seriously pissed with the Liberals.

    IMHO, I think a lot of Liberals are going to take a pass on election day because they simply can’t believe their party has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning anyway…backed up by their own consciences that says neither do they deserve to win.

  3. Matt says:

    Here’s his latest:
    #onpoli at what point does LPO start saying they might lose? Need threat to motivate their vote, but can’t cause panic. True dilemma.

    Hasn’t Wynne already screwed the pooch on this point?

    She’s said she wouldn’t rule out a coalition to take back power should Hudak win a minority. Some Liberal voters who were on the fence about actually getting off their ass to vote might look at that declaration and think they don’t need to vote.

  4. Kaiser Helmets 'n Motorbikes says:

    Off topic, but I would love to hear Warren’s opinion on this:

    http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/06/02/ontario-provincial-police-association-launches-unprecedented-attack-ads-against-tim-hudaks-tea-party-politics/

    I find it disturbing when the people we authorize to carry firearms through the neighbourhood (not to mention 6 figure salaries and a $million pension) start throwing their political weight around, but then again I’m the chief pencil sharpener at “PCHQ”.

    Warren, thoughts, is this a tempest in a teapot?

  5. Stan Ridley says:

    Will Ontarians who vote reveal that Ontario is polarizing between Hudak right and Horwath left and the Wynne centre gets rejected?

    I can see previous Liberal voters flocking over to the NDP to Stop Hudak.. and on June 13th we wake up to a Premier Horwath NDP government!

    I have this strange feeeling …..

    • Chris says:

      Not a chance. E best we can hope for is strategic voting for whichever left-leaning candidate is in the best position to win.

    • Matt says:

      Wynne isn’t centre.

      • Stan Ridley says:

        I was thinking she’s in the centre of a vortex… like in a swirling toilet bowl….. and Pupatello would have flushed both Horwath and Hudak down the crapper!

      • Craig says:

        What is Wynne then? And what is Horwath? And what is Hudak? It’s difficult to label any of them anymore.

  6. Chris says:

    Not a chance. The best we can hope for is strategic voting for whichever left-leaning candidate is in the best position to win.

    • Stan Ridley says:

      …”strategic voting” requires a planned effort by the NDP and Liberals to instruct left-leaning voters who to vote for… otherwise confusion reigns. Do you see any strategic voting plan being made between the NDP and Liberals? I thought not …..

  7. e.a.f. says:

    It is suggested the people of Ontario might want to get out and vote. If they don’t Hudak could win. What that means is they could get a government not unlike the one we hve in B.C. You know the one with the highest child poverty rate in Canada for 9 yrs (18.4%) and a deficit which went up 38%. since Christy Clark took office.

    Don’t confuse B.C. Liebeals with Ontario Liberals though. You see the B.C. Liebeals are endorsed by the Fraser Institute which receives very generous contributions from the Koch brothers. Why do I mention the Koch brothers. Well some of their nearest and dearest have been working on Hudak’s campaign. If they are interested in a Hudak win you can bet it won’t be in the average citizen in Ontario’s interest.

  8. Craig says:

    Ipsos & Bricker have a history of overestimating Conservative support, so I don’t get why you view them as such a reliable pollster. Abacus, who you just referred to, had a poll out an hour ago showing the Liberals ahead. And whether the Liberals win or not, the best Hudak is likely to do anyway is a minority, so it’s not like this election is going to be that great for him. With the NDP vote going down, Wynne is poised to do a lot better than people thought she was.

    • Matt says:

      Actually, it’s the opposite. Look at the chart Warren posted a few days ago.

      Conservative support is routinely underestimated. They poll below what they end up with on election night.

    • Matt says:

      Did you actually read the story at that link?

      Liberals lead by 7 with ELIGIBLE voters.

      That falls to a 2 point lead with LIKELY voters. That two point lead is a statistical tie.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*