06.11.2014 07:25 AM

Warren’s witty, wacky, wonky weather wizardry

Good morning, Ontario! This rainy morn, we have two Ekos and Forum meteorological predictions wreaking havoc with PC governing plans – but, remember, Forum and Ekos have previously promised one thing, and decidedly done another. Ipsos is rolling into our area at 6 p.m. tonight, and they tend to be more accurate that the other weather-predicting folks.

The Forum and Ekos prognostications – along with the actual weather, which looks super-crummy (and even scary) today and tomorrow – may have the unhelpful effect of persuading progressives they don’t need to leave the comfort of their couches.  Conservative voters, meanwhile, have a long-standing, well-documented tendency to come out in all kinds of weather.

Get ready for a crazy 48 hours, Ontario! The weather folks may be saying one thing – but the people on the ground may have other plans!

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36 Comments


  1. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    Matt says:

    Hmmmm.

    Wonder why the Forum poll released today has such a small sample size.

    Every other poll they’ve conducted had a sample size of over 1,000. For some reason, this last one only 739 people.

    Maybe they had to go small so they could get the Star the result they wanted.


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      Warren says:

      Ekos got the same result. That needs to be factored in.


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        Doodle says:

        Yup, but they were in consistent in disagreement with other pollsters until last week, particularly on their ‘likely voter’ numbers. Someone is going to end up with egg on their face after all this, it’s now just a matter of who.


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    Al in Cranbrook says:

    I’ve seen enough this morning to convince me that the Liberals internal polling has got them operating in full blown panic mode.

    As in, “guns in our streets” panic mode.

    IMHO, they’re about to get trashed and they know it.


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      davie says:

      “guns in our streets,’… is that an allusion to that G20 schmozzle in Toronto?


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        Al in Cranbrook says:

        https://twitter.com/Clint_Thomas73/status/476534994022961152/photo/1

        No explanation required.


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        Matt says:

        no. It’s in relation to a Paul Martin ad from 2006 that claimed a Harper government would put “soldiers in the streets……..with guns……….in our cities……….we’re not making this up.”

        Those same people who ran Martin’s campaign are running Wynne’s.


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        Al in Cranbrook says:

        Well, actually, I can think of one explanation…

        Maybe all the adults went for drinks to drown their sorrows, and left the kids in charge of the campaign.

        As someone once famously said, “You just cannot make up s*** like this!”


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        Elisabeth Lindsay says:

        Except that those were OPP guns, Davie.


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      Corey says:

      Looks to me more like the Liberals think they’ll win but are hoping to grab the NDP ridings in Toronto to slip into majority territory. Would explain why Wynne is spending the day in Toronto hitting all 7 NDP ridings.


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        Just askin' says:

        The Liberals are trying to scare NDP voters into voting for them. Pretty dumb strategy if you ask me.


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      TrueNorthist says:

      Everybody is in panic mode and if they aren’t they should be fired. But you must not be watching Sun News because if you were you would see some real panic. I think the PCs fear their own likely voters will not likely be voting at all.


    • Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
      Emil E says:

      You say “trashed”, I say “majority” based on a massive public service union turnout vote for the Wynne Liberals… plus, Dipper voters voting strategically for the Liberal candidates to Stop Hudak.

      The impact of the PS vote cannot be easily picked up in polling but it hangs over this election like a 10 tonne block of sh!t !!


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    Karl says:

    The Tim Hudak post-debate gallstone has passed through the system and a Liberal majority seems quite plausible to me.

    At a minimum, Liberals will strengthen their numbers against the 48 seats pre-election and I believe, better the 53 won by Dalton McGuinty on election day 2011.


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      Matt says:

      This whole campaign has been one big shit sandwich on all sides.

      It’s going to come down to who can convince their supporters to take the biggest bite.

      I won’t predict an outcome. But I will predict a new record low voter turnout. Somewhere around 45%.


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        Warren says:

        Agree on every point. What a shambles this thing has been. Reflects badly on all participants.


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          Emil E says:

          Is it bush league political campaign strategizing? Of course, the public service union vote is the big X-factor in this whole debate.


  4. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    Corey says:

    Interestingly in 2011 Forum & Abacus’ final polls were closest to the result on e-day. Ipsos was not that close.


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      Warren says:

      Forum’s results are crap. I like Frank, even if he is a Martinite.


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        Corey says:

        I agree about Frank. EKOS’ likely voter model seems to be well constructed. I guess Forum got lucky in 2011 (admittedly they’ve been way off in other recent elections).


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    Mark says:

    A few of things about Ipsos:
    1) They rely more heavily on online polls than other pollsters. Online polls aren’t considered reliable, since they’re not random sample.
    2) Ipsos is the outlier, compared to the others.
    3) A few pollsters are making a “Likely Voter” adjustment, but Ipsos’ adjustment is much bigger than anyone else – and it’s the adjustment that’s giving the PCs such a good showing.


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    doconnor says:

    Based on the polls, a boost in Conservative voting seems more likely to prevent a Liberal majority, triggering a more left-wing NDP-Liberal coalition, then leading to a Conservative government. That’s FPP for ya.


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      Emil E says:

      If there is a Wynne minority government and a de facto coalition with the NDP approving the Liberal Budget, that will end Horwath’s leadership and force her to resign. Remember the recent traitorous backstabbing by the NDP “toxic 34” who attacked Horwath for moving to the right of the Liberals… and they will demand Horwath’s resignation!

      I suspect Horwath is a Dead Dipper Duck anyway.


  7. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    Rotten Ronnie says:

    OMG!! Paul the Octopus just predicted that Wynne would even lose her own seat!!!!


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      Coelocanth_Jones says:

      I thought he died after the last world cup. In any case, Canada has developed a trend of seeing premiers lose their seat over the past few elections, let’s see if it continues


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    debs says:

    thunderstorms on the rise, the apocalypse is imminent!


  9. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    Emil E says:

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…. the 1.2 million public service vote will give the Wynne Liberals a majority government or at worse a minority government and if the latter they will again table their last NDP-style Budget and proclaim that voting Ontarians have given the Liberals a clean bill of political health.

    Then we will watch Horwath twisting in the wind and going back on her declaration that the Liberals were corrupt and she had no confidence in them whatsoever. Perhaps Horwath will quickly resign as leader and the NDP will simply support Wynne on the Budget.

    Hudak may or may not survive, but he will claim the NDP is in the Liberal’s pocket and are political traitors to their own principles…. and the big loser will be the taxpayers and non-union workers of Ontario. Just watch!


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    patrick says:

    I think polls should be banned, or the release of poll information banned during election. I think it creates a herd mentality and affects the individual choice. Why should we be skewed by narrowly framed questions to 1000 people. Really, other than for the parties running I can see no benefit to their existence during an election.


  11. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    doconnor says:

    The weather turned out to be prefect for voting in the Toronto Area. Not bad enough to keep people away from the polls, not nice enough to do something else.

    Maybe the Liberal majority is the result of that.

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