— Musings —08.28.2014 06:12 AM
— Musings —08.28.2014 06:12 AM
I don’t expect details, but has internal polling done by the Chow campaign given any indications where the Stintz support has landed?
Or is it too soon to tell?
There was no Stintz support.
Zing!
But seriously, what was she at – 2% or 3%?
In a tight 3 person race, that could be the difference btween winning and losing.
From a distance (former Toronto resident), it seems to me that a lot of Chow supporters just don’t appreciate how severely the David Miller regime tainted the left/progressive cause in Toronto. For example, the garbage strike uber-fiasco. Chow is identified as the successor candidate for the left/prog cause. Assuming that her candidacy is in fact salvagable, I think she needs to do and say some things that would really reassure voters that she wouldn’t be Miller and Company Redux. The sense I get from her campaign is that her people just think that all bien pensant people ought to vote for her — when I listen to her supporters, they espouse this sort of sense of entitlement — as though “Olivia’s progressive, Ford’s not, so Olivia deserves to be mayor”.
Plus this spitting contempt for John Tory doesn’t, IMO, come off well. He’s not Harper, for Crissakes, ordinary people just don’t viscerally hate him the way that certain Chow partisans do. Yes, he’s got flaws and he’s charisma-challenged, but ordinary people look at him and see a reasonable guy with a reasonable brain in his head. Anyone who truly knows, or knows about, John Tory knows that he comes from the old Red Tory Bill Davis/Clark/Mulroney/Campbell wing of the party. A fiscal conservative social liberal, more or less. So trying to paint him as some sort of retro-social Conservative is just stupid and off-target. There are a lot of fiscal conservative social liberals in Toronto, and a lot of those people would be naturally inclined to see Tory as the obvious alternative to Ford.
so basically Tory is an elite version of Harper. got it.
Yeah, except for a few inconvenient facts, like for example the fact that Harper belongs to some loo loo evangelical church and Tory emphatically does not. And the fact that Harper was a prominent Reform Party founder and MP, whereas throughout Reform’s entire existence Tory didn’t touch that party with a barge pole.
Yeah, except for a few inconvenient facts. Like, for example, the fact that Harper belongs to some loo loo evangelical church, and Tory emphatically does not. And the fact that Harper was a very prominent Reform Party MP and original cast member, whereas throughout the Reform Party’s entire existence John Tory didn’t touch it with a barge pole.
Ironically, the garbage strike uber-fiasco was the most right-wing thing Miller did, and it sunk him. Making peace with the unions was the most left-wing thing that Ford did, and it gave him a bragging point. (I’m not saying it was a win for the unions, but it wasn’t a lock-out).
Fair enough point about Miller’s true role in the garbage strike, but that came to be seen as emblematic of the failure of his regime and the whole fact that he was indeed close to the unions and was backed by the unions because of his NDP cred. Sometimes politicians get tagged with stuff just because it happened during their watch. Jimmy Carter and the Iran hostage crisis is a classic example. Carter ended up wearing the toilet seat around his neck for 25+ years of f*cked up American foreign policy towards Iran. Was that fair? Hell no, but that’s the way things go sometimes.
If John Tory cared about democracy, he would drop out of the race in order not to split the anti-Ford vote.
Olivia Chow has proven that she is the only candidate who can beat Rob Ford. If John Tory had integrity, he would drop out.
I’ve heard that statement about Chow being the only candidate who can beat Ford many times. I’m a Chow supporter and would love to see Tory drop out of the race. But I have absolutely no idea how that statement makes any sense. It’s a lousy campaign slogan, and there’s just no way to prove or disprove it until the election happens. And it looks particularly delusional when Chow is third in the polls. I hope she figures out a better way to up her game.
I agree. I would like Olivia to win, thats where my heart is, but I would rather Ford lose if push comes to shove. I’m guessing a lot of voters are going to vote for whoever is polling consistently higher between Olivia and Tory, and right now that looks like Tory. I’m hearing more people who are traditional liberals settling into the Tory camp over the past couple of weeks. Olivia’s just seemed underwhelming and gimmicky, if I’m honest with myself.
I don’t live in Ontario anymore but if Olivia Chow wins, then they will declare it an “upset” and sell lots of papers.
I don’t think it is a question of John Tory coming up the middle, unless you mean his ideological placement between Chow and Ford. If Forum is accurate in the order of preference, then John Tory will be a huge beneficiary of votes that would otherwise have gone to Olivia Chow. Much as the NDP core may stay with Olivia, the horrifying prospect of another Ford term will drive a lot of progressive voters to vote for John Tory simply because of their abhorrence of Ford.
It is completely in keeping with Warren’s original argument that had forces coalescing around Olivia but adjusted for Tory apparently being in first and Chow in 3rd. Put another way, perceived momentum for Ford brings a corresponding benefit to the one perceived as most likely to defeat him.
Does anyone know a single Tory voter?
I mean there are the wanna be pragmatist rock stars on twitter who pretend Tory would ‘work’ as mayor.
But IRL I’ve meet none.
I have 55 staff and none have ever mentioned Tory.
My real life poll ….
Chow 39
Ford 29
Tory 0
“What election?” 33
Hmmm… employer wants to know my political intention. There is no way that is above the board
Sadly, I met quite a few when I canvassed a street in the Beaches area last weekend. First and foremost they were “Anyone-But-Ford” and will vote for whomever could defeat Ford. But because Tory was/is perceived to be “leading” (based on superficial scans of newspaper headlines ‘cuz thats all the time most people have for reading the paper these days) they were going to vote for Tory. If Chow were “perceived” to be leading they’d vote for Chow. This is why the Chow camp NEEDS to start changing the media narrative from Chow “fading” (to quote one columnist and headline) to “surging” or “back on track” or whatever. I don’t really know how this is done, but I do think Warren is onto a potential approach with his tweet (the one from today not that OTHER one).
Absolutely true. The anyone-but-Ford crew see Tory at the top of the polls with Ford in second and decide to vote Tory, so popularity begets popularity.
It’s certainly not too late for Chow, but it’ll take a Tory stumble and a Chow win. Miller beat Tory by out-arguing him in the final weeks. Chow could do that too, but it has to be a specific message that resonates with voters. And that, of course, is the gold that all politicians pan for.
One gets the impression you haven’t done much talking to people who live in Rosedale, Forest Hill, Lawrence Park, North Toronto . . .
Just a wild, crazy guess, but he probably polls a lot better than zero in those parts.
True.
I guess we will see when the signs go up.
2:1 Odds
Well, hope springs eternal e.g. “Soknacki’s team is quick to remind people often that Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi was in third place at 8 per cent in the polls just one month before his own first victory” (Star).
Sadly and realistically, the smart money is on Ford surging through in some kind of angry, populist backlash against perceived smug elitism inherent in Tory and Chow e.g. “A Toronto Mayor Rob Ford supporter grabs a LGBT protester by the neck at Rob Ford’s Ford Fest which was held at Scarborough’s Thomson Memorial Park, Friday July 25, 2014”
Call it the Putinization of politics. The masses – often their own worst enemy – seem to adore a fascist.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/25/booze-free-ford-fest-kicks-off-with-mayoral-rival-sarah-thomson-riding-in-on-a-horse/
I think you’ve got the point. The press, particularly the Star with their unabated attacks have actually mad an everyman hero out of Ford.
Olivia foolishly gave up her seat and allowed team Trudeau to trounce the Federal NDP which hurt her party. Olivia foolishly aligned herself with non influential Liberals who are shut from the Wynne circle while the insider Liberal are all Tory supporters. Olivia foolishly showed a lack of character when she refused to endorse Joe Cressy. Olivia showed a lack of rational decision making when she mindlessly attempted to distance herself from Kinsella. As if anyone would be believe that one! Olivia wore a ridiculous Caribana costume that made her look crazy. Summary = Olivia is an unwise politician who is over rated. Tory is the next mayor. Maybe even Robbie. Can you imagine? Damn Toronto.
Wow.
1. You don’t think Adam and Olivia are chums?
2. Do you think your host is washed up? I’d love to set the twats ablaze in this city with a single tweet.
3. I hope I look that ‘crazy’ in a bikini at her age.
Wynne is still premier. Damn Toronto and damn Ontario! Seen that debt number lately? Criminal.
… which goes to prove that Ontarians are easily spooked at election time… besides the sheer utter stupidity of the Hudak and Horwath campaigns. Now we watch Chow go up in flames, Ford gets his comeuppance, and Tory inadvertantly sliding into office. Ontario is a mishugena province that gets what it deserves!!
We are about to be bombarded with advertising. Much of it will contain reminders of Ford and his antics. Also, I am certain that the anti-Ford camps have a few aces up their sleeve for the last 10 of campaign.
Reprobate Ford will be seen as a jolly fat lovable cartoon character who offers the moon and provides sludge…. just like Justin!
uh oh we got ourselves a new one named conbot
Conbot?????
That much punctuation? You sound very alarmist over practically nothing
Oops sorry. That should be made a hero
Regarding the comments about Tory dropping out, to prevent Ford from winning, I’m frankly getting a bit tired of that song every time there is a three-way (or multi-way) race. You can draw commonality between any two candidates, and urge one of them to drop out to avoid vote-splitting. Strange how no one ever urges their own candidate to drop out; it’s always directed at the other candidate.
Chow and Tory are the anti-Ford? Perhaps Tory and Ford are the right-wing anti-Chow. Or perhaps Chow and Ford are the maverick anti-establishment anti-Tory. Bottom line, each candidate has their own virtues, vices, commonalities, and differences. Stop trying to get your candidate a win by urging others to drop out. Instead, focus on getting your candidate a win by being the best candidate.
Exactly.
If Toronto implemented single transferable vote, this problem of vote splitting would be eliminated. The city was working towards this. I assume Chow supports it. Does Tory?
STV is such a complete nightmare to explain. This is from the BC STV referendum in 2005. The animation is quaint, but it was almost a decade ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-4_yuK-K-k
Not impossible to follow, but really involved.
They fly through the explanation of the votes needed to win a seat in six seconds!
Lots of people couldn’t understand the system and lots voted against it for that reason.
The system in Toronto would be a lot simpler, with no parties, no multi-member ridings and no unbelievably tedious explanation videos.
Why does some candidate in the next debate not just turn to MR F. and say:
“What are you doing here? You have no realistic policies! You’ve embarrassed the city the province & the country! You showed up drunk for work, pissed in a school parking lot & smoked crack as mayor. Your opinions are not valid you need to simply go away!
I think that candidate would win the election.
People have been pointing that out ad nauseam for months now and it’s had little effect, other than taking Ford down a few points to the seemingly firm base level he’s at in the polls. Everything you point out is now old news. If you think that’s going to come as some game-changing dramatic shocker in the next debate, I wonder where you’ve been the last year or so. As they say in the securities business, the market has already absorbed this news. It’s not a problem with the information not being out there, it’s just that the market (i.e., the voting public) is not reacting to it in the way you’d like. Steve T’s post above hits the nail on the head. The way to win this thing is to talk about why you’re the best candidate for mayor, not why Ford’s a mess. The people who care about the fact that Ford’s a mess are already not going to vote for him. What’s in play is whom they’re going to vote for instead. I suspect that’s why the All-Wise Swami WK has spent the last while mostly with his guns turned on Tory, not Ford.
Ford = Extreme Right
Chow = Extreme Left
Tory = Extremely Bland ….. and the winner is…….
“Bland sells” according to Bill Davis.
Chow’s problem is that she has campaigned too far to the right. She perceived her weakness to be the notion that she is not fiscally responsible, and has tried to campaign on her fiscal responsibility bona fides. By doing this she has lost everyone.
The people who believe her to be a “tax & spend” socialist are never going to believe her fiscal bona fides. No matter how many poor immigrant stories you put out there. The people that were going to vote for her didn’t care about the fiscal management, but she’s lost them because she hasn’t articulated any grand vision for the city.
Her core supporters don’t want a bean counter, and she’s tried to portray herself as the bean counter in chief. You dance with those that brung you. And so far Chow has not done that very well.
From this end of the country the comedy that is Toronto politics needs another great guffaw. Go Rob Ford!
The arse end?
Bwahahahahaha Kasper the unfriendly ghoul thinks I live in Toronto. Bwahahahahahahahaha! As has been oft said: If you want to Canada an enema Toronto is where you insert the tube.
You, sir, are an enema of the state.
Not to worry, he’ll get his in the end. (It’s a double entendre weekend!)
I imagine you yell at your printer imagining it’s me.
I’ll bet that sounded a lot better in your head that it reads on the net.
That could be said about all your posts Professor Joe