09.15.2014 09:22 AM

My take in this morning’s Hill Times

Can’t remember my password, so here’s the unedited version, filed with ’em last week:

“Political things tend to come in threes. This Parliament is likely to be no exception. Three things – three issues, three challenges – will define the coming session.

One, the war that isn’t a war. Stephen Harper’s insists that his decision to commit dozens of members of the Special Operations Regiment to the fight against the murderous, rampaging ISIS is nothing to worry about. It isn’t “war.” But he isn’t being truthful.

On its web site, the regiment describes itself as a “weapon” in the Canadian Armed Forces’ “arsenal” – that is, peacekeepers they are not. They are trained to fight, and equipped to fight. They are going to Iraq to wage war.

Harper may pretend that isn’t so, but few will be fooled. As is the case with our Western allies, we are commencing a post-9/11 type of war against an enemy unlike any we have ever encountered. How Canadians – and Parliamentarians – react to that remains to be seen.

Two, the fate of the New Disappearing Party. In British Columbia; in Nova Scotia; in Ontario; in New Brunswick; federally. The NDP is in deep trouble, provincially and federally, and the reasons are myriad.

Jack Layton is gone, and Tom Mulcair is no Jack Layton. Traditional sources of NDP support – particularly trade unions – are contracting, and no longer pledging fealty solely to New Democrat candidates. And the party seems uncertain about what to do about the resurgent Liberals, who are stealing soft NDP voters away, hand over fist.

The NDP is in trouble. To preserve its Parliamentary bench strength – almost wholly situated in Quebec – it may start mouthing sovereigntist rhetoric. But if it does that, it risks an angry backlash in the rest of Canada.

What will the New Demoracts do? No one knows – and New Democrats apparently don’t, either. The coming months are unlikely to be happy ones, for them.

Third, the people are sick of Harper’s Cons. They’ve been in power for nearly a decade, and it shows. The Tories look old and tired and fundamentally out of ideas. They’ll trumpet a budgetary surplus, to be sure, but that is never enough to win re-election.

Instead, the Conservatives need to re-capture a narrative, because they decidedly do not have one anymore. It isn’t enough to say “you’re better off with Harper.” That sounds like someone deciding to stay in loveless relationship because they have nowhere else to go.

Canadians have somewhere to go, and it is into Justin Trudeau’s waiting arms. Nearly every poll has shown him ahead, or far ahead, for nearly two years. And neither the Tories nor the Dippers have devised a strategy to change that.

A war no one understands. A New Democratic Party that no longer seems new. A Conservative Party that is adrift.

It all points in one direction, and in less than a year, too:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

17 Comments


  1. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    Ridiculosity says:

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – by a landslide.


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    Tired of it All says:

    Hey man, Martin had surpluses. Lots of ’em, and Canadians gave him the keys to the backbench. If Harpo wants to run on ‘it’s better with me,’ we need to ask two questions: is it?; and should it be? From where I sit; from where my friends sit; the answer is manifestly “no.” So if he frames his election question that way, and he apparently will, he’s running a huge risk and looks to be on the wrong side of it. I think he should have chosen ‘I will make it better.’ But that contradicts his economic sub-text that it is better already. Hmmmm


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    Lee Jacobs says:

    “you’re better off with Harper.” – “That sounds like someone deciding to stay in loveless relationship because they have nowhere else to go.” – the reason I read your site every day. Gold baby.


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    debs says:

    this should be one of the major issues, and Mulcair is fighting it with lizzie may. Wheres trudeau, oh, he voted with the cons. Were gonna get screwed again no matter whether its libs or cons.
    http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/09/15/Harpers-FIPA/


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    sezme says:

    If I were the Mulcair and the NDP at this point, I don’t think I’d particularly mind low expectations. Worked for “Yesterday’s Man”. And high expectations haven’t done Olivia any favours.


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    Brachina says:

    You missed your target on this one, Warren. I’ll point out that leaders can lead in polls for along time before dropping in the polls, just look at Chow in TO, she was leading in so many polls it looked like a cake walk, then pow she dropped like stone.

    And Warren you better pray we don’t end up with Prime Minister JT we all know he’s not up to the job.


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      Kaspar Juul says:

      What’s a Brachina?


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        Kevin T. says:

        A figure of desperation clinging to a repetitive chant.


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          smelter rat says:

          Haha!


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    Joe says:

    I for one am not about to predict the outcome of an election a year in advance. I’ve seen too many ‘locked up’ elections go the other way in the last few days of the campaign. There are simply too many variables that come into play. The New Disappearing Party may ‘disappear’ its leader. JT’s Bozo Eruptus syndrome may be reported in the MSM and have real consequences. PM Harper may step aside. All I know right now is that no one is really paying attention to politics and the rantings of the media with the exception of political junkies. It is often stated that a week is an eternity in politics. So a year is 52 eternities.


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      Kaspar Juul says:

      9 sentences to say “It’s too early to tell.”

      Don’t let anyone ever accuse you of beating around the bush Joe.


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    davie says:

    I am just watching debate on CPAC on the so called Energy security and Safety Bill, and you *^@%( conservatives are at it again, and you &^*^^ are la-de-daing along with them…you #~^^ free enterprisers are again legislating liability cap for energy industries, so that if a spill and contamination, the cap is 1 billion.

    Why a cap at all? Let the industry pay its full insurance premiums. Let the industry be its self reliant, ruggedly individualistic blah blah blah!

    Man, this hypocrisy, this irresponsibility has bugged me for years, and now you entrepreneurs are subsidizing these parasites again.

    I am only one vote, and only one sign builder, but you can bet which parties I will not be working for.


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    Al in Cranbrook says:

    When the election is finally on, and front and center, people start paying actual attention.

    Case in point: Olivia Chow, clear winner by a landslide in spring polling. Now in free fall at 19% and trailing a somewhat progressive conservative and a hard core conservative. In Toronto.

    IMHO, if JT is going to win in Oct. 2015, he’s going to have to add at least 35 points onto his IQ just to get anywhere remotely close to the guy currently holding down the job.

    Mid term polls mean nothing, and the Liberals have 13 years worth of them on file to prove it.


    • Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
      Kaspar Juul says:

      “Case in point: Olivia Chow, clear winner by a landslide in spring polling. Now in free fall at 19% and trailing a somewhat progressive conservative and a hard core conservative. In Toronto.”

      Not really a case nor have you proven your point. Olivia chow is not some standard bearer of the plight of the left. I know you like to give the impression you’re knowledgeable but back to the whiteboard to actually prove whatever flimsy case you are presenting.

      “IMHO, if JT is going to win in Oct. 2015, he’s going to have to add at least 35 points onto his IQ just to get anywhere remotely close to the guy currently holding down the job.”

      Unquantifiable statement from the guy that repeatedly predicted an epic Hudak majority. Petty and mean spirited- consider the source.

      “Mid term polls mean nothing, and the Liberals have 13 years worth of them on file to prove it.”

      Nonsense statement laced with bravado. You make saying nothing sound definitive Al


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    Alphonso says:

    Don’t write off Harper yet because he will have a huge surplus and will come up with a surprise when he announces more tax cuts… even dropping the GST down to 4%. Libs and Dipps will scream tax tax tax because Canadians don’t know how to spend their money and only government can do that.

    Also, the depressed NDP will likely launch a scorched earth attack on Justin, particularly in Quebec where the Trudeau name is despised. The NDP has got to go for Justin’s jugular to survive as OOP.

    All those polls are yesterday’s poll for a yesterday election… and the real campaign is starting now. Hold on to your butt because it’s gonna be a bumpy ride!!


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      Kaspar Juul says:

      Yes because the entire world has been seen by the Delphi oracle known as Alphonso!


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    ottlib says:

    I have noticed that Conservative supporters have been harping on the notion that Mr. Trudeau is inexperienced and in the end Canadians will decide to stick with the “safe” choice of the more experienced Mr. Harper.

    The problem with that is many Liberals were saying exactly the same thing about Mr. Harper and Mr. Martin in 2005. They believed that it was highly unlikely that Canadians would risk handing the levers of power to an untested and somewhat unsettling character in Mr. Harper when they had the proven deficit slayer in Paul Martin to choose instead. They were wrong of course.

    There are differences between now and then certainly. The Liberals have been leading in the polls for 18 months and counting while the Harper Conservatives never lead the Liberals until the third week of the 2006 election and even then it took the announcement by the RCMP of the launching of an Income Trust investigation to move the polls in Mr. Harper’s favour. As well, Canadians have never really warmed to Mr. Harper while a sizable chunk of them seem to genuinely like Mr. Trudeau.

    A simple fact is if Canadians decide they want a change in 2015 all Mr. Trudeau has to do is look non-threatening and he will win, at least a minority government and a majority if he can actually connect with voters.

    Another simple fact for the NDP is when Canadians want to change Federal governments they always switch between the Liberals and Conservatives. The 2006 election notwithstanding there is absolutely no evidence that Canadians have changed that historical pattern.

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